MDISA Fleet Race

HostArchbishop Spalding/Broadneck/Key/South River
Date04/07/2018
TypeDistrict Champ Qualifier
BoatCFJ
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Annapolis High School	Panthers	28	31	59
2	South River High School	Seahawks	37	26	63
3	Severn School	Admirals	46	29	75
4	St. Mary's High School (MD)	Saints	52	47	99
5	Broadneck High School	Bruins	48	51	99
6	Archbishop Spalding	Cavaliers	31	79	110
7	Yorktown	Patriots	55	76	131
8	Severna Park	Falcons	76	63	139
9	Key School	Zags	72	83	155
10	Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS	Battlin' Baron	71	89	160
11	Bishop O'Connell High School	Knights	77	95	172
12	Great Mills High School	Hornets	103	69	172
13	Leonardtown High School	Raiders	92	97	189
14	Boys Latin	Lakers	107	86	193
15	Sts. Peter & Paul	Sabres	111	108	219
16	Towson High School	Generals	105	116	221
17	St. Mary's Ryken	Knights	133	102	235
18	Gunston	Herons	125	126	251

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	TOT	Sailors
Annapolis High School	Panthers	6	4	2	3	3	6	1	3	28	Porter Kavle '18 Ava Walker '20
Archbishop Spalding	Cavaliers	1	7	1	5	4	4	5	4	31	Jake Vickers '18 Noelle Owen '19
South River High School	Seahawks	2	3	9	4	2	10	2	5	37	Leo Boucher '18 [1-8] Vaughan Hood '20 [1-2, 5-6] Bryce Ricewoolf '20 [3-4, 7-8]
Severn School	Admirals	7	1	3	1	1	11	3	DSQ	46	Mariner Fagan '20 [1-6] Caroline Bayless '19 [7-8] Caroline Mcneil '18 [1-6] Abby Tindall '19 [7-8]
Broadneck High School	Bruins	5	2	12	6	5	2	6	10	48	Katherine Bennett '18 Maggie Mckay '18
St. Mary's High School (MD)	Saints	3	5	5	8	14	1	14	2	52	James Golden '20 Amelia Johnson '21
Yorktown	Patriots	4	12	16	2	6	7	7	1	55	Colman Schofield '21 Matthew Boothby '21
Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS	Battlin' Baron	9	13	7	10	10	5	10	7	71	Friso Grolleman '20 Matt Budington '21
Key School	Zags	11	9	13	7	13	3	4	12	72	Nicholas Papadopoulos '18 Luke Koerschner '20
Severna Park	Falcons	16	15	4	9	7	9	8	8	76	Benjamin Podlich '18 [1-6] Ian Mathiesen '18 [7-8] Katherine Crawford '18 [1-4] Kc Galloway '20 [5-8]
Bishop O'Connell High School	Knights	10	10	6	11	11	8	15	6	77	Peter Lobaugh '20 Will Leggett '18
Leonardtown High School	Raiders	13	11	11	13	8	12	9	15	92	Daniel Unangst '20 [1-8] Julia Marino '20 [1-4] Ryan Lacey '18 [5-8]
Great Mills High School	Hornets	14	8	10	14	16	16	11	14	103	Olivia Sowa '20 Nico Funya '18
Towson High School	Generals	8	16	14	16	12	13	13	13	105	Ethan Rushlow '20 Marina Dryer '21
Boys Latin	Lakers	12	14	8	12	9	18	18	16	107	Blake Vogel '21 [1-6] Olivia Yazigi '20 [7-8] Helena Ware '18 [1-6]
Sts. Peter & Paul	Sabres	17	6	17	15	15	14	16	11	111	Caroline James '20 Ally Shearon '18
Gunston	Herons	18	18	18	18	17	15	12	9	125	Sam Johnson '18 [1-4] Mark Bourdin '20 [5-8] Cora Duncan '19 [1-4] Marisa Pisapia '19 [5-8]
St. Mary's Ryken	Knights	15	17	15	17	18	17	17	17	133	Catherine Krissoff '19 Conor Flynn '18

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	TOT	Sailors
South River High School	Seahawks	5	3	5	4	1	6	1	1	26	Tyler Mowry '18 [1-8] Dylan Saxman '21 [1-2] Hunter Ward '20 [3-4] Rachel O'Neil '20 [5-6] Laurel Bollinger '20 [7-8]
Severn School	Admirals	4	2	6	1	2	5	5	4	29	Madeline Hawkins '20 [1-6] Sam Bruce '20 [7-8] Blair Reilly '18 [1-6] Camille White '18 [7-8]
Annapolis High School	Panthers	2	8	4	7	4	2	2	2	31	Nicholas Salvesen '18 Kimberly Leonard '18
St. Mary's High School (MD)	Saints	3	5	8	2	DSQ	1	4	5	47	Trevor Davis '20 Allison Forsyth '18
Broadneck High School	Bruins	17	1	9	6	5	7	3	3	51	Emma Snead '19 Nicole Ryan '18
Severna Park	Falcons	11	7	10	5	12	4	7	7	63	Stanley Galloway '18 [1-8] Maddie Lenhart '19 [1-4] Gillian Eitel '18 [5-8]
Great Mills High School	Hornets	7	6	3	8	6	11	18	10	69	Lucy Paskoff '20 Hannah Carlsen '19
Yorktown	Patriots	9	4	13	9	7	10	11	13	76	Megan Gimple '18 William Bernhardt '21
Archbishop Spalding	Cavaliers	DSQ	14	2	12	8	3	12	9	79	Jack Irvin '17 Caroline Kelly '19
Key School	Zags	1	13	OCS	3	DNF	8	14	6	83	Harrison Reisinger '18 [1-6] Will Cornell '21 [7-8] Charles Anderson '21 [1-6] Max Shapiro '20 [7-8]
Boys Latin	Lakers	13	9	7	17	3	12	10	15	86	William Dryer '20 Conner Sciullo '21
Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS	Battlin' Baron	15	16	1	10	9	13	17	8	89	Nick Budington '21 C. Augie Spendley '19
Bishop O'Connell High School	Knights	6	15	12	11	14	18	8	11	95	Hannah Leggett '20 Nick Bus '21
Leonardtown High School	Raiders	8	12	14	16	10	15	6	16	97	Emily Williams '20 [1-8] Ryan Lacey '18 [1-4] Lauren Miller '18 [5-8]
St. Mary's Ryken	Knights	10	10	17	13	11	14	9	18	102	Jennifer Tennant '19 Catherine Nguyen '19
Sts. Peter & Paul	Sabres	14	11	16	18	13	9	15	12	108	Sunny Sturmer '19 [1-8] Emma Kelley '18 [1-2, 5-6] Ryleigh Kealy '21 [3-4] Sarah Rosa '20 [7-8]
Towson High School	Generals	12	17	11	14	16	16	16	14	116	Connor Vogel '20 [1-2, 7-8] Reese Meyers '22 [3-6] Reese Meyers '22 [1-2, 7-8] Connor Vogel '20 [3-6]
Gunston	Herons	16	18	15	15	15	17	13	17	126	Cotter Buckley '20 [1-4] Maccallum Borghardt '20 [5-8] Sam Angelini '20 [1-4] Anna Wolf '19 [5-8]

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.090+0.09

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2018 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A	8A
Annapolis High School Panthers	1	1	3	3	5	5	7	7
Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers	2	2	4	4	6	6	8	8
Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Battlin' Baron	3	3	5	5	7	7	9	9
Bishop O'Connell High School Knights	4	4	6	6	8	8	10	10
Boys Latin Lakers	5	5	7	7	9	9	11	11
Broadneck High School Bruins	6	6	8	8	10	10	12	12
Great Mills High School Hornets	7	7	9	9	11	11	13	13
Key School Zags	9	9	11	11	13	13	15	15
Leonardtown High School Raiders	10	10	12	12	14	14	16	16
Sts. Peter & Paul Sabres	11	11	13	13	15	15	17	17
Severn School Admirals	12	12	14	14	16	16	18	18
Severna Park Falcons	13	13	15	15	17	17	1	1
South River High School Seahawks	14	14	16	16	18	18	2	2
St. Mary's Ryken Knights	16	16	18	18	2	2	4	4
St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints	15	15	17	17	1	1	3	3
Gunston Herons	8	8	10	10	12	12	14	14
Towson High School Generals	17	17	1	1	3	3	5	5
Yorktown Patriots	18	18	2	2	4	4	6	6

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B	7B	8B
Annapolis High School Panthers	2	2	4	4	6	6	8	8
Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers	3	3	5	5	7	7	9	9
Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Battlin' Baron	4	4	6	6	8	8	10	10
Bishop O'Connell High School Knights	5	5	7	7	9	9	11	11
Boys Latin Lakers	6	6	8	8	10	10	12	12
Broadneck High School Bruins	7	7	9	9	11	11	13	13
Great Mills High School Hornets	8	8	10	10	12	12	14	14
Key School Zags	10	10	12	12	14	14	16	16
Leonardtown High School Raiders	11	11	13	13	15	15	17	17
Sts. Peter & Paul Sabres	12	12	14	14	16	16	18	18
Severn School Admirals	13	13	15	15	17	17	1	1
Severna Park Falcons	14	14	16	16	18	18	2	2
South River High School Seahawks	15	15	17	17	1	1	3	3
St. Mary's Ryken Knights	17	17	1	1	3	3	5	5
St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints	16	16	18	18	2	2	4	4
Gunston Herons	9	9	11	11	13	13	15	15
Towson High School Generals	18	18	2	2	4	4	6	6
Yorktown Patriots	1	1	3	3	5	5	7	7

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Annapolis High School	Porter Kavle '18	Ava Walker '20
Panthers	Nicholas Salvesen '18	Kimberly Leonard '18
Archbishop Spalding	Jake Vickers '18	Noelle Owen '19
Cavaliers	Jack Irvin '17	Caroline Kelly '19
Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS	Friso Grolleman '20	Matt Budington '21
Battlin' Baron	Nick Budington '21	C. Augie Spendley '19
Bishop O'Connell High School	Peter Lobaugh '20	Will Leggett '18
Knights	Hannah Leggett '20	Nick Bus '21
Boys Latin	Blake Vogel '21 [1-6] Olivia Yazigi '20 [7-8]	Helena Ware '18 [1-6]
Lakers	William Dryer '20	Conner Sciullo '21
Broadneck High School	Katherine Bennett '18	Maggie Mckay '18
Bruins	Emma Snead '19	Nicole Ryan '18
Great Mills High School	Olivia Sowa '20	Nico Funya '18
Hornets	Lucy Paskoff '20	Hannah Carlsen '19
Gunston	Sam Johnson '18 [1-4] Mark Bourdin '20 [5-8]	Cora Duncan '19 [1-4] Marisa Pisapia '19 [5-8]
Herons	Cotter Buckley '20 [1-4] Maccallum Borghardt '20 [5-8]	Sam Angelini '20 [1-4] Anna Wolf '19 [5-8]
Key School	Nicholas Papadopoulos '18	Luke Koerschner '20
Zags	Harrison Reisinger '18 [1-6] Will Cornell '21 [7-8]	Charles Anderson '21 [1-6] Max Shapiro '20 [7-8]
Leonardtown High School	Daniel Unangst '20 [1-8]	Julia Marino '20 [1-4] Ryan Lacey '18 [5-8]
Raiders	Emily Williams '20 [1-8]	Ryan Lacey '18 [1-4] Lauren Miller '18 [5-8]
Severn School	Mariner Fagan '20 [1-6] Caroline Bayless '19 [7-8]	Caroline Mcneil '18 [1-6] Abby Tindall '19 [7-8]
Admirals	Madeline Hawkins '20 [1-6] Sam Bruce '20 [7-8]	Blair Reilly '18 [1-6] Camille White '18 [7-8]
Severna Park	Benjamin Podlich '18 [1-6] Ian Mathiesen '18 [7-8]	Katherine Crawford '18 [1-4] Kc Galloway '20 [5-8]
Falcons	Stanley Galloway '18 [1-8]	Maddie Lenhart '19 [1-4] Gillian Eitel '18 [5-8]
South River High School	Leo Boucher '18 [1-8]	Vaughan Hood '20 [1-2, 5-6] Bryce Ricewoolf '20 [3-4, 7-8]
Seahawks	Tyler Mowry '18 [1-8]	Dylan Saxman '21 [1-2] Hunter Ward '20 [3-4] Rachel O'Neil '20 [5-6] Laurel Bollinger '20 [7-8]
St. Mary's High School (MD)	James Golden '20	Amelia Johnson '21
Saints	Trevor Davis '20	Allison Forsyth '18
St. Mary's Ryken	Catherine Krissoff '19	Conor Flynn '18
Knights	Jennifer Tennant '19	Catherine Nguyen '19
Sts. Peter & Paul	Caroline James '20	Ally Shearon '18
Sabres	Sunny Sturmer '19 [1-8]	Emma Kelley '18 [1-2, 5-6] Ryleigh Kealy '21 [3-4] Sarah Rosa '20 [7-8]
Towson High School	Ethan Rushlow '20	Marina Dryer '21
Generals	Connor Vogel '20 [1-2, 7-8] Reese Meyers '22 [3-6]	Reese Meyers '22 [1-2, 7-8] Connor Vogel '20 [3-6]
Yorktown	Colman Schofield '21	Matthew Boothby '21
Patriots	Megan Gimple '18	William Bernhardt '21

Conditions — 04/07/2018 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 48% · Pressure 1014.0 hPa

Temperature

42°F

↑ 43°F ↓ 41°F

Feels like 34°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

6.5 kn

avg · max 8.7 kn

Gusts to 19.4 kn

From NNW (344°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover99% Sunshine0.7 hrs Humidity48% Pressure1014.0 hPa Rain0.01 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: N 13 kn · N 14 kn (scorer’s report)

In this breeze at Archbishop Spalding/Broadneck/Key/South River: a typical day (−0.01)

Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.

Fleet adjustment −0.01 (an ordinary fleet) · combined forecast −0.02

Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.03 ± 0.09)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Archbishop Spalding/Broadneck/Key/South River by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 2 labelled days at Archbishop Spalding/Broadneck/Key/South River, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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