Leukemia Cup

HostDetroit Country Day
Date05/21/2016
TypePromotional
BoatC420
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Grosse Pointe South High School	Blue (mixed)	20	19	39
2	Grosse Pointe North High School	Norsemix	24	31	55
3	Grosse Pointe South High School	White	31	41	72
4	Spring Lake High School	Red	41	44	85
5	Grosse Pointe South High School	Gold	58	70	128
6	Detroit Country Day School	DCDS Blue	103	48	151
7	Cranbrook Kingswood	Cranbrook CK	55	100	155
8	Detroit Country Day School	DCDS	92	71	163
9	West Bloomfield High School	WB White	95	79	174
10	Detroit Country Day School	DCDS Gold MIXED	89	93	182
11	Black River Public School	Mixed	93	90	183
12	Spring Lake High School	Grey Mixed	122	62	184
13	Holland Christian High School	Mixed	90	98	188
14	Grand Haven High School	GH Gold	62	129	191
15	Cranbrook Kingswood	Cranbrook Blue	86	108	194
16	Brother Rice High School - MI	Warriors Black	110	106	216
17	Cranbrook Kingswood	Cranbrook Green	81	139	220
18	Brother Rice High School - MI	Warriors Orange	137	89	226
19	Detroit Country Day School	DCDS MIXED	143	135	278
20	West Bloomfield High School	WB Green	149	132	281

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	TOT	Sailors
Grosse Pointe South High School	Blue (mixed)	4	1	1	1	3	3	5	2	20	Blake Stackpoole '18 Grace Paschke '19
Grosse Pointe North High School	Norsemix	6	2	2	2	1	9	1	1	24	Charlie Ramsdell '20 John Huskin '18
Grosse Pointe South High School	White	1	3	4	7	6	4	3	3	31	Christiana Schiebner '19 Caroline Breen '18
Spring Lake High School	Red	2	7	3	5	2	6	6	10	41	Noah Wolters '19 Jacob Weesies '16
Cranbrook Kingswood	Cranbrook CK	12	4	6	6	8	7	7	5	55	Hattie Garratt '17 Celine Chou '17
Grosse Pointe South High School	Gold	5	11	8	3	11	12	4	4	58	Jack Burgoyne '17 [1-8] Audrey Whitaker '19 [1-4, 7-8] Carly Orhan '19 [5-6]
Grand Haven High School	GH Gold	9	6	12	4	10	11	2	8	62	Frank Frisinger '19 Grace Kucharski '19
Cranbrook Kingswood	Cranbrook Green	3	14	7	11	14	14	12	6	81	Buddy Ford-Rippolone '17 Bonnie Zhu '19
Cranbrook Kingswood	Cranbrook Blue	19	17	5	13	9	1	8	14	86	Allison Glover '17 Susanna Wu '19
Detroit Country Day School	DCDS Gold MIXED	16	10	11	8	18	8	9	9	89	Luuk Schmit '18 Tommy Boukamp '18
Holland Christian High School	Mixed	20	5	9	12	12	2	17	13	90	Eden Nykamp '20 Blake Vander Kuyl '18
Detroit Country Day School	DCDS	7	DSQ	14	10	4	16	13	7	92	Harrison George '18 Alexandra Soo '18
Black River Public School	Mixed	13	12	17	9	5	10	15	12	93	Jack Hemmelgarn '19 Joel Miller '19
West Bloomfield High School	WB White	14	9	13	16	7	5	16	15	95	Jack Bull '19 Michael Jacob '17
Detroit Country Day School	DCDS Blue	8	8	15	17	17	17	10	11	103	Jacob Mackey '17 Amanda Williams '17
Brother Rice High School - MI	Warriors Black	15	13	10	15	15	15	11	16	110	Preston Carey '17 [1-8] Tyler Hoppen '17 [1-4, 7-8] Mitch Anderson '19 [5-6]
Spring Lake High School	Grey Mixed	11	15	16	14	16	13	19	18	122	Myles Rudholm '16 Preston Johnson '19
Brother Rice High School - MI	Warriors Orange	18	19	18	18	13	18	14	19	137	Patrick Monahan '17 [1-8] Alek Roehl '19 [1-4, 7-8] John Luttman '17 [5-6]
Detroit Country Day School	DCDS MIXED	10	16	19	20	20	20	18	20	143	Lyndsay Arthurs '18 Sailesh Yellayi '17
West Bloomfield High School	WB Green	17	18	20	19	19	19	20	17	149	Nolan Beaty '19 [1-2, 5-8] Isabel Dziuba '19 [3-4] Isabel Dziuba '19 [1-2, 5-8] Nolan Beaty '19 [3-4]

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	TOT	Sailors
Grosse Pointe South High School	Blue (mixed)	4	1	2	3	1	3	1	4	19	Michael Kirkman '20 Zach Rockwell '20
Grosse Pointe North High School	Norsemix	3	4	3	1	4	5	3	8	31	Lindsey Ramsdell '18 [1-8] Ellie Frame '18 [1-2, 5-6] Mclellan '19 [3-4, 7-8]
Grosse Pointe South High School	White	1	2	1	DSQ	3	4	6	3	41	Patrick Mckeever '18 Emma Turner '19
Spring Lake High School	Red	2	3	4	8	7	11	4	5	44	Jonathan Prins '16 Sam Colvin '16
Detroit Country Day School	DCDS Blue	5	6	7	6	2	1	19	2	48	Liz Obermaier '17 Lorraine Yuen '17
Spring Lake High School	Grey Mixed	11	8	5	4	6	7	9	12	62	Claire Deblanc '20 Ryan Navarre '19
Grosse Pointe South High School	Gold	12	12	OCS	2	5	10	2	6	70	Jacob Orhan '17 [1, 3-8] Dan Van Hove '17 [2] Dan Van Hove '17 [1, 3-8] Jacob Orhan '17 [2]
Detroit Country Day School	DCDS	6	5	8	13	8	8	13	10	71	Brian Liu '18 Christopher Soo '18
West Bloomfield High School	WB White	8	11	6	7	13	2	16	16	79	Nicole Millerman '19 [1-4, 6-7] Michelle Chumiecki '18 [5, 8] Michelle Chumiecki '18 [1-4, 6-7] Nicole Millerman '19 [5, 8]
Brother Rice High School - MI	Warriors Orange	9	9	9	11	10	13	11	17	89	Tristian Klein '17 Adam Sellers '17
Black River Public School	Mixed	10	18	12	12	12	9	8	9	90	Christopher Heiderman '20 Peter Busscher '19
Detroit Country Day School	DCDS Gold MIXED	7	10	OCS	9	15	16	14	1	93	Connagh Rowley '18 Andre Sosa '18
Holland Christian High School	Mixed	20	7	18	5	9	6	18	15	98	Ethan Flowerday '17 Olivia Wisniewski '16
Cranbrook Kingswood	Cranbrook CK	13	14	10	16	11	12	10	14	100	Jimmy Chen '18 Josie Roberts '19
Brother Rice High School - MI	Warriors Black	14	13	11	10	14	14	17	13	106	Thomas Hamill '17 Cort Uffleman '17
Cranbrook Kingswood	Cranbrook Blue	16	16	13	18	18	15	5	7	108	Amy Phenjati '18 Lizzie Balsam '18
Grand Haven High School	GH Gold	15	15	16	14	19	17	15	18	129	Noah Schueler '19 [1-8] Simon Furton '21 [1-2, 5-6] Mason Milligan '21 [3-4, 7-8]
West Bloomfield High School	WB Green	19	19	14	19	16	18	7	20	132	Shane Sanghvi '19 [1-2, 5-6] Bryce Vandenavond '19 [3-4, 7-8] Bryce Vandenavond '19 [1-2, 5-6] Shane Sanghvi '19 [3-4, 7-8]
Detroit Country Day School	DCDS MIXED	18	17	17	15	17	20	20	11	135	Ilana Portney-Preston '17 Danielle Brennan '17
Cranbrook Kingswood	Cranbrook Green	17	20	15	17	20	19	12	19	139	Katie Wei '18 Joe Devroy '17

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.110+0.11

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2015 (13 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A	8A
Black River Public School Mixed	1	1	3	3	5	5	7	7
Brother Rice High School - MI Warriors Black	2	2	4	4	6	6	8	8
Brother Rice High School - MI Warriors Orange	3	3	5	5	7	7	9	9
Cranbrook Kingswood Cranbrook Blue	4	4	6	6	8	8	10	10
Cranbrook Kingswood Cranbrook CK	6	6	8	8	10	10	12	12
Cranbrook Kingswood Cranbrook Green	5	5	7	7	9	9	11	11
Detroit Country Day School DCDS	10	10	12	12	14	14	16	16
Detroit Country Day School DCDS Blue	7	7	9	9	11	11	13	13
Detroit Country Day School DCDS Gold MIXED	8	8	10	10	12	12	14	14
Detroit Country Day School DCDS MIXED	9	9	11	11	13	13	15	15
Grand Haven High School GH Gold	11	11	13	13	15	15	17	17
Grosse Pointe North High School Norsemix	12	12	14	14	16	16	21	21
Grosse Pointe South High School Blue (mixed)	13	13	15	15	17	17	19	19
Grosse Pointe South High School Gold	14	14	16	16	21	21	20	20
Grosse Pointe South High School White	15	15	17	17	19	19	1	1
Holland Christian High School Mixed	16	16	21	21	20	20	2	2
Spring Lake High School Grey Mixed	21	21	20	20	2	2	4	4
Spring Lake High School Red	17	17	19	19	1	1	3	3
West Bloomfield High School WB Green	19	19	1	1	3	3	5	5
West Bloomfield High School WB White	20	20	2	2	4	4	6	6

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B	7B	8B
Black River Public School Mixed	2	2	4	4	6	6	8	8
Brother Rice High School - MI Warriors Black	3	3	5	5	7	7	9	9
Brother Rice High School - MI Warriors Orange	4	4	6	6	8	8	10	10
Cranbrook Kingswood Cranbrook Blue	5	5	7	7	9	9	11	11
Cranbrook Kingswood Cranbrook CK	7	7	9	9	11	11	13	13
Cranbrook Kingswood Cranbrook Green	6	6	8	8	10	10	12	12
Detroit Country Day School DCDS	11	11	13	13	15	15	17	17
Detroit Country Day School DCDS Blue	8	8	10	10	12	12	14	14
Detroit Country Day School DCDS Gold MIXED	9	9	11	11	13	13	15	15
Detroit Country Day School DCDS MIXED	10	10	12	12	14	14	16	16
Grand Haven High School GH Gold	12	12	14	14	16	16	21	21
Grosse Pointe North High School Norsemix	13	13	15	15	17	17	19	19
Grosse Pointe South High School Blue (mixed)	14	14	16	16	21	21	20	20
Grosse Pointe South High School Gold	15	15	17	17	19	19	1	1
Grosse Pointe South High School White	16	16	21	21	20	20	2	2
Holland Christian High School Mixed	17	17	19	19	1	1	3	3
Spring Lake High School Grey Mixed	19	19	1	1	3	3	5	5
Spring Lake High School Red	21	21	20	20	2	2	4	4
West Bloomfield High School WB Green	20	20	2	2	4	4	6	6
West Bloomfield High School WB White	1	1	3	3	5	5	7	7

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Black River Public School	Jack Hemmelgarn '19	Joel Miller '19
Mixed	Christopher Heiderman '20	Peter Busscher '19
Brother Rice High School - MI	Preston Carey '17 [1-8]	Tyler Hoppen '17 [1-4, 7-8] Mitch Anderson '19 [5-6]
Warriors Black	Thomas Hamill '17	Cort Uffleman '17
Brother Rice High School - MI	Patrick Monahan '17 [1-8]	Alek Roehl '19 [1-4, 7-8] John Luttman '17 [5-6]
Warriors Orange	Tristian Klein '17	Adam Sellers '17
Cranbrook Kingswood	Allison Glover '17	Susanna Wu '19
Cranbrook Blue	Amy Phenjati '18	Lizzie Balsam '18
Cranbrook Kingswood	Hattie Garratt '17	Celine Chou '17
Cranbrook CK	Jimmy Chen '18	Josie Roberts '19
Cranbrook Kingswood	Buddy Ford-Rippolone '17	Bonnie Zhu '19
Cranbrook Green	Katie Wei '18	Joe Devroy '17
Detroit Country Day School	Harrison George '18	Alexandra Soo '18
DCDS	Brian Liu '18	Christopher Soo '18
Detroit Country Day School	Jacob Mackey '17	Amanda Williams '17
DCDS Blue	Liz Obermaier '17	Lorraine Yuen '17
Detroit Country Day School	Luuk Schmit '18	Tommy Boukamp '18
DCDS Gold MIXED	Connagh Rowley '18	Andre Sosa '18
Detroit Country Day School	Lyndsay Arthurs '18	Sailesh Yellayi '17
DCDS MIXED	Ilana Portney-Preston '17	Danielle Brennan '17
Grand Haven High School	Frank Frisinger '19	Grace Kucharski '19
GH Gold	Noah Schueler '19 [1-8]	Simon Furton '21 [1-2, 5-6] Mason Milligan '21 [3-4, 7-8]
Grosse Pointe North High School	Charlie Ramsdell '20	John Huskin '18
Norsemix	Lindsey Ramsdell '18 [1-8]	Ellie Frame '18 [1-2, 5-6] Mclellan '19 [3-4, 7-8]
Grosse Pointe South High School	Blake Stackpoole '18	Grace Paschke '19
Blue (mixed)	Michael Kirkman '20	Zach Rockwell '20
Grosse Pointe South High School	Jack Burgoyne '17 [1-8]	Audrey Whitaker '19 [1-4, 7-8] Carly Orhan '19 [5-6]
Gold	Jacob Orhan '17 [1, 3-8] Dan Van Hove '17 [2]	Dan Van Hove '17 [1, 3-8] Jacob Orhan '17 [2]
Grosse Pointe South High School	Christiana Schiebner '19	Caroline Breen '18
White	Patrick Mckeever '18	Emma Turner '19
Holland Christian High School	Eden Nykamp '20	Blake Vander Kuyl '18
Mixed	Ethan Flowerday '17	Olivia Wisniewski '16
Spring Lake High School	Myles Rudholm '16	Preston Johnson '19
Grey Mixed	Claire Deblanc '20	Ryan Navarre '19
Spring Lake High School	Noah Wolters '19	Jacob Weesies '16
Red	Jonathan Prins '16	Sam Colvin '16
West Bloomfield High School	Nolan Beaty '19 [1-2, 5-8] Isabel Dziuba '19 [3-4]	Isabel Dziuba '19 [1-2, 5-8] Nolan Beaty '19 [3-4]
WB Green	Shane Sanghvi '19 [1-2, 5-6] Bryce Vandenavond '19 [3-4, 7-8]	Bryce Vandenavond '19 [1-2, 5-6] Shane Sanghvi '19 [3-4, 7-8]
West Bloomfield High School	Jack Bull '19	Michael Jacob '17
WB White	Nicole Millerman '19 [1-4, 6-7] Michelle Chumiecki '18 [5, 8]	Michelle Chumiecki '18 [1-4, 6-7] Nicole Millerman '19 [5, 8]

Conditions — 05/21/2016 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 51% · Pressure 1017.1 hPa

Temperature

63°F

↑ 69°F ↓ 54°F

Feels like 59°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

6.8 kn

avg · max 8.6 kn

Gusts to 18.3 kn

From NNE (16°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover99% Sunshine5.4 hrs Humidity51% Pressure1017.1 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: N 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In this breeze at Detroit Country Day: a favourites’ day (+0.06)

Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.

Fleet adjustment +0.09 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.15

Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.22 ± 0.09)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 5% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Detroit Country Day by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 1 labelled days at Detroit Country Day, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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