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Michigan State 420 Champs

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Grosse Pointe South High School Grosse Pointe South High School GPS Blue Devils Gold 30 22 52
2 East Grand Rapids East Grand Rapids Varsity One 25 36 61
3 Detroit Country Day School Detroit Country Day School Varsity 35 43 78
4 Spring Lake High School Spring Lake High School Red 48 51 99
5 St. Francis High School Traverse City St. Francis High School Traverse City St Francis Gladiator 59 45 104
6 Traverse City West Traverse City West Varsity 42 68 110
7 Grosse Pointe North High School Grosse Pointe North High School Norsemen 44 66 110
8 Grosse Ile High School Grosse Ile High School Grosse Ile Red 80 39 119
9 Cranbrook Kingswood Cranbrook Kingswood Cranes 79 66 145
10 West Bloomfield High School West Bloomfield High School Lakers Varsity 84 70 154
11 Traverse City Central Traverse City Central Varsity 68 88 156
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 TOT Sailors
East Grand Rapids East Grand Rapids Varsity One 4 1 3 2 1 4 2 3 5 25 Connor Goulet '17
Murphy Wynsma '19
Grosse Pointe South High School Grosse Pointe South High School GPS Blue Devils Gold 2 5 5 3 2 2 3 2 6 30 Blake Stackpoole '18 [1-9]
John Walton '18 [1-2]
David Silverman '17 [3-9]
Detroit Country Day School Detroit Country Day School Varsity 1 2 4 4 7 9 6 1 1 35 Cole Wiand '16 [1-9]
Liz Obermaier '17 [1-5]
Harrison George '18 [6-9]
Traverse City West Traverse City West Varsity 3 8 2 1 8 6 4 8 2 42 Brooke Ostrowski '18
Katherine Crewes '17
Grosse Pointe North High School Grosse Pointe North High School Norsemen 6 3 1 11 4 8 1 6 4 44 Lindsey Ramsdell '18 [1-9]
Adam Weinkauf '18 [1-2]
Mathew Moores '17 [3-9]
Spring Lake High School Spring Lake High School Red 10 4 8 5 6 3 5 4 3 48 Jonathan Prins '16
Michael Kucks '16
St. Francis High School Traverse City St. Francis High School Traverse City St Francis Gladiator 7 6 7 8 5 1 10 7 8 59 Maryfrances Myler '18
Jamie Mcclellan '17
Traverse City Central Traverse City Central Varsity 9 11 9 9 3 5 8 5 9 68 Ajay Provost '19
Amelia Burke '18
Cranbrook Kingswood Cranbrook Kingswood Cranes 5 9 10 6 10 11 11 10 7 79 Allison Glover '17
Kait Alvord '16
Grosse Ile High School Grosse Ile High School Grosse Ile Red 11 7 6 7 11 10 7 11 10 80 Chris Twomley '17 [1-2, 5-6, 9]
Molly Matthews '19 [3-4, 7-8]
Tyler Pardo '18 [1-2, 5-6, 9]
Michael Kalata '18 [3-4, 7-8]
West Bloomfield High School West Bloomfield High School Lakers Varsity 8 10 11 10 9 7 9 9 11 84 Jack Bull '19
Nolan Beaty '19
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 TOT Sailors
Grosse Pointe South High School Grosse Pointe South High School GPS Blue Devils Gold 2 1 6 5 3 2 1 1 1 22 John Walton '18
Ben Peters '16
East Grand Rapids East Grand Rapids Varsity One 5 2 1 1 6 10 3 6 2 36 Justin Lovell '17 [1-8]
Graham Post '17 [9]
Regan Pitts '18 [1-8]
Justin Lovell '17 [9]
Grosse Ile High School Grosse Ile High School Grosse Ile Red 1 3 8 8 5 1 7 3 3 39 Ian Reimel '19
Neil Quinlan '17
Detroit Country Day School Detroit Country Day School Varsity 4 4 2 4 8 3 5 5 8 43 Grant Kojaian '16
Wade Lorimer '16
St. Francis High School Traverse City St. Francis High School Traverse City St Francis Gladiator 10 6 4 3 2 6 6 4 4 45 Katherine Clulo '17 [1-9]
Sophia Elkhart '18 [1-2]
Thomas Jameson '16 [3-9]
Spring Lake High School Spring Lake High School Red 7 8 3 6 1 7 4 8 7 51 Anne Allman '16
Sam Colvin '16
Cranbrook Kingswood Cranbrook Kingswood Cranes 6 5 10 2 7 11 10 9 6 66 Hunter Shuert '17
Jimmy Chen '18
Grosse Pointe North High School Grosse Pointe North High School Norsemen 8 10 9 9 11 5 2 7 5 66 Adam Weinkauf '18 [1-2]
Ryan Rozycki '16 [3-9]
John Godoshian '18 [1-2, 7-9]
Teddy Prokop '19 [3-4]
Nicole Fazekas '17 [5-6]
Traverse City West Traverse City West Varsity 9 7 5 10 10 4 11 2 10 68 Ian Beck '18
Kyle Sitkins '16
West Bloomfield High School West Bloomfield High School Lakers Varsity 3 9 7 7 4 9 9 11 11 70 Nicole Millerman '19
Shane Sanghvi '19
Traverse City Central Traverse City Central Varsity 11 11 11 11 9 8 8 10 9 88 Caelan Wright '19
Olivia Wilson '18
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.100+0.10
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2015 (13 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A
Cranbrook KingswoodCranbrook Kingswood Cranes113355779
Detroit Country Day SchoolDetroit Country Day School Varsity2244668810
East Grand RapidsEast Grand Rapids Varsity One3355779911
Grosse Ile High SchoolGrosse Ile High School Grosse Ile Red44668810101
Grosse Pointe North High SchoolGrosse Pointe North High School Norsemen55779911112
Grosse Pointe South High SchoolGrosse Pointe South High School GPS Blue Devils Gold66881010113
Spring Lake High SchoolSpring Lake High School Red77991111224
St. Francis High School Traverse CitySt. Francis High School Traverse City St Francis Gladiator88101011335
Traverse City CentralTraverse City Central Varsity99111122446
Traverse City WestTraverse City West Varsity10101133557
West Bloomfield High SchoolWest Bloomfield High School Lakers Varsity11112244668

