Turkey Leg Regatta

HostSpring Lake Yacht Club
Date11/07/2015
TypePromotional
BoatC420
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Spring Lake High School	Black	5	17	22
2	Spring Lake High School	Red	17	12	29
3	East Grand Rapids	Varsity Two	18	14	32
4	East Grand Rapids	Varsity One	27	19	46
5	Traverse City Central	Varsity	40	21	61
6	Cranbrook Kingswood	Cranberry Compote	32	31	63
7	Traverse City West	Varsity	17	47	64
8	West Bloomfield High School	WB Mixed	34	39	73
9	Grand Haven High School	GH Blue	45	37	82
10	St. Francis High School Traverse City	St Francis Gladiator	35	56	91
11	Grand Rapids Christian High School	GRC-SC Mixed	39	68	107
12	Grand Haven High School	GH Yellow	47	64	111
13	Grosse Ile High School	GI/HC	49	63	112
14	Spring Lake High School	Grey	43	71	114
15	Cranbrook Kingswood	Cranberry Sauce	65	49	114
16	Grosse Ile High School	Red Devils One	98	17	115
17	Detroit Country Day School	Sweet Potatoes	62	55	117
18	Brother Rice High School - MI	Brother Rice HS	71	47	118
19	Detroit Country Day School	DCDS Mixed Mashed	73	59	132
20	Grand Haven High School	GH Gold	54	90	144
21	Culver Academies	Maroon	82	76	158
22	Grosse Ile High School	Red Devils Two	74	95	169
23	Grosse Ile High School	Red Devils Three	86	89	175
24	Cranbrook Kingswood	Cranberry Mix	100	95	195

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	TOT	Sailors
Spring Lake High School	Black	1	2	1	1	5	Noah Wolters '19 Michael Kucks '16
Traverse City West	Varsity	2	4	3	8	17	Brooke Ostrowski '18 Liam Clone '20
Spring Lake High School	Red	4	1	7	5	17	Brant Bolling '16 Caleb Boon '17
East Grand Rapids	Varsity Two	3	3	6	6	18	Ella Wynsma '16 Max Ralston '20
East Grand Rapids	Varsity One	9	14	2	2	27	Ben Lilly '18 Regan Pitts '18
Cranbrook Kingswood	Cranberry Compote	6	7	12	7	32	Allison Glover '17 Olivia Wisniewski '16
West Bloomfield High School	WB Mixed	8	11	5	10	34	Jack Bull '19 Shane Sanghvi '19
St. Francis High School Traverse City	St Francis Gladiator	16	12	4	3	35	Katherine Clulo '17 Jamie Mcclellan '17
Grand Rapids Christian High School	GRC-SC Mixed	11	10	9	9	39	Sam Poortenga '15 Elijah Heerema '19
Traverse City Central	Varsity	7	9	13	11	40	Ajay Provost '19 Amelia Burke '18
Spring Lake High School	Grey	12	5	10	16	43	Myles Rudholm '16 Eric Schock '17
Grand Haven High School	GH Blue	5	6	20	14	45	Frank Frisinger '19 Grace Kucharski '19
Grand Haven High School	GH Yellow	15	13	15	4	47	Avery Hirdes '16 Noah Schueler '19
Grosse Ile High School	GI/HC	10	8	14	17	49	Chris Twomley '17 Toby Pfeiffer '18
Grand Haven High School	GH Gold	17	17	8	12	54	Max Curtiss '19 Sam Sagan '18
Detroit Country Day School	Sweet Potatoes	13	15	19	15	62	Liz Obermaier '17 [1-2] Tyler Allen '18 [3-4] Tyler Allen '18 [1-2] Liz Obermaier '17 [3-4]
Cranbrook Kingswood	Cranberry Sauce	20	16	11	18	65	Jimmy Chen '18 Lizzie Balsam '18
Brother Rice High School - MI	Brother Rice HS	21	19	18	13	71	Thomas Hamill '17 Tristian Klein '17
Detroit Country Day School	DCDS Mixed Mashed	19	18	17	19	73	Dylan Ponman '19 Brian Liu '18
Grosse Ile High School	Red Devils Two	18	20	16	20	74	Michael Kalata '18 Tyler Pardo '18
Culver Academies	Maroon	14	21	22	DNS	82	John Henderson '17 Anna Evans '18
Grosse Ile High School	Red Devils Three	22	22	21	21	86	Alex White '20 Reyn White '19
Grosse Ile High School	Red Devils One	23	DNS	DNS	DNS	98	Molly Matthews '19 Meghan Dieball '20
Cranbrook Kingswood	Cranberry Mix	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	100	No Show No Show

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	TOT	Sailors
Spring Lake High School	Red	1	2	3	6	12	Grant Stille '16 Sam Colvin '16
East Grand Rapids	Varsity Two	2	1	1	10	14	Sam Ralston '16 Wil Bowman '16
Spring Lake High School	Black	3	3	4	7	17	Jonathan Prins '16 Jacob Weesies '16
Grosse Ile High School	Red Devils One	5	5	6	1	17	Ian Reimel '19 Neil Quinlan '17
East Grand Rapids	Varsity One	7	4	5	3	19	Sarah Reid '16 Bella Kirchgessner '19
Traverse City Central	Varsity	9	8	2	2	21	No Show Olivia Wilson '18
Cranbrook Kingswood	Cranberry Compote	4	11	7	9	31	Hattie Garratt '17 Joe Devroy '17
Grand Haven High School	GH Blue	8	6	8	15	37	Sam Riegler '16 Sophie Sagan '16
West Bloomfield High School	WB Mixed	15	7	12	5	39	Nicole Millerman '19 Thomas Hall '20
Brother Rice High School - MI	Brother Rice HS	10	13	10	14	47	Preston Carey '17 Patrick Monahan '17
Traverse City West	Varsity	12	12	11	12	47	Ian Beck '18 No Show
Cranbrook Kingswood	Cranberry Sauce	6	10	14	19	49	Carsten Ritter '17 Sydney Pierce '18
Detroit Country Day School	Sweet Potatoes	13	9	17	16	55	Connagh Rowley '18 [1-2] Vishnu Venkatesan '16 [3-4] Vishnu Venkatesan '16 [1-2] Connagh Rowley '18 [3-4]
St. Francis High School Traverse City	St Francis Gladiator	23	16	9	8	56	Thomas Jameson '16 Justin Friend '16
Detroit Country Day School	DCDS Mixed Mashed	16	17	13	13	59	Alexandra Soo '18 Sonali Reddy '18
Grosse Ile High School	GI/HC	20	20	19	4	63	No Show No Show
Grand Haven High School	GH Yellow	17	14	15	18	64	Cody Peterson '16 Benjamin Wassell '18
Grand Rapids Christian High School	GRC-SC Mixed	19	22	16	11	68	Owen Steger '21 [1-4] Joe Devries '21 [1-2] Ben Walters '20 [3-4]
Spring Lake High School	Grey	18	18	18	17	71	Preston Johnson '19 [1-4] Jaden Petersen '19 [1-2] Ryan Navarre '19 [3-4]
Culver Academies	Maroon	11	15	DNS	DNS	76	Jacob Hare '17 Matthew "Bear" Coughlin '16
Grosse Ile High School	Red Devils Three	14	DNF	DNS	DNS	89	Rylan Van De Weting '20 Sullivan Cowan '20
Grand Haven High School	GH Gold	21	19	DNS	DNS	90	Elise Betten '18 Grace Glessner '18
Grosse Ile High School	Red Devils Two	22	23	DNS	DNS	95	Aidan Mclaughlin '16 Jim Brock '16
Cranbrook Kingswood	Cranberry Mix	24	21	DNS	DNS	95	Lexi Dietz '17 Amy Phenjati '18

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.130+0.13

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2014 (5 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A
Brother Rice High School - MI Brother Rice HS	1	1	3	3
Cranbrook Kingswood Cranberry Compote	2	2	4	4
Cranbrook Kingswood Cranberry Mix	4	4	8	8
Cranbrook Kingswood Cranberry Sauce	3	3	5	5
Culver Academies Maroon	5	5	41	41
Detroit Country Day School DCDS Mixed Mashed			2	2
Detroit Country Day School Sweet Potatoes	8	8	42	42
Grand Haven High School GH Blue			1	1
Grand Haven High School GH Gold	41	41	43	43
Grand Haven High School GH Yellow	42	42	44	44
Grand Rapids Christian High School GRC-SC Mixed	43	43	45	45
Grosse Ile High School GI/HC	401	401	403	403
Grosse Ile High School Red Devils One	44	44	46	46
Grosse Ile High School Red Devils Three	46	46	402	402
Grosse Ile High School Red Devils Two	45	45	401	401
Spring Lake High School Black	404	404	406	406
Spring Lake High School Grey	403	403	405	405
Spring Lake High School Red	402	402	404	404
St. Francis High School Traverse City St Francis Gladiator	405	405	407	407
Traverse City Central Varsity	406	406	408	408
Traverse City West Varsity	407	407
West Bloomfield High School WB Mixed	408	408

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B
Brother Rice High School - MI Brother Rice HS	2	2	4	4
Cranbrook Kingswood Cranberry Compote	3	3	5	5
Cranbrook Kingswood Cranberry Mix	5	5	41	41
Cranbrook Kingswood Cranberry Sauce	4	4	8	8
Culver Academies Maroon	8	8	42	42
Detroit Country Day School DCDS Mixed Mashed	1	1	3	3
Detroit Country Day School Sweet Potatoes	41	41	43	43
East Grand Rapids Varsity Two			1	1
Grand Haven High School GH Blue			2	2
Grand Haven High School GH Gold	42	42	44	44
Grand Haven High School GH Yellow	43	43	45	45
Grand Rapids Christian High School GRC-SC Mixed	44	44	46	46
Grosse Ile High School GI/HC	402	402	404	404
Grosse Ile High School Red Devils One	45	45	401	401
Grosse Ile High School Red Devils Three	401	401	403	403
Grosse Ile High School Red Devils Two	46	46	402	402
Spring Lake High School Black	405	405	407	407
Spring Lake High School Grey	404	404	406	406
Spring Lake High School Red	403	403	405	405
St. Francis High School Traverse City St Francis Gladiator	406	406	408	408
Traverse City Central Varsity	407	407
Traverse City West Varsity	408	408

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Brother Rice High School - MI	Thomas Hamill '17	Tristian Klein '17
Brother Rice HS	Preston Carey '17	Patrick Monahan '17
Cranbrook Kingswood	Allison Glover '17	Olivia Wisniewski '16
Cranberry Compote	Hattie Garratt '17	Joe Devroy '17
Cranbrook Kingswood	No Show	No Show
Cranberry Mix	Lexi Dietz '17	Amy Phenjati '18
Cranbrook Kingswood	Jimmy Chen '18	Lizzie Balsam '18
Cranberry Sauce	Carsten Ritter '17	Sydney Pierce '18
Culver Academies	John Henderson '17	Anna Evans '18
Maroon	Jacob Hare '17	Matthew "Bear" Coughlin '16
Detroit Country Day School	Dylan Ponman '19	Brian Liu '18
DCDS Mixed Mashed	Alexandra Soo '18	Sonali Reddy '18
Detroit Country Day School	Liz Obermaier '17 [1-2] Tyler Allen '18 [3-4]	Tyler Allen '18 [1-2] Liz Obermaier '17 [3-4]
Sweet Potatoes	Connagh Rowley '18 [1-2] Vishnu Venkatesan '16 [3-4]	Vishnu Venkatesan '16 [1-2] Connagh Rowley '18 [3-4]
East Grand Rapids	Ben Lilly '18	Regan Pitts '18
Varsity One	Sarah Reid '16	Bella Kirchgessner '19
East Grand Rapids	Ella Wynsma '16	Max Ralston '20
Varsity Two	Sam Ralston '16	Wil Bowman '16
Grand Haven High School	Frank Frisinger '19	Grace Kucharski '19
GH Blue	Sam Riegler '16	Sophie Sagan '16
Grand Haven High School	Max Curtiss '19	Sam Sagan '18
GH Gold	Elise Betten '18	Grace Glessner '18
Grand Haven High School	Avery Hirdes '16	Noah Schueler '19
GH Yellow	Cody Peterson '16	Benjamin Wassell '18
Grand Rapids Christian High School	Sam Poortenga '15	Elijah Heerema '19
GRC-SC Mixed	Owen Steger '21 [1-4]	Joe Devries '21 [1-2] Ben Walters '20 [3-4]
Grosse Ile High School	Chris Twomley '17	Toby Pfeiffer '18
GI/HC	No Show	No Show
Grosse Ile High School	Molly Matthews '19	Meghan Dieball '20
Red Devils One	Ian Reimel '19	Neil Quinlan '17
Grosse Ile High School	Alex White '20	Reyn White '19
Red Devils Three	Rylan Van De Weting '20	Sullivan Cowan '20
Grosse Ile High School	Michael Kalata '18	Tyler Pardo '18
Red Devils Two	Aidan Mclaughlin '16	Jim Brock '16
Spring Lake High School	Noah Wolters '19	Michael Kucks '16
Black	Jonathan Prins '16	Jacob Weesies '16
Spring Lake High School	Myles Rudholm '16	Eric Schock '17
Grey	Preston Johnson '19 [1-4]	Jaden Petersen '19 [1-2] Ryan Navarre '19 [3-4]
Spring Lake High School	Brant Bolling '16	Caleb Boon '17
Red	Grant Stille '16	Sam Colvin '16
St. Francis High School Traverse City	Katherine Clulo '17	Jamie Mcclellan '17
St Francis Gladiator	Thomas Jameson '16	Justin Friend '16
Traverse City Central	Ajay Provost '19	Amelia Burke '18
Varsity	No Show	Olivia Wilson '18
Traverse City West	Brooke Ostrowski '18	Liam Clone '20
Varsity	Ian Beck '18	No Show
West Bloomfield High School	Jack Bull '19	Shane Sanghvi '19
WB Mixed	Nicole Millerman '19	Thomas Hall '20

Conditions — 11/07/2015 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Mainly clear

Humidity 67% · Pressure 1024.0 hPa

Temperature

46°F

↑ 47°F ↓ 44°F

Feels like 37°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

11.2 kn

avg · max 13.6 kn

Gusts to 30.5 kn

From WNW (288°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover24% Sunshine9.2 hrs Humidity67% Pressure1024.0 hPa Rain0.02 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 14 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In this breeze at Spring Lake Yacht Club: an underdogs’ day (−0.06)

Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.

Fleet adjustment +0.09 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.03

Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.75 ± 0.17)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 5% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Spring Lake Yacht Club by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 3 labelled days at Spring Lake Yacht Club, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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