Red 8 Regatta

HostTraverse Area Community Sailing
Date05/02/2015
TypeIn-District
BoatC420
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Spring Lake High School	Grey	12	47	59
2	Grosse Pointe South High School	GPS Blue Devil White	41	30	71
3	Traverse City West	Varsity	54	22	76
4	Cranbrook Kingswood	New Zealand	30	48	78
5	Spring Lake High School	Red	63	18	81
6	Grosse Pointe South High School	GPS Blue Devils Blue	56	41	97
7	Traverse City Central	Varsity	24	89	113
8	Cranbrook Kingswood	North Korea	50	71	121
9	St. Francis High School Traverse City	St Francis Gladiator	82	41	123
10	Traverse City West	Middle School	66	61	127
11	Grosse Pointe South High School	GPS Blue Devils Gold	56	74	130
12	Detroit Country Day School	Espresso	81	52	133
13	Cranbrook Kingswood	Fiji	71	70	141
14	Detroit Country Day School	Fizzio	93	87	180
15	East Grand Rapids	Varsity One	92	92	184
16	Detroit Country Day School	Frappuccino	83	109	192

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	TOT	Sailors
Spring Lake High School	Grey	1	1	1	2	2	4	1	12	Frank Reeg '15 Eric Schock '17
Traverse City Central	Varsity	6	2	3	4	4	3	2	24	Alex Anderson '15 [1-7] Brooke Ostrowski '18 [1-4] Amelia Burke '18 [5-7]
Cranbrook Kingswood	New Zealand	7	10	4	3	1	2	3	30	Grant Glover '15 [1-7] Addy Nini '17 [1-6] Amy Phenjati '18 [7]
Grosse Pointe South High School	GPS Blue Devil White	8	7	2	1	7	8	8	41	Lindsey Clark '16 Jack Burgoyne '17
Cranbrook Kingswood	North Korea	5	5	7	5	6	7	15	50	Buddy Ford-Rippolone '17 [1-7] Katie Wei '18 [1-2, 5-7] Lexi Dietz '17 [3-4]
Traverse City West	Varsity	2	3	16	9	3	5	16	54	Mitchell Clark '16 [1-2, 5-7] Eric Anton '15 [3-4] Henry Linenger '17 [1-2, 5-7]
Grosse Pointe South High School	GPS Blue Devils Gold	3	9	6	10	14	10	4	56	Charlie Francis '17 Katherine Kunhlein '16
Grosse Pointe South High School	GPS Blue Devils Blue	10	8	10	DSQ	5	1	5	56	Jackson Webster '17 Ben Peters '16
Spring Lake High School	Red	16	4	9	6	9	12	7	63	Jonathan Prins '16 Sam Colvin '16
Traverse City West	Middle School	4	11	5	8	12	16	10	66	Ian Beck '18 Ian Beck '18
Cranbrook Kingswood	Fiji	9	6	11	7	16	9	13	71	Hattie Garratt '17 [1-7] Celine Chou '17 [1-2, 5-7] Amy Phenjati '18 [3-4]
Detroit Country Day School	Espresso	14	12	13	15	10	6	11	81	Liz Obermaier '17 Alexandra Soo '18
St. Francis High School Traverse City	St Francis Gladiator	11	14	8	11	15	14	9	82	Nick Julien '15 [1-7] Sophia Elkhart '18 [1-2, 5-7] Declan Shannon '15 [3-4]
Detroit Country Day School	Frappuccino	13	DSQ	15	13	8	11	6	83	Amanda Williams '17 Justin Lee '17
East Grand Rapids	Varsity One	15	13	14	14	11	13	12	92	Spencer Bowdle '15 Ben Lilly '18
Detroit Country Day School	Fizzio	12	15	12	12	13	15	14	93	Connagh Rowley '18 Christopher Gilmer-Hill '18