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B
Cranbrook KingswoodCranbrook Kingswood Cranes2244668810
Detroit Country Day SchoolDetroit Country Day School Varsity3355779911
East Grand RapidsEast Grand Rapids Varsity One44668810101
Grosse Ile High SchoolGrosse Ile High School Grosse Ile Red55779911112
Grosse Pointe North High SchoolGrosse Pointe North High School Norsemen66881010113
Grosse Pointe South High SchoolGrosse Pointe South High School GPS Blue Devils Gold77991111224
Spring Lake High SchoolSpring Lake High School Red88101011335
St. Francis High School Traverse CitySt. Francis High School Traverse City St Francis Gladiator99111122446
Traverse City CentralTraverse City Central Varsity10101133557
Traverse City WestTraverse City West Varsity11112244668
West Bloomfield High SchoolWest Bloomfield High School Lakers Varsity113355779
School / Team SkipperCrew
Cranbrook Kingswood Cranbrook Kingswood Allison Glover '17 Kait Alvord '16
Cranes Hunter Shuert '17 Jimmy Chen '18
Detroit Country Day School Detroit Country Day School Cole Wiand '16 [1-9] Liz Obermaier '17 [1-5]
Harrison George '18 [6-9]
Varsity Grant Kojaian '16 Wade Lorimer '16
East Grand Rapids East Grand Rapids Connor Goulet '17 Murphy Wynsma '19
Varsity One Justin Lovell '17 [1-8]
Graham Post '17 [9]		 Regan Pitts '18 [1-8]
Justin Lovell '17 [9]
Grosse Ile High School Grosse Ile High School Chris Twomley '17 [1-2, 5-6, 9]
Molly Matthews '19 [3-4, 7-8]		 Tyler Pardo '18 [1-2, 5-6, 9]
Michael Kalata '18 [3-4, 7-8]
Grosse Ile Red Ian Reimel '19 Neil Quinlan '17
Grosse Pointe North High School Grosse Pointe North High School Lindsey Ramsdell '18 [1-9] Adam Weinkauf '18 [1-2]
Mathew Moores '17 [3-9]
Norsemen Adam Weinkauf '18 [1-2]
Ryan Rozycki '16 [3-9]		 John Godoshian '18 [1-2, 7-9]
Teddy Prokop '19 [3-4]
Nicole Fazekas '17 [5-6]
Grosse Pointe South High School Grosse Pointe South High School Blake Stackpoole '18 [1-9] John Walton '18 [1-2]
David Silverman '17 [3-9]
GPS Blue Devils Gold John Walton '18 Ben Peters '16
Spring Lake High School Spring Lake High School Jonathan Prins '16 Michael Kucks '16
Red Anne Allman '16 Sam Colvin '16
St. Francis High School Traverse City St. Francis High School Traverse City Maryfrances Myler '18 Jamie Mcclellan '17
St Francis Gladiator Katherine Clulo '17 [1-9] Sophia Elkhart '18 [1-2]
Thomas Jameson '16 [3-9]
Traverse City Central Traverse City Central Ajay Provost '19 Amelia Burke '18
Varsity Caelan Wright '19 Olivia Wilson '18
Traverse City West Traverse City West Brooke Ostrowski '18 Katherine Crewes '17
Varsity Ian Beck '18 Kyle Sitkins '16
West Bloomfield High School West Bloomfield High School Jack Bull '19 Nolan Beaty '19
Lakers Varsity Nicole Millerman '19 Shane Sanghvi '19

Conditions — 10/24/2015 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 84%  ·  Pressure 1010.9 hPa

Temperature

61°F
↑ 69°F   ↓ 51°F
Feels like 58°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
10.5 kn
avg  ·  max 13.8 kn
Gusts to 28.8 kn
From SSW (194°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine1.1 hrs Humidity84% Pressure1010.9 hPa Rain0.14 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 12 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Detroit Country Day: a typical day (+0.01)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment +0.09 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.10
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.05 ± 0.14)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Detroit Country Day by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 1 labelled days at Detroit Country Day, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →