Tulip Regatta

HostMacatawa Bay Junior Association
Date05/18/2019
TypePromotional
BoatC420
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Black River Public School	Mixed	16	11	27
2	Traverse City Central	TCC Mixed	27	16	43
3	Grand Haven High School	GH Blue Mixed	20	33	53
4	Spring Lake High School	Grey	21	52	73
5	Holland Christian High School	Mixed	43	31	74
6	Spring Lake High School	Red	44	34	78
7	Traverse City West	TCW Mixed	43	35	78
8	Grand Rapids Christian High School	Fast Eagles	36	47	83
9	St. Joseph High School	Bears- Mixed	46	52	98
10	West Ottawa High School	Panthers	40	63	103
11	St. Francis High School Traverse City	TCSF Mixed	64	41	105
12	East Lansing High School	East Lansing MIXED	68	54	122

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	TOT	Sailors
Black River Public School	Mixed	1	1	2	4	4	4	16	Eden Nykamp '21 Alden Gort '22
Grand Haven High School	GH Blue Mixed	3	6	4	3	3	1	20	Frank Frisinger '19 Keegan Aerts '21
Spring Lake High School	Grey	4	4	5	1	5	2	21	Zoe Czadzeck '20 Abby Airo '20
Traverse City Central	TCC Mixed	2	8	1	6	1	9	27	Noah Robitshek '21 Griffin Wright '21
Grand Rapids Christian High School	Fast Eagles	7	9	3	2	7	8	36	Samuel Boehle '19 Owen Steger '21
West Ottawa High School	Panthers	9	7	10	5	2	7	40	Caitlin Derby '22 Ben Olney '22
Holland Christian High School	Mixed	10	5	6	9	8	5	43	Greta Traver '23 [1-6] Lauren Siegers '21 [1-2, 5-6] Lily Johnson '23 [3-4]
Traverse City West	TCW Mixed	11	2	7	7	10	6	43	Robert O'Brien '19 Ian Beck '19
Spring Lake High School	Red	6	10	8	8	9	3	44	Ryan Peterson '20 Carter Walker '20
St. Joseph High School	Bears- Mixed	5	3	11	11	6	10	46	Nolan Youngstedt '21 Silas Lorenz '23
St. Francis High School Traverse City	TCSF Mixed	8	11	12	10	12	11	64	Caelan Wright '19 [1-6] Nic Zenner '21 [1-2] Logan Sheard '22 [3-6]
East Lansing High School	East Lansing MIXED	12	12	9	12	11	12	68	Michael Kovalchik '22 Iain Mitchell '21

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	TOT	Sailors
Black River Public School	Mixed	1	1	1	1	3	4	11	Jack Hemmelgarn '19 [1-6] Skyler Eldersveld Eldersveld '23 [1-2, 5-6] Ariana Rhoades '23 [3-4]
Traverse City Central	TCC Mixed	3	2	2	2	2	5	16	Liam Clone '20 Charles Kellogg '19
Holland Christian High School	Mixed	2	7	11	9	1	1	31	Amelia Traver '24 [1-6] Phoebe Andes '22 [1-2, 5-6] Kylie Smits '20 [3-4]
Grand Haven High School	GH Blue Mixed	9	3	6	3	9	3	33	Zachary Beyer '21 [1, 3, 6] Quentin Beyer '22 [2, 4-5] Quentin Beyer '22 [1, 3, 6] Zachary Beyer '21 [2, 4-5]
Spring Lake High School	Red	6	4	5	7	5	7	34	Griffin Phares '21 [1-4] Charlie Navarre '21 [5-6] Ben Dornbush '22 [1-2, 5-6] Charlie Navarre '21 [3-4]
Traverse City West	TCW Mixed	7	8	3	5	4	8	35	Kai Oslund Dolan '20 Abigail Paul '20
St. Francis High School Traverse City	TCSF Mixed	4	6	10	6	6	9	41	Luke Adams '23 Ryan Schmidt '21
Grand Rapids Christian High School	Fast Eagles	8	5	9	10	DNS	2	47	Ben Walters '20 Ava Van Otteren '22
Spring Lake High School	Grey	10	9	8	8	7	10	52	Caroline Henry '23 Ryan Navarre '19
St. Joseph High School	Bears- Mixed	11	10	4	11	10	6	52	Bryce Wilmoth '20 Eileen Spiegel '20
East Lansing High School	East Lansing MIXED	12	12	7	4	8	11	54	Talena Monasmith '22 Anna Hicks '22
West Ottawa High School	Panthers	5	11	12	12	11	12	63	Joshua Elwood '21 [1-4] George Dalman '22 [5-6] George Dalman '22 [1-2] Lucas Mccoy '22 [3-6]