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	TOT	Sailors
Spring Lake High School	Red	1	1	7	1	4	3	1	18	Noah Wolters '19 Jacob Weesies '16
Traverse City West	Varsity	4	5	1	2	6	2	2	22	Sara Gustafson '17 Katherine Crewes '17
Grosse Pointe South High School	GPS Blue Devil White	5	3	6	7	1	1	7	30	Alex Zimmerman '15 Caroline Breen '18
Grosse Pointe South High School	GPS Blue Devils Blue	2	4	13	5	8	5	4	41	Liam Walz '17 Jacob Orhan '17
St. Francis High School Traverse City	St Francis Gladiator	3	2	2	6	12	8	8	41	Maryfrances Myler '18 [1-7] Jamie Mcclellan '17 [1-4] Katherine Clulo '17 [5-7]
Spring Lake High School	Grey	12	8	3	10	5	4	5	47	Reid Kwiatkowski '16 Michael Kucks '16
Cranbrook Kingswood	New Zealand	7	11	10	8	3	6	3	48	Allison Glover '17 [1-7] Lizzie Balsam '18 [1-6] Jimmy Chen '18 [7]
Detroit Country Day School	Espresso	13	6	4	4	2	11	12	52	Harrison George '18 Sailesh Yellayi '17
Traverse City West	Middle School	10	12	8	9	9	7	6	61	Ryan Geiser '14 Liam Clone '20
Cranbrook Kingswood	Fiji	6	10	5	11	11	13	14	70	Carsten Ritter '17 [1-6] Kait Alvord '16 [7] Kait Alvord '16 [1-6] Carsten Ritter '17 [7]
Cranbrook Kingswood	North Korea	8	9	9	12	13	10	10	71	Hunter Shuert '17 [1-7] Jimmy Chen '18 [1-4] Lexi Dietz '17 [5-7]
Grosse Pointe South High School	GPS Blue Devils Gold	9	7	11	3	14	14	16	74	Dan Follis '18 Grady Eger '17
Detroit Country Day School	Fizzio	11	15	15	13	15	9	9	87	Brian Liu '18 [1-4, 7] Gaspard Mosquet '19 [5-6] Gaspard Mosquet '19 [1-4, 7] Brian Liu '18 [5-6]
Traverse City Central	Varsity	14	14	14	14	10	12	11	89	Maddie Zimmerman '17 [1-2, 5-7] Jack Shields '15 [3-4] Margaret Miron '17 [1-2] Celeste Anderson '17 [3-4] Allie Friar '15 [5-7]
East Grand Rapids	Varsity One	15	13	12	16	7	16	13	92	Ava Cares '15 Spencer Bowdle '17
Detroit Country Day School	Frappuccino	16	16	16	15	16	15	15	109	Jacob Mackey '17 Christopher Soo '18

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.070+0.07

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2015 (2 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A
Cranbrook Kingswood Fiji	3	3	5	5	7	7	9
Cranbrook Kingswood New Zealand	1	1	3	3	5	5	7
Cranbrook Kingswood North Korea	2	2	4	4	6	6	8
Detroit Country Day School Espresso	4	4	6	6	8	8	10
Detroit Country Day School Fizzio	6	6	8	8	10	10	12
Detroit Country Day School Frappuccino	5	5	7	7	9	9	11
East Grand Rapids Varsity One	7	7	9	9	11	11	16
Grosse Pointe South High School GPS Blue Devil White	10	10	12	12	17	17	19
Grosse Pointe South High School GPS Blue Devils Blue	8	8	10	10	12	12	17
Grosse Pointe South High School GPS Blue Devils Gold	9	9	11	11	16	16	18
Spring Lake High School Grey	12	12	17	17	19	19	2
Spring Lake High School Red	11	11	16	16	18	18	1
St. Francis High School Traverse City St Francis Gladiator	16	16	18	18	1	1	3
Traverse City Central Varsity	17	17	19	19	2	2	4
Traverse City West Middle School	18	18	1	1	3	3	5
Traverse City West Varsity	19	19	2	2	4	4	6

