| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Grosse Pointe South High School | Blue | 8–0 |
| 2 |  |
Cranbrook Kingswood | CK Mixed | 7–1 |
| 3 | |
Grosse Pointe South High School | Gold | 6–2 |
| 4 |  |
West Bloomfield High School | Lakers Varsity | 5–3 |
| 5 |  |
Mercy University of Detroit Jesuit | MUDJ | 4–4 |
| 6 | |
Grosse Pointe South High School | Gold Mixed | 3–5 |
| 7 |  |
Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI | BRMS Blue | 2–6 |
| 8 | |
Cranbrook Kingswood | Armadillos | 1–7 |
| 9 |  |
Detroit Country Day School | MIXED Blue | 0–8 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 6,425 team race matches sailed before 2019-05-18, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 25 of 28 matches (89%) with a log-loss of 0.332 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.57 ± 0.42: an orderly event, more orderly than 83% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Grosse Pointe South High School Blue | 4.63 | 7.63 | 7–0 | 6.0 | ≥+3.00 | 1.4 | 34% |
| 3 | Grosse Pointe South High School Gold | 2.85 | 5.17 | 6–1 | 4.2 | +2.32 | 2.2 | 11% |
| 5 | Mercy University of Detroit Jesuit MUDJ | 1.53 | 2.87 | 4–3 | 2.6 | +1.35 | 1.1 | 21% |
| 6 | Grosse Pointe South High School Gold Mixed | 2.12 | 1.83 | 3–4 | 3.3 | −0.30 | 0.1 | 76% |
| 4 | West Bloomfield High School Lakers Varsity | 4.03 | 3.43 | 5–2 | 5.5 | −0.59 | 0.2 | 85% |
| 7 | Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI BRMS Blue | 2.05 | 0.84 | 2–5 | 3.2 | −1.21 | 0.8 | 93% |
| 8 | Cranbrook Kingswood Armadillos | 1.22 | -0.42 | 1–6 | 2.3 | −1.64 | 1.1 | 96% |
| 9 | Detroit Country Day School MIXED Blue | -0.07 | -3.07 | 0–7 | 0.9 | ≤−3.00 | 1.3 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ellie Groustra | Grosse Pointe South High School | 0.94 | 3.94 | 7–0 | 6.0 | ≥+3.00 | 1.4 | 34% |
| Lucas Bellamy | Grosse Pointe South High School | 1.77 | 4.77 | 7–0 | 6.0 | ≥+3.00 | 1.4 | 34% |
| Charlie Gmeiner | Grosse Pointe South High School | 0.52 | 2.84 | 6–1 | 4.2 | +2.32 | 2.2 | 11% |
| Quinn Cassidy | Grosse Pointe South High School | 1.20 | 3.52 | 6–1 | 4.2 | +2.32 | 2.2 | 11% |
| Marina Lamphier | Mercy University of Detroit Jesuit | 0.51 | 1.85 | 4–3 | 2.6 | +1.35 | 1.1 | 21% |
| Devin Doghtery | Grosse Pointe South High School | 0.53 | 0.24 | 3–4 | 3.3 | −0.30 | 0.1 | 76% |
| Nicole Millerman | West Bloomfield High School | 1.16 | 0.57 | 5–2 | 5.5 | −0.59 | 0.2 | 85% |
| Chas Mathius-Baliatico | Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI | -0.13 | -1.35 | 2–5 | 3.2 | −1.21 | 0.8 | 93% |
| Henry Gonzalez | Cranbrook Kingswood | 1.38 | -0.26 | 1–6 | 2.3 | −1.64 | 1.1 | 96% |
| Ethan Lee | Detroit Country Day School | 1.01 | -1.99 | 0–7 | 0.9 | ≤−3.00 | 1.3 | >99% |
| Joe Mowrey | Detroit Country Day School | -0.86 | -3.86 | 0–7 | 0.9 | ≤−3.00 | 1.3 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Blue | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Armadillos | 2-4-6 |
| 2 | |
Aardvarks | 1-2-5 | def. | |
MIXED Blue | 3-4-6 |
| 3 | |
Lakers Varsity | 2-3-4 | def. | |
MUDJ | 1-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Gold Mixed | 1-2-4 | def. | |
BRMS Blue | 3-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Blue | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Gold | 3-4-6 |
| 6 | |
MUDJ | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Armadillos | 2-4-5 |
| 7 | |
Aardvarks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
BRMS Blue | 4-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Lakers Varsity | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Gold Mixed | 3-4-6 |
| 9 | |
Blue | 1-2-4 | def. | |
MIXED Blue | 3-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Gold | 1-2-5 | def. | |
MUDJ | 3-4-6 |
| 11 | |
Lakers Varsity | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Armadillos | 1-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Aardvarks | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Gold Mixed | 3-4-6 |
| 13 | |
MUDJ | 1-3-6 | def. | |
MIXED Blue | 2-4-5 |
| 14 | |
Blue | 1-2-3 | def. | |
BRMS Blue | 4-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Gold | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Lakers Varsity | 3-4-5 |
| 16 | |
Gold Mixed | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Armadillos | 4-5-6 |
| 17 | |
MUDJ | 1-2-6 | def. | |
BRMS Blue | 3-4-5 |
| 18 | |
Lakers Varsity | 1-2-4 | def. | |
MIXED Blue | 3-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Blue | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Aardvarks | 3-5-6 |
| 20 | |
Gold | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Armadillos | 2-4-6 |
| 21 | |
Lakers Varsity | 1-2-3 | def. | |
BRMS Blue | 4-5-6 |
| 22 | |
Aardvarks | 2-3-5 | def. | |
MUDJ | 1-4-6 |
| 23 | |
Armadillos | 1-3-4 | def. | |
MIXED Blue | 2-5-6 |
| 24 | |
Gold | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Gold Mixed | 3-4-6 |
| 25 | |
Aardvarks | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Lakers Varsity | 1-4-6 |
| 26 | |
BRMS Blue | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Armadillos | 3-4-5 |
| 27 | |
Gold | 2-3-4 | def. | |
MIXED Blue | 1-5-6 |
| 28 | |
Blue | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Gold Mixed | 3-5-6 |
| 29 | |
Aardvarks | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Armadillos | 3-4-5 |
| 30 | |
Gold | 2-3-4 | def. | |
BRMS Blue | 1-5-6 |
| 31 | |
Blue | 1-2-6 | def. | |
MUDJ | 3-4-5 |
| 32 | |
Gold Mixed | 1-3-5 | def. | |
MIXED Blue | 2-4-6 |
| 33 | |
Aardvarks | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Gold | 3-4-5 |
| 34 | |
Blue | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Lakers Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 35 | |
BRMS Blue | 1-3-4 | def. | |
MIXED Blue | 2-5-6 |
| 36 | |
MUDJ | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Gold Mixed | 4-5-6 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