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.140+0.14

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2017 (6 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A
Black River Public School Mixed	1	1	3	3	5	5
East Lansing High School East Lansing MIXED	2	2	4	4	6	6
Grand Haven High School GH Blue Mixed	3	3	5	5	7	7
Grand Rapids Christian High School Fast Eagles	4	4	6	6	8	8
Holland Christian High School Mixed	5	5	7	7	9	9
Spring Lake High School Grey	7	7	9	9	11	11
Spring Lake High School Red	6	6	8	8	10	10
St. Francis High School Traverse City TCSF Mixed	10	10	12	12	2	2
St. Joseph High School Bears- Mixed	8	8	10	10	12	12
Traverse City Central TCC Mixed	9	9	11	11	1	1
Traverse City West TCW Mixed	11	11	1	1	3	3
West Ottawa High School Panthers	12	12	2	2	4	4

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B
Black River Public School Mixed	2	2	4	4	6	6
East Lansing High School East Lansing MIXED	3	3	5	5	7	7
Grand Haven High School GH Blue Mixed	4	4	6	6	8	8
Grand Rapids Christian High School Fast Eagles	5	5	7	7	9	9
Holland Christian High School Mixed	6	6	8	8	10	10
Spring Lake High School Grey	8	8	10	10	12	12
Spring Lake High School Red	7	7	9	9	11	11
St. Francis High School Traverse City TCSF Mixed	11	11	1	1	3	3
St. Joseph High School Bears- Mixed	9	9	11	11	1	1
Traverse City Central TCC Mixed	10	10	12	12	2	2
Traverse City West TCW Mixed	12	12	2	2	4	4
West Ottawa High School Panthers	1	1	3	3	5	5

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Black River Public School	Eden Nykamp '21	Alden Gort '22
Mixed	Jack Hemmelgarn '19 [1-6]	Skyler Eldersveld Eldersveld '23 [1-2, 5-6] Ariana Rhoades '23 [3-4]
East Lansing High School	Michael Kovalchik '22	Iain Mitchell '21
East Lansing MIXED	Talena Monasmith '22	Anna Hicks '22
Grand Haven High School	Frank Frisinger '19	Keegan Aerts '21
GH Blue Mixed	Zachary Beyer '21 [1, 3, 6] Quentin Beyer '22 [2, 4-5]	Quentin Beyer '22 [1, 3, 6] Zachary Beyer '21 [2, 4-5]
Grand Rapids Christian High School	Samuel Boehle '19	Owen Steger '21
Fast Eagles	Ben Walters '20	Ava Van Otteren '22
Holland Christian High School	Greta Traver '23 [1-6]	Lauren Siegers '21 [1-2, 5-6] Lily Johnson '23 [3-4]
Mixed	Amelia Traver '24 [1-6]	Phoebe Andes '22 [1-2, 5-6] Kylie Smits '20 [3-4]
Spring Lake High School	Zoe Czadzeck '20	Abby Airo '20
Grey	Caroline Henry '23	Ryan Navarre '19
Spring Lake High School	Ryan Peterson '20	Carter Walker '20
Red	Griffin Phares '21 [1-4] Charlie Navarre '21 [5-6]	Ben Dornbush '22 [1-2, 5-6] Charlie Navarre '21 [3-4]
St. Francis High School Traverse City	Caelan Wright '19 [1-6]	Nic Zenner '21 [1-2] Logan Sheard '22 [3-6]
TCSF Mixed	Luke Adams '23	Ryan Schmidt '21
St. Joseph High School	Nolan Youngstedt '21	Silas Lorenz '23
Bears- Mixed	Bryce Wilmoth '20	Eileen Spiegel '20
Traverse City Central	Noah Robitshek '21	Griffin Wright '21
TCC Mixed	Liam Clone '20	Charles Kellogg '19
Traverse City West	Robert O'Brien '19	Ian Beck '19
TCW Mixed	Kai Oslund Dolan '20	Abigail Paul '20
West Ottawa High School	Caitlin Derby '22	Ben Olney '22
Panthers	Joshua Elwood '21 [1-4] George Dalman '22 [5-6]	George Dalman '22 [1-2] Lucas Mccoy '22 [3-6]

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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Tulip Regatta

Division A

Division B

From the notes