| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Black River Public School | Mixed | 7–0 |
| 2 |  |
Spring Lake High School | Red Mixed | 6–1 |
| 3 |  |
Grosse Pointe South High School | Blue | 5–2 |
| 4 |  |
Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI | BRMS Blue-mixed | 4–3 |
| 5 |  |
Traverse City Central | TCC Mixed | 3–4 |
| 6 | |
Grosse Pointe South High School | Yellow (Mixed) | 2–5 |
| 7 |  |
Traverse City West | TCW Mixed | 1–6 |
| 8 |  |
East Lansing High School | Varsity | 0–7 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 4,691 team race matches sailed before 2018-05-05, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 22 of 28 matches (79%) with a log-loss of 0.460 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.10 ± 0.42: a typical event, more orderly than 34% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Black River Public School Mixed | 3.57 | 6.57 | 7–0 | 5.5 | ≥+3.00 | 2.4 | 15% |
| 4 | Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI BRMS Blue-mixed | -0.35 | 2.60 | 4–3 | 1.2 | +2.95 | 5.1 | 1% |
| 2 | Spring Lake High School Red Mixed | 3.63 | 4.38 | 6–1 | 5.5 | +0.75 | 0.2 | 52% |
| 3 | Grosse Pointe South High School Blue | 2.61 | 3.24 | 5–2 | 4.4 | +0.63 | 0.2 | 47% |
| 5 | Traverse City Central TCC Mixed | 2.24 | 1.31 | 3–4 | 3.9 | −0.93 | 0.5 | 90% |
| 7 | Traverse City West TCW Mixed | 0.58 | -0.87 | 1–6 | 2.0 | −1.46 | 0.8 | 94% |
| 6 | Grosse Pointe South High School Yellow (Mixed) | 2.21 | 0.17 | 2–5 | 4.0 | −2.04 | 2.2 | 99% |
| 8 | East Lansing High School Varsity | 0.02 | -2.98 | 0–7 | 1.5 | ≤−3.00 | 2.6 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Crowe | Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI | 0.01 | 2.96 | 4–3 | 1.2 | +2.95 | 5.1 | 1% |
| Phillip Chumiecki | Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI | 0.00 | 2.95 | 4–3 | 1.2 | +2.95 | 5.1 | 1% |
| Bryson Hough | Spring Lake High School | 1.18 | 1.92 | 6–1 | 5.5 | +0.75 | 0.2 | 52% |
| Ryan Peterson | Spring Lake High School | 0.80 | 1.55 | 6–1 | 5.5 | +0.75 | 0.2 | 52% |
| Zoe Czadzeck | Spring Lake High School | 1.55 | 2.29 | 6–1 | 5.5 | +0.75 | 0.2 | 52% |
| Kai Oslund Dolan | Traverse City Central | 0.40 | -0.54 | 3–4 | 3.9 | −0.93 | 0.5 | 90% |
| Santiago Beyro | Traverse City Central | 0.81 | -0.12 | 3–4 | 3.9 | −0.93 | 0.5 | 90% |
| Robert O'Brien | Traverse City West | 0.51 | -0.95 | 1–6 | 2.0 | −1.46 | 0.8 | 94% |
| Ashley Strong | Grosse Pointe South High School | 0.61 | -1.43 | 2–5 | 4.0 | −2.04 | 2.2 | 99% |
| Anna Carron | Grosse Pointe South High School | 0.89 | -1.15 | 2–5 | 4.0 | −2.04 | 2.2 | 99% |
| Christina Thomas | Grosse Pointe South High School | 0.67 | -1.37 | 2–5 | 4.0 | −2.04 | 2.2 | 99% |
| Drew Kovalchik | East Lansing High School | -0.02 | -3.02 | 0–7 | 1.5 | ≤−3.00 | 2.6 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
BRMS Blue-mixed | 1-4-5 | def. | |
TCC Mixed | 2-3-6 |
| 2 | |
Red Mixed | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Blue | 1-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Mixed | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Yellow (Mixed) | 3-5-6 |
| 4 | |
TCW Mixed | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-5 |
| 5 | |
Red Mixed | 1-4-5 | def. | |
TCC Mixed | 2-3-6 |
| 6 | |
Mixed | 1-2-3 | def. | |
BRMS Blue-mixed | 4-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Blue | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Yellow (Mixed) | 2-3-4 | def. | |
TCW Mixed | 1-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Mixed | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Red Mixed | 3-4-5 |
| 10 | |
TCC Mixed | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-5-6 |
| 11 | |
BRMS Blue-mixed | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Yellow (Mixed) | 3-4-5 |
| 12 | |
Blue | 1-2-6 | def. | |
TCW Mixed | 3-4-5 |
| 13 | |
Mixed | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Red Mixed | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Yellow (Mixed) | 3-4-5 |
| 15 | |
Blue | 1-2-4 | def. | |
TCC Mixed | 3-5-6 |
| 16 | |
BRMS Blue-mixed | 1-2-6 | def. | |
TCW Mixed | 3-4-5 |
| 17 | |
Yellow (Mixed) | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Mixed | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Blue | 3-4-6 |
| 19 | |
Red Mixed | 1-2-5 | def. | |
BRMS Blue-mixed | 3-4-6 |
| 20 | |
TCC Mixed | 1-2-6 | def. | |
TCW Mixed | 3-4-5 |
| 21 | |
Blue | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Yellow (Mixed) | 3-4-5 |
| 22 | |
BRMS Blue-mixed | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-5-6 |
| 23 | |
Mixed | 1-2-5 | def. | |
TCC Mixed | 3-4-6 |
| 24 | |
Red Mixed | 1-2-3 | def. | |
TCW Mixed | 4-5-6 |
| 25 | |
Blue | 2-3-4 | def. | |
BRMS Blue-mixed | 1-5-6 |
| 26 | |
TCC Mixed | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Yellow (Mixed) | 2-4-5 |
| 27 | |
Red Mixed | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 28 | |
Mixed | 1-2-6 | def. | |
TCW Mixed | 3-4-5 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 3% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
