Spring Lake High School '20
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.66 (fleet 1.08) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 15–22 (41%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2017 | 2 | 11–18 | — |
| Spring 2016 | 1 | 4–4 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (37 matches) the record is 15–22 against 14.3 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+0.7). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 2 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-04-22 | Spring Lake Team Race | skipper | 0.70 | 1.84 | 7–7 | 4.5 | +1.14 | 1.6 | 11% |
| 2017-04-08 | DCDS Team Race 4/8 | skipper | 0.62 | 0.27 | 4–11 | 4.7 | −0.35 | 0.1 | 77% |
| 2016-05-14 | Cherryland Team Race | skipper | 0.43 | -0.49 | 4–4 | 5.2 | −0.92 | 0.6 | 91% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Turkey Leg Regatta | Skipper | A | 3 | 14.0 | 0.69 |
| Sunday Funday Regatta | Skipper | A | 6 | 7.2 | 1.06 |
| Red Hat Regatta | Skipper | B | 7 | 9.0 | 0.84 |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Turkey Leg Regatta | Skipper | A | 6 | 11.8 | 0.75 |
| St. Clair Classic | Skipper | B | 2 | 7.0 | 0.03 |
| PYC Halloween Regatta DCDS | Skipper | A | 6 | 17.8 | 0.02 |
| PYC Fun Regatta | Skipper | B | 6 | 1.7 | 3.36 |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Turkey Leg Regatta | Skipper | B | 7 | 9.9 | 0.94 |
| Halloween Regatta at PYC | Skipper | B | 6 | 7.8 | 1.41 |
| Coast Guard City Classic Regatta | Skipper | B | 4 | 11.2 | -0.69 |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Tulip Regatta | Skipper | A | 4 | 4.0 | 0.98 |
| Spring Lake Team Race | Skipper | TR | — | — | — |
| Leukemia Cup | Skipper | A | 3 | 11.0 | 0.61 |
| DCDS Team Race 4/8 | Skipper | TR | — | — | — |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| DCDS Halloween Regatta | Skipper | B | 8 | 9.1 | 0.88 |
| Cherry Festival Invite | Skipper | B | 6 | 16.0 | -0.81 |
| Banks Blackwell | Skipper | B | 6 | 9.5 | 1.15 |
| 2016 Turkey Leg Regatta | Skipper | B | 7 | 17.9 | 0.01 |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Spring Forward | Skipper | B | 6 | 7.8 | 0.24 |
| Leukemia Cup | Skipper | B | 8 | 7.8 | 0.86 |
| Cherryland Team Race | Skipper | TR | — | — | — |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| DCDS Halloween Regatta | Skipper | A | 5 | 8.6 | 0.51 |
| Coast Guard City Classic | Skipper | B | 6 | 10.2 | -0.89 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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