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Red Hat Regatta

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Grosse Pointe South High School Grosse Pointe South High School Yellow (Mixed) 25 14 39
2 Novi Novi Wildcats 32 15 47
3 Spring Lake High School Spring Lake High School Red 32 22 54
4 West Bloomfield High School West Bloomfield High School WB Green 33 36 69
5 Spring Lake High School Spring Lake High School Grey 35 63 98
6 Traverse City Central Traverse City Central TCC Varsity Black 64 68 132
7 St. Francis High School Traverse City St. Francis High School Traverse City TCSF Varsity Blue 88 54 142
8 Culver Academies Culver Academies Eagles white 82 70 152
9 Culver Academies Culver Academies Eagles maroon 88 76 164
10 Traverse City West Traverse City West TCW Varsity Green 85 81 166
11 Cranbrook Kingswood Cranbrook Kingswood Cranbrook Green 66 MRP 108 MRP 174 MRP
12 Spring Lake High School Spring Lake High School Black Mixed 110 64 174
13 Mercy/University of Detroit Jesuit Mercy/University of Detroit Jesuit MUDJ 94 83 177
14 Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI BRMS Blue Mixed 60 119 179
15 Grosse Ile High School Grosse Ile High School GI Grey - MIXED 98 85 183
16 Troy High School Troy High School Troy Mixed 75 131 206
17 Traverse City West Traverse City West TCW Mixed 144 85 229
18 Detroit Country Day School Detroit Country Day School MIXED Gold 95 154 249
19 Birmingham Public Schools Birmingham Public Schools Mixed 103 158 261
20 Grosse Ile High School Grosse Ile High School GI White - MIXED 121 141 262
21 West Bloomfield High School West Bloomfield High School MIXED White 141 122 263
22 Cranbrook Kingswood Cranbrook Kingswood Cranbrook White 163 MRP 107 MRP 270 MRP
23 Traverse City Central Traverse City Central TCC Mixed 139 143 282
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 TOT Sailors
Grosse Pointe South High School Grosse Pointe South High School Yellow (Mixed) 3 8 3 4 3 2 2 25 Lauren Carron '24
Doug Cowan '22
Spring Lake High School Spring Lake High School Red 4 1 9 5 5 5 3 32 Zoe Czadzeck '20
Abby Airo '20
Novi Novi Wildcats 5 6 1 7 8 4 1 32 Michael Kirkman '21
Matthew Pacas-Mccarthy '21
West Bloomfield High School West Bloomfield High School WB Green 6 2 7 1 6 7 4 33 Matthew Elliott '20
Anthony Dziuba '21
Spring Lake High School Spring Lake High School Grey 2 3 4 2 2 16 6 35 Bryson Hough '21
Griffin Phares '21
Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI BRMS Blue Mixed 9 7 10 3 7 10 14 60 Owen Bannasch '22
Caitlin Condon '23
Traverse City Central Traverse City Central TCC Varsity Black 7 11 2 8 10 13 13 64 Kai Oslund Dolan '20
Abigail Paul '21
Cranbrook Kingswood Cranbrook Kingswood Cranbrook Green 1 5 6 DNF 4 1 5 66 MRP Charlie Gonzalez '23
Jack Harman '23
Troy High School Troy High School Troy Mixed 15 9 8 16 1 3 23 75 Emily Pytell '21
Aarush Kapur '25
Culver Academies Culver Academies Eagles white 10 13 12 14 9 8 16 82 Jason Nguyen '22
Tianze Shou '21
Traverse City West Traverse City West TCW Varsity Green 18 14 11 6 14 14 8 85 Liam Clone '20
Ella Beck '22
St. Francis High School Traverse City St. Francis High School Traverse City TCSF Varsity Blue 13 10 5 12 16 15 17 88 Gabe Maday '22
Ryan Schmidt '21
Culver Academies Culver Academies Eagles maroon 23 15 13 10 11 6 10 88 Lars Hansen '20
Douglas Rassi '23
Mercy/University of Detroit Jesuit Mercy/University of Detroit Jesuit MUDJ 8 4 16 11 21 19 15 94 Gavin Lamphier '22
Nathan Green '22
Detroit Country Day School Detroit Country Day School MIXED Gold 17 17 18 13 12 9 9 95 Liam Hounsell '23
Andy Zhu '23
Grosse Ile High School Grosse Ile High School GI Grey - MIXED 11 23 17 15 13 12 7 98 Rylan Van De Wettering '20
Eva Ottenbreit '22
Birmingham Public Schools Birmingham Public Schools Mixed 14 12 15 19 15 17 11 103 Luke Strickland '22 [1-4, 6-7]
