| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Severn School | Admirals | 6–1 |
| 2 |  |
Broadneck High School | Bruins | 5–2 |
| 3 |  |
Annapolis High School | Panthers | 4–3 |
| 4 |  |
St. Mary's High School (MD) | Saints | 4–3 |
| 5 |  |
Archbishop Spalding | Cavaliers | 4–3 |
| 6 |  |
Edmund Burke School | Bengals | 3–4 |
| 7 |  |
Key School | Zags | 2–5 |
| 8 |  |
Severna Park | Falcons | 0–7 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 2,547 team race matches sailed before 2016-10-08, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 10 of 16 matches (62%) with a log-loss of 0.644 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went poorly for the forecast. Orderliness −0.60 ± 0.64: a typical event, more orderly than 15% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Broadneck High School | 6.06 | 8.40 | 5–1 | 3.3 | +2.34 | 2.0 | 13% |
| 6 | Edmund Burke School | 4.84 | 6.00 | 3–2 | 2.0 | +1.16 | 0.7 | 30% |
| 4 | St. Mary's High School (MD) | 5.40 | 6.05 | 3–2 | 2.4 | +0.65 | 0.2 | 48% |
| 3 | Annapolis High School | 6.52 | 5.72 | 3–2 | 3.7 | −0.80 | 0.3 | 88% |
| 7 | Key School | 5.52 | 4.72 | 2–3 | 2.7 | −0.80 | 0.3 | 87% |
| 1 | Severn School | 8.76 | 5.76 | 0–1 | 0.9 | ≤−3.00 | 2.2 | >99% |
| 8 | Severna Park | 3.89 | 0.89 | 0–5 | 1.1 | ≤−3.00 | 1.6 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jasper Frazee | Broadneck High School | 0.80 | 1.66 | 3–1 | 2.5 | +0.86 | 0.2 | 51% |
| James Golden | St. Mary's High School (MD) | 1.76 | 2.42 | 3–2 | 2.4 | +0.65 | 0.2 | 48% |
| Remington King | Annapolis High School | 2.04 | 1.24 | 3–2 | 3.7 | −0.80 | 0.3 | 88% |
| Ian Mathiesen | Severna Park | 1.53 | -1.47 | 0–5 | 1.1 | ≤−3.00 | 1.6 | >99% |
| Benjamin Podlich | Severna Park | 1.02 | -1.98 | 0–5 | 1.1 | ≤−3.00 | 1.6 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Rd | # | Winner | Loser | P(winner) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Broadneck High School | Severn School | 13% | upset |
| 1 | 2 | St. Mary's High School (MD) | Edmund Burke School | 59% | |
| 1 | 4 | Key School | Severna Park | 80% | |
| 1 | 5 | Broadneck High School | St. Mary's High School (MD) | 69% | |
| 1 | 7 | Edmund Burke School | Severna Park | 68% | |
| 1 | 8 | Key School | Annapolis High School | 32% | upset |
| 1 | 10 | Broadneck High School | Severna Park | 82% | |
| 1 | 12 | Edmund Burke School | Key School | 37% | upset |
| 1 | 14 | Annapolis High School | St. Mary's High School (MD) | 70% | |
| 1 | 15 | Edmund Burke School | Broadneck High School | 31% | upset |
| 1 | 17 | Annapolis High School | Severna Park | 88% | |
| 1 | 20 | Broadneck High School | Key School | 58% | |
| 1 | 21 | Annapolis High School | Edmund Burke School | 78% | |
| 1 | 24 | St. Mary's High School (MD) | Key School | 48% | upset |
| 1 | 26 | Broadneck High School | Annapolis High School | 39% | upset |
| 1 | 27 | St. Mary's High School (MD) | Severna Park | 76% |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Bruins | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Admirals | 2-4-5 |
| 2 | |
Saints | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Bengals | 2-4-6 |
| 3 | |
Panthers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Cavaliers | 3-4-6 |
| 4 | |
Zags | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Falcons | 3-4-6 |
| 5 | |
Bruins | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Saints | 2-3-6 |
| 6 | |
Admirals | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cavaliers | 4-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Bengals | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Falcons | 1-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Zags | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Panthers | 3-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Saints | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Cavaliers | 3-4-5 |
| 10 | |
Bruins | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Falcons | 4-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Admirals | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Panthers | 1-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Bengals | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Zags | 2-3-6 |
| 13 | |
Cavaliers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Falcons | 3-4-6 |
| 14 | |
Panthers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Saints | 3-4-6 |
| 15 | |
Bengals | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bruins | 3-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Admirals | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Zags | 3-4-5 |
| 17 | |
Panthers | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Falcons | 1-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Cavaliers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bengals | 3-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Admirals | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Saints | 3-4-5 |
| 20 | |
Bruins | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Zags | 2-4-5 |
| 21 | |
Panthers | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Bengals | 2-5-6 |
| 22 | |
Admirals | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Falcons | 4-5-6 |
| 23 | |
Cavaliers | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Bruins | 1-5-6 |
| 24 | |
Saints | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Zags | 3-5-6 |
| 25 | |
Admirals | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bengals | 3-4-6 |
| 26 | |
Bruins | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Panthers | 2-4-6 |
| 27 | |
Saints | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Falcons | 3-5-6 |
| 28 | |
Cavaliers | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Zags | 2-5-6 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.10 means a rating gap counts about 9% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