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B	7B
Cranbrook Kingswood Fiji	4	4	6	6	8	8	10
Cranbrook Kingswood New Zealand	2	2	4	4	6	6	8
Cranbrook Kingswood North Korea	3	3	5	5	7	7	9
Detroit Country Day School Espresso	5	5	7	7	9	9	11
Detroit Country Day School Fizzio	7	7	9	9	11	11	16
Detroit Country Day School Frappuccino	6	6	8	8	10	10	12
East Grand Rapids Varsity One	8	8	10	10	12	12	17
Grosse Pointe South High School GPS Blue Devil White	11	11	16	16	18	18	1
Grosse Pointe South High School GPS Blue Devils Blue	9	9	11	11	16	16	18
Grosse Pointe South High School GPS Blue Devils Gold	10	10	12	12	17	17	19
Spring Lake High School Grey	16	16	18	18	1	1	3
Spring Lake High School Red	12	12	17	17	19	19	2
St. Francis High School Traverse City St Francis Gladiator	17	17	19	19	2	2	4
Traverse City Central Varsity	18	18	1	1	3	3	5
Traverse City West Middle School	19	19	2	2	4	4	6
Traverse City West Varsity	1	1	3	3	5	5	7

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Cranbrook Kingswood	Hattie Garratt '17 [1-7]	Celine Chou '17 [1-2, 5-7] Amy Phenjati '18 [3-4]
Fiji	Carsten Ritter '17 [1-6] Kait Alvord '16 [7]	Kait Alvord '16 [1-6] Carsten Ritter '17 [7]
Cranbrook Kingswood	Grant Glover '15 [1-7]	Addy Nini '17 [1-6] Amy Phenjati '18 [7]
New Zealand	Allison Glover '17 [1-7]	Lizzie Balsam '18 [1-6] Jimmy Chen '18 [7]
Cranbrook Kingswood	Buddy Ford-Rippolone '17 [1-7]	Katie Wei '18 [1-2, 5-7] Lexi Dietz '17 [3-4]
North Korea	Hunter Shuert '17 [1-7]	Jimmy Chen '18 [1-4] Lexi Dietz '17 [5-7]
Detroit Country Day School	Liz Obermaier '17	Alexandra Soo '18
Espresso	Harrison George '18	Sailesh Yellayi '17
Detroit Country Day School	Connagh Rowley '18	Christopher Gilmer-Hill '18
Fizzio	Brian Liu '18 [1-4, 7] Gaspard Mosquet '19 [5-6]	Gaspard Mosquet '19 [1-4, 7] Brian Liu '18 [5-6]
Detroit Country Day School	Amanda Williams '17	Justin Lee '17
Frappuccino	Jacob Mackey '17	Christopher Soo '18
East Grand Rapids	Spencer Bowdle '15	Ben Lilly '18
Varsity One	Ava Cares '15	Spencer Bowdle '17
Grosse Pointe South High School	Lindsey Clark '16	Jack Burgoyne '17
GPS Blue Devil White	Alex Zimmerman '15	Caroline Breen '18
Grosse Pointe South High School	Jackson Webster '17	Ben Peters '16
GPS Blue Devils Blue	Liam Walz '17	Jacob Orhan '17
Grosse Pointe South High School	Charlie Francis '17	Katherine Kunhlein '16
GPS Blue Devils Gold	Dan Follis '18	Grady Eger '17
Spring Lake High School	Frank Reeg '15	Eric Schock '17
Grey	Reid Kwiatkowski '16	Michael Kucks '16
Spring Lake High School	Jonathan Prins '16	Sam Colvin '16
Red	Noah Wolters '19	Jacob Weesies '16
St. Francis High School Traverse City	Nick Julien '15 [1-7]	Sophia Elkhart '18 [1-2, 5-7] Declan Shannon '15 [3-4]
St Francis Gladiator	Maryfrances Myler '18 [1-7]	Jamie Mcclellan '17 [1-4] Katherine Clulo '17 [5-7]
Traverse City Central	Alex Anderson '15 [1-7]	Brooke Ostrowski '18 [1-4] Amelia Burke '18 [5-7]
Varsity	Maddie Zimmerman '17 [1-2, 5-7] Jack Shields '15 [3-4]	Margaret Miron '17 [1-2] Celeste Anderson '17 [3-4] Allie Friar '15 [5-7]
Traverse City West	Ian Beck '18	Ian Beck '18
Middle School	Ryan Geiser '14	Liam Clone '20
Traverse City West	Mitchell Clark '16 [1-2, 5-7] Eric Anton '15 [3-4]	Henry Linenger '17 [1-2, 5-7]
Varsity	Sara Gustafson '17	Katherine Crewes '17

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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Red 8 Regatta

Division A

Division B

From the notes