Eric Ellison '24 [5]
Eric Ellison '24 [1-4, 6-7]
Luke Strickland '22 [5]
Spring Lake High School Spring Lake High School Black Mixed 16 18 22 9 22 11 12 110 Jack Hubbard '25
Ani Hough '24
Grosse Ile High School Grosse Ile High School GI White - MIXED 12 16 19 17 18 18 21 121 Jimmy Souilliere '23
Norton Coulibaly '23
Traverse City Central Traverse City Central TCC Mixed 20 21 14 18 23 21 22 139 Trey Harding '23
Case Brooks '24
West Bloomfield High School West Bloomfield High School MIXED White 21 20 23 21 17 20 19 141 Frank Bachulis '22
Liam Gilin '25
Traverse City West Traverse City West TCW Mixed 19 22 20 22 19 22 20 144 Andrew Godmer '22
Holden Trapp '26
Cranbrook Kingswood Cranbrook Kingswood Cranbrook White 22 19 21 20 20 23 18 163 MRP Madison Fan '20
Serena Zhang '21
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 TOT Sailors
Grosse Pointe South High School Grosse Pointe South High School Yellow (Mixed) 1 1 1 3 4 3 1 14 Christina Thomas '21 [1-7]
Andrew Michels '21 [1-4]
Eva Paschke '20 [5-7]
Novi Novi Wildcats 3 2 4 1 1 2 2 15 Conner Kirkman '23
Ed Stone '23
Spring Lake High School Spring Lake High School Red 2 3 3 2 2 7 3 22 Ryan Peterson '20
Carter Walker '20
West Bloomfield High School West Bloomfield High School WB Green 6 6 2 5 3 4 10 36 Jake Elsen '21
Walter Paliga '22
St. Francis High School Traverse City St. Francis High School Traverse City TCSF Varsity Blue 4 4 15 11 5 6 9 54 Luke Adams '24
Joe Thuente '20
Spring Lake High School Spring Lake High School Grey 9 7 5 7 8 16 11 63 Claire Deblanc '20
Ben Dornbush '22
Spring Lake High School Spring Lake High School Black Mixed 8 5 14 20 11 1 5 64 Nyle Eggert '24 [1-7]
Ryan Bonney '24 [1-3]
Brooklyn Verplank '25 [4-7]
Traverse City Central Traverse City Central TCC Varsity Black 5 17 8 9 14 9 6 68 Hunter Hawes '21
Colin Gordon '22
Culver Academies Culver Academies Eagles white 7 9 9 13 7 10 15 70 Pranjal Singh '21
William Booth '22
Culver Academies Culver Academies Eagles maroon 12 8 7 6 6 13 DSQ 76 Ethen Stone '21
Nate Burke '21
Traverse City West Traverse City West TCW Varsity Green 13 11 6 14 13 8 16 81 Bryce Wilmoth '20
Nic Zenner '21
Mercy/University of Detroit Jesuit Mercy/University of Detroit Jesuit MUDJ 10 14 18 10 12 5 14 83 Nick Myneni '22
Abbey Baetz '21
Traverse City West Traverse City West TCW Mixed 11 12 13 12 10 15 12 85 Lucas Rodenroth '24
Gavin Graetz '26
Grosse Ile High School Grosse Ile High School GI Grey - MIXED DSQ 13 11 8 9 12 8 85 Anna Mcaughey '24
Kellan Knapp '25
Cranbrook Kingswood Cranbrook Kingswood Cranbrook White 15 10 10 18 16 11 7 107 MRP Ryan Michalak '23
Jack Harman '23
Cranbrook Kingswood Cranbrook Kingswood Cranbrook Green 14 18 16 4 18 14 4 108 MRP Roxanne Shaviro '22
Serena Zhang '21
Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI BRMS Blue Mixed 16 16 RAF 15 17 18 13 119 Caden Meyers '22
Jace Bishop '23
West Bloomfield High School West Bloomfield High School MIXED White 18 15 17 16 21 17 18 122 Ronnie Budka '21
Brent Armstrong '25
Troy High School Troy High School Troy Mixed 20 19 12 17 22 20 21 131 Will Hilborn '22
Rodrigo Flores '24
Grosse Ile High School Grosse Ile High School GI White - MIXED DNF DNF 19 21 15 19 19 141 Gillian Bellard '25 [1-2, 5]
Sydney Porter '24 [3-4, 6-7]
Sydney Porter '24 [1-2, 5]
Gillian Bellard '25 [3-4, 6-7]
Traverse City Central Traverse City Central TCC Mixed 19 20 DNF 19 19 22 20 143 Cole Harding '23 [1-2, 5-7]
Jr Bergerson '24 [3-4]
Jr Bergerson '24 [1-2, 5-7]
Cole Harding '23 [3-4]
Detroit Country Day School Detroit Country Day School MIXED Gold DNS DNS DNS DNS 20 21 17 154 Miles Laker '23
Groves Destin '22
Birmingham Public Schools Birmingham Public Schools Mixed 17 21 DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 158 Gavin Swallow '22
Sean Ellison '25
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.100+0.10
