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# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Spring Lake High School Spring Lake High School Red 16 16 32
2 East Grand Rapids East Grand Rapids Varsity One 17 17 34
3 Spring Lake High School Spring Lake High School Black 26 20 46
4 East Grand Rapids East Grand Rapids Varsity Two 25 49 74
5 Grand Rapids Christian High School Grand Rapids Christian High School Fast Eagles 51 26 77
6 St. Francis High School Traverse City St. Francis High School Traverse City St Francis B 48 32 80
7 West Bloomfield High School West Bloomfield High School WB/Mixed 33 64 97
8 Grand Haven High School Grand Haven High School GH Blue 54 44 98
9 University Liggett School University Liggett School Knights 52 47 99
10 Grosse Ile High School Grosse Ile High School Grosse Ile Red 70 35 105
11 Spring Lake High School Spring Lake High School Grey 52 61 113
12 St. Francis High School Traverse City St. Francis High School Traverse City St Francis Gladiator 54 72 126
13 Grand Haven High School Grand Haven High School GH Gold 71 67 138
14 Grand Haven High School Grand Haven High School GH Yellow 65 84 149
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Spring Lake High School Spring Lake High School Red 3 5 1 3 2 2 16 Brant Bolling '16
Jacob Weesies '16
East Grand Rapids East Grand Rapids Varsity One 9 3 2 1 1 1 17 Connor Goulet '17 [1-6]
Murphy Wynsma '19 [1-2, 5-6]
Ben Lilly '18 [3-4]
East Grand Rapids East Grand Rapids Varsity Two 2 2 7 4 3 7 25 Ella Wynsma '16 [1-6]
Regan Pitts '18 [1-2, 5-6]
Bella Kirchgessner '19 [3-4]
Spring Lake High School Spring Lake High School Black 1 10 4 2 4 5 26 Grant Stille '16 [1-6]
Sam Colvin '16 [1-2, 5-6]
Jaden Petersen '19 [3-4]
West Bloomfield High School West Bloomfield High School WB/Mixed 4 7 6 7 5 4 33 Jack Bull '19
Nolan Beaty '19
St. Francis High School Traverse City St. Francis High School Traverse City St Francis B 10 4 3 8 14 9 48 Katherine Clulo '17
No Show
Grand Rapids Christian High School Grand Rapids Christian High School Fast Eagles 12 8 10 6 7 8 51 Rock Macinnes '16
Joe Devries '21
Spring Lake High School Spring Lake High School Grey 7 9 5 12 8 11 52 Myles Rudholm '16
Eric Schock '17
University Liggett School University Liggett School Knights DSQ DSQ 8 5 6 3 52 Alex Johnson '18
Dylan Ponman '19
St. Francis High School Traverse City St. Francis High School Traverse City St Francis Gladiator 5 1 12 13 10 13 54 Maryfrances Myler '18
Jamie Mcclellan '17
Grand Haven High School Grand Haven High School GH Blue 6 6 11 10 9 12 54 Sam Riegler '16
Grace Kucharski '19
Grand Haven High School Grand Haven High School GH Yellow 8 11 13 11 12 10 65 Avery Hirdes '16
Bella Schincariol '19
Grosse Ile High School Grosse Ile High School Grosse Ile Red 13 12 14 14 11 6 70 Chris Twomley '17
Aidan Mclaughlin '16
Grand Haven High School Grand Haven High School GH Gold 11 DNS 9 9 13 14 71 Grace Glessner '18
Sam Sagan '18
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Spring Lake High School Spring Lake High School Red 7 2 3 1 1 2 16 Noah Wolters '19
Caleb Boon '17
East Grand Rapids East Grand Rapids Varsity One 1 6 1 2 3 4 17 Justin Lovell '17 [1-6]
Sam Ralston '16 [1-2, 5-6]
Ben Lilly '18 [3-4]
Spring Lake High School Spring Lake High School Black 2 3 4 4 2 5 20 Anne Allman '16 [1-6]
Michael Kucks '16 [1-2, 5-6]
Preston Johnson '19 [3-4]
Grand Rapids Christian High School Grand Rapids Christian High School Fast Eagles 6 1 2 5 5 7 26 Sam Poortenga '15
Owen Steger '21
St. Francis High School Traverse City St. Francis High School Traverse City St Francis B 4 4 8 3 4 9 32 No Show
No Show
Grosse Ile High School Grosse Ile High School Grosse Ile Red 3 7 7 7 8 3 35 Michael Kalata '18
Neil Quinlan '17
Grand Haven High School Grand Haven High School GH Blue 5 5 6 10 6 12 44 Elise Betten '18
Benjamin Wassell '18
University Liggett School University Liggett School Knights 8 10 9 8 11 1 47 Henry Combs '19
Thomas Hall '20
East Grand Rapids East Grand Rapids Varsity Two 9 8 5 6 10 11 49 Sarah Reid '16 [1-6]
Kate Mackeigan '19 [1-2, 5-6]
Bella Kirchgessner '19 [3-4]
Spring Lake High School Spring Lake High School Grey 10 9 11 9 12 10 61 Claire Deblanc '20 [1-6]
Alivia Stille '18 [1-2, 5-6]
Ryan Navarre '19 [3-4]
West Bloomfield High School West Bloomfield High School WB/Mixed 14 13 10 12 7 8 64 Nicole Millerman '19
Shane Sanghvi '19
Grand Haven High School Grand Haven High School GH Gold 11 11 12 11 9 13 67 Sophie Sagan '16
Max Curtiss '19
St. Francis High School Traverse City St. Francis High School Traverse City St Francis Gladiator 13 14 13 13 13 6 72 Sophia Elkhart '18 [1-6]
Lily Salgat '18 [1-2, 5-6]
Justin Friend '16 [3-4]
Grand Haven High School Grand Haven High School GH Yellow 12 12 DNS DNS DNS DNS 84 Noah Schueler '19
Derek Hartman '22
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.090+0.09
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2015 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
East Grand RapidsEast Grand Rapids Varsity One402402404404406406
East Grand RapidsEast Grand Rapids Varsity Two403403405405407407
Grand Haven High SchoolGrand Haven High School GH Blue404404406406408408
Grand Haven High SchoolGrand Haven High School GH Gold40540540740711
Grand Haven High SchoolGrand Haven High School GH Yellow40640640840822
Grand Rapids Christian High SchoolGrand Rapids Christian High School Fast Eagles4074071133
Grosse Ile High SchoolGrosse Ile High School Grosse Ile Red4084082244
Spring Lake High SchoolSpring Lake High School Black3355401401
Spring Lake High SchoolSpring Lake High School Grey224488
Spring Lake High SchoolSpring Lake High School Red113355
St. Francis High School Traverse CitySt. Francis High School Traverse City St Francis B401401403403405405
St. Francis High School Traverse CitySt. Francis High School Traverse City St Francis Gladiator4488402402
University Liggett SchoolUniversity Liggett School Knights55401401403403
West Bloomfield High SchoolWest Bloomfield High School WB/Mixed88402402404404

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B
East Grand RapidsEast Grand Rapids Varsity One403403405405407407
East Grand RapidsEast Grand Rapids Varsity Two404404406406408408
Grand Haven High SchoolGrand Haven High School GH Blue40540540740711
Grand Haven High SchoolGrand Haven High School GH Gold40640640840822
Grand Haven High SchoolGrand Haven High School GH Yellow4074071133
Grand Rapids Christian High SchoolGrand Rapids Christian High School Fast Eagles4084082244
Grosse Ile High SchoolGrosse Ile High School Grosse Ile Red113355
Spring Lake High SchoolSpring Lake High School Black4488402402
Spring Lake High SchoolSpring Lake High School Grey3355401401
Spring Lake High SchoolSpring Lake High School Red224488
St. Francis High School Traverse CitySt. Francis High School Traverse City St Francis B402402404404406406
St. Francis High School Traverse CitySt. Francis High School Traverse City St Francis Gladiator55401401403403
University Liggett SchoolUniversity Liggett School Knights88402402404404
West Bloomfield High SchoolWest Bloomfield High School WB/Mixed401401403403405405
School / Team SkipperCrew
East Grand Rapids East Grand Rapids Connor Goulet '17 [1-6] Murphy Wynsma '19 [1-2, 5-6]
Ben Lilly '18 [3-4]
Varsity One Justin Lovell '17 [1-6] Sam Ralston '16 [1-2, 5-6]
Ben Lilly '18 [3-4]
East Grand Rapids East Grand Rapids Ella Wynsma '16 [1-6] Regan Pitts '18 [1-2, 5-6]
Bella Kirchgessner '19 [3-4]
Varsity Two Sarah Reid '16 [1-6] Kate Mackeigan '19 [1-2, 5-6]
Bella Kirchgessner '19 [3-4]
Grand Haven High School Grand Haven High School Sam Riegler '16 Grace Kucharski '19
GH Blue Elise Betten '18 Benjamin Wassell '18
Grand Haven High School Grand Haven High School Grace Glessner '18 Sam Sagan '18
GH Gold Sophie Sagan '16 Max Curtiss '19
Grand Haven High School Grand Haven High School Avery Hirdes '16 Bella Schincariol '19
GH Yellow Noah Schueler '19 Derek Hartman '22
Grand Rapids Christian High School Grand Rapids Christian High School Rock Macinnes '16 Joe Devries '21
Fast Eagles Sam Poortenga '15 Owen Steger '21
Grosse Ile High School Grosse Ile High School Chris Twomley '17 Aidan Mclaughlin '16
Grosse Ile Red Michael Kalata '18 Neil Quinlan '17
Spring Lake High School Spring Lake High School Grant Stille '16 [1-6] Sam Colvin '16 [1-2, 5-6]
Jaden Petersen '19 [3-4]
Black Anne Allman '16 [1-6] Michael Kucks '16 [1-2, 5-6]
Preston Johnson '19 [3-4]
Spring Lake High School Spring Lake High School Myles Rudholm '16 Eric Schock '17
Grey Claire Deblanc '20 [1-6] Alivia Stille '18 [1-2, 5-6]
Ryan Navarre '19 [3-4]
Spring Lake High School Spring Lake High School Brant Bolling '16 Jacob Weesies '16
Red Noah Wolters '19 Caleb Boon '17
St. Francis High School Traverse City St. Francis High School Traverse City Katherine Clulo '17 No Show
St Francis B No Show No Show
St. Francis High School Traverse City St. Francis High School Traverse City Maryfrances Myler '18 Jamie Mcclellan '17
St Francis Gladiator Sophia Elkhart '18 [1-6] Lily Salgat '18 [1-2, 5-6]
Justin Friend '16 [3-4]
University Liggett School University Liggett School Alex Johnson '18 Dylan Ponman '19
Knights Henry Combs '19 Thomas Hall '20
West Bloomfield High School West Bloomfield High School Jack Bull '19 Nolan Beaty '19
WB/Mixed Nicole Millerman '19 Shane Sanghvi '19

Conditions — 10/17/2015 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Partly cloudy
Humidity 58%  ·  Pressure 1029.3 hPa

Temperature

43°F
↑ 46°F   ↓ 40°F
Feels like 33°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
11.4 kn
avg  ·  max 13.9 kn
Gusts to 26.4 kn
From NW (319°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover65% Sunshine9.9 hrs Humidity58% Pressure1029.3 hPa Rain0.01 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NW 14 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Grand Haven: an underdogs’ day (−0.02)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.12 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.10
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.07 ± 0.15)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Grand Haven by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 1 labelled days at Grand Haven, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →