Broadneck High School '17
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.68 (fleet 1.09) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 18–18 (50%) as crew 7–0 (100%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2017 | 3 | 10–10 | 7–0 |
| Fall 2016 | 2 | 8–8 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 5 graded regattas (43 matches) the record is 25–18 against 23.5 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+1.5). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 3 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-04-22 | MASSA Spring Team Race Championship | skipper | 0.96 | 0.50 | 6–7 | 6.8 | −0.47 | 0.2 | 81% |
| 2017-04-01 | MDISA Maryland State Team Racing Championship | skipper | 0.89 | 1.44 | 4–3 | 3.4 | +0.55 | 0.2 | 48% |
| 2017-03-12 | SSA Team Race Regatta | crew | 1.11 | 4.11 | 7–0 | 5.3 | ≥+3.00 | 2.7 | 12% |
| 2016-10-29 | MASSA Fall Team Race Championship | skipper | 0.86 | 0.53 | 5–7 | 5.5 | −0.33 | 0.1 | 76% |
| 2016-10-08 | MDISA Fall Team Race Championship | skipper | 0.80 | 1.66 | 3–1 | 2.5 | +0.86 | 0.2 | 51% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| SSA Team Race Regatta | Crew | TR | 7 | 100% | — |
| MDISA Maryland State Team Racing Championship | Skipper | TR | 7 | 71% | — |
| MASSA Spring Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 15 | 40% | — |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| MDISA Fall Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 7 | 71% | — |
| MASSA Fall Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 12 | 42% | — |
| AYC/SSA Fleet Race | Skipper | B | 4 | 7.8 | 0.24 |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Sail Black Rock Intersectional | Skipper | B | 6 | 5.7 | 1.49 |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| MASSA 2015 Silver Championship | Skipper | B | 4 | 7.0 | 0.04 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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