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2018 (17 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A
Birmingham Public SchoolsBirmingham Public Schools Mixed12121414161618
Brother Rice/Marian High School - MIBrother Rice/Marian High School - MI BRMS Blue Mixed1133557
Cranbrook KingswoodCranbrook Kingswood Cranbrook Green2244668
Cranbrook KingswoodCranbrook Kingswood Cranbrook White3355779
Culver AcademiesCulver Academies Eagles maroon55779911
Culver AcademiesCulver Academies Eagles white44668810
Detroit Country Day SchoolDetroit Country Day School MIXED Gold6688101012
Grosse Ile High SchoolGrosse Ile High School GI Grey - MIXED7799111113
Grosse Ile High SchoolGrosse Ile High School GI White - MIXED881010121214
Grosse Pointe South High SchoolGrosse Pointe South High School Yellow (Mixed)991111131315
Mercy/University of Detroit JesuitMercy/University of Detroit Jesuit MUDJ10101212141416
NoviNovi Wildcats11111313151517
Spring Lake High SchoolSpring Lake High School Black Mixed15151717191921
Spring Lake High SchoolSpring Lake High School Grey14141616181820
Spring Lake High SchoolSpring Lake High School Red13131515171719
St. Francis High School Traverse CitySt. Francis High School Traverse City TCSF Varsity Blue16161818202022
Traverse City CentralTraverse City Central TCC Mixed1818202022221
Traverse City CentralTraverse City Central TCC Varsity Black17171919212123
Traverse City WestTraverse City West TCW Mixed20202222113
Traverse City WestTraverse City West TCW Varsity Green1919212123232
Troy High SchoolTroy High School Troy Mixed21212323224
West Bloomfield High SchoolWest Bloomfield High School MIXED White232322446
West Bloomfield High SchoolWest Bloomfield High School WB Green222211335

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B
Birmingham Public SchoolsBirmingham Public Schools Mixed13131515171719
Brother Rice/Marian High School - MIBrother Rice/Marian High School - MI BRMS Blue Mixed2244668
Cranbrook KingswoodCranbrook Kingswood Cranbrook Green3355779
Cranbrook KingswoodCranbrook Kingswood Cranbrook White44668810
Culver AcademiesCulver Academies Eagles maroon6688101012
Culver AcademiesCulver Academies Eagles white55779911
Detroit Country Day SchoolDetroit Country Day School MIXED Gold7799111113
Grosse Ile High SchoolGrosse Ile High School GI Grey - MIXED881010121214
Grosse Ile High SchoolGrosse Ile High School GI White - MIXED991111131315
Grosse Pointe South High SchoolGrosse Pointe South High School Yellow (Mixed)10101212141416
Mercy/University of Detroit JesuitMercy/University of Detroit Jesuit MUDJ11111313151517
NoviNovi Wildcats12121414161618
Spring Lake High SchoolSpring Lake High School Black Mixed16161818202022
Spring Lake High SchoolSpring Lake High School Grey15151717191921
Spring Lake High SchoolSpring Lake High School Red14141616181820
St. Francis High School Traverse CitySt. Francis High School Traverse City TCSF Varsity Blue17171919212123
Traverse City CentralTraverse City Central TCC Mixed1919212123232
Traverse City CentralTraverse City Central TCC Varsity Black1818202022221
Traverse City WestTraverse City West TCW Mixed21212323224
Traverse City WestTraverse City West TCW Varsity Green20202222113
Troy High SchoolTroy High School Troy Mixed222211335
West Bloomfield High SchoolWest Bloomfield High School MIXED White1133557
West Bloomfield High SchoolWest Bloomfield High School WB Green232322446
School / Team SkipperCrew
Birmingham Public Schools Birmingham Public Schools Luke Strickland '22 [1-4, 6-7]
Eric Ellison '24 [5]		 Eric Ellison '24 [1-4, 6-7]
Luke Strickland '22 [5]
Mixed Gavin Swallow '22 Sean Ellison '25
Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI Owen Bannasch '22 Caitlin Condon '23
BRMS Blue Mixed Caden Meyers '22 Jace Bishop '23
Cranbrook Kingswood Cranbrook Kingswood Charlie Gonzalez '23 Jack Harman '23
Cranbrook Green Roxanne Shaviro '22 Serena Zhang '21
Cranbrook Kingswood Cranbrook Kingswood Madison Fan '20 Serena Zhang '21
Cranbrook White Ryan Michalak '23 Jack Harman '23
Culver Academies Culver Academies Lars Hansen '20 Douglas Rassi '23
Eagles maroon Ethen Stone '21 Nate Burke '21
Culver Academies Culver Academies Jason Nguyen '22 Tianze Shou '21
Eagles white Pranjal Singh '21 William Booth '22
Detroit Country Day School Detroit Country Day School Liam Hounsell '23 Andy Zhu '23
MIXED Gold Miles Laker '23 Groves Destin '22
Grosse Ile High School Grosse Ile High School Rylan Van De Wettering '20 Eva Ottenbreit '22
GI Grey - MIXED Anna Mcaughey '24 Kellan Knapp '25
Grosse Ile High School Grosse Ile High School Jimmy Souilliere '23 Norton Coulibaly '23
GI White - MIXED Gillian Bellard '25 [1-2, 5]
Sydney Porter '24 [3-4, 6-7]		 Sydney Porter '24 [1-2, 5]
Gillian Bellard '25 [3-4, 6-7]
Grosse Pointe South High School Grosse Pointe South High School Lauren Carron '24 Doug Cowan '22
Yellow (Mixed) Christina Thomas '21 [1-7] Andrew Michels '21 [1-4]
Eva Paschke '20 [5-7]
Mercy/University of Detroit Jesuit Mercy/University of Detroit Jesuit Gavin Lamphier '22 Nathan Green '22
MUDJ Nick Myneni '22 Abbey Baetz '21
Novi Novi Michael Kirkman '21 Matthew Pacas-Mccarthy '21
Wildcats Conner Kirkman '23 Ed Stone '23
Spring Lake High School Spring Lake High School Jack Hubbard '25 Ani Hough '24
Black Mixed Nyle Eggert '24 [1-7] Ryan Bonney '24 [1-3]
Brooklyn Verplank '25 [4-7]
Spring Lake High School Spring Lake High School Bryson Hough '21 Griffin Phares '21
Grey Claire Deblanc '20 Ben Dornbush '22
Spring Lake High School Spring Lake High School Zoe Czadzeck '20 Abby Airo '20
Red Ryan Peterson '20 Carter Walker '20
St. Francis High School Traverse City St. Francis High School Traverse City Gabe Maday '22 Ryan Schmidt '21
TCSF Varsity Blue Luke Adams '24 Joe Thuente '20
Traverse City Central Traverse City Central Trey Harding '23 Case Brooks '24
TCC Mixed Cole Harding '23 [1-2, 5-7]
Jr Bergerson '24 [3-4]		 Jr Bergerson '24 [1-2, 5-7]
Cole Harding '23 [3-4]
Traverse City Central Traverse City Central Kai Oslund Dolan '20 Abigail Paul '21
TCC Varsity Black Hunter Hawes '21 Colin Gordon '22
Traverse City West Traverse City West Andrew Godmer '22 Holden Trapp '26
TCW Mixed Lucas Rodenroth '24 Gavin Graetz '26
Traverse City West Traverse City West Liam Clone '20 Ella Beck '22
TCW Varsity Green Bryce Wilmoth '20 Nic Zenner '21
Troy High School Troy High School Emily Pytell '21 Aarush Kapur '25
Troy Mixed Will Hilborn '22 Rodrigo Flores '24
West Bloomfield High School West Bloomfield High School Frank Bachulis '22 Liam Gilin '25
MIXED White Ronnie Budka '21 Brent Armstrong '25
West Bloomfield High School West Bloomfield High School Matthew Elliott '20 Anthony Dziuba '21
WB Green Jake Elsen '21 Walter Paliga '22

Conditions — 09/14/2019 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 62%  ·  Pressure 1021.4 hPa

Temperature

70°F
↑ 75°F   ↓ 60°F
Feels like 67°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
9.8 kn
avg  ·  max 11.9 kn
Gusts to 21.0 kn
From WSW (255°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover21% Sunshine10.8 hrs Humidity62% Pressure1021.4 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 12 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Detroit Country Day/West Bloomfield: a typical day (+0.01)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment +0.07 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.07
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.02 ± 0.08)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Detroit Country Day/West Bloomfield by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 5 labelled days at Detroit Country Day/West Bloomfield, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →