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MASSA 2015 Silver Championship

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 36 42 78
2 Edmund Burke School Edmund Burke School Varsity 42 60 102
3 Mercy High School Mercy High School Varsity 60 51 111
4 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 70 43 113
5 St. Mary's High School (MD) St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints 54 67 121
6 Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Bruins 57 66 123
7 Gunston Gunston Varsity 69 72 141
8 The Stony Brook School The Stony Brook School Bears 59 86 145
9 Toms River South Toms River South Indians 76 80 156
10 Severna Park Severna Park Falcons 93 71 164
11 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 112 95 207
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 TOT Sailors
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 5 1 1 3 4 2 3 1 10 5 1 36 Ellie Maus '18
Daniel Vail '17
Edmund Burke School Edmund Burke School Varsity 9 4 2 8 3 1 1 3 5 2 4 42 Casey Cabot '17 [1-11]
Genevieve Dickinson '17 [1-2]
Talia Frank '17 [3-11]
St. Mary's High School (MD) St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints 1 6 4 4 1 7 4 4 8 7 8 54 Morgan Sailer '15
Victoria Pynemercier '15
Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Bruins 3 2 3 6 10 4 2 9 2 4 DNS 57 Philip Davis '16
Brigid Mckay '17
The Stony Brook School The Stony Brook School Bears 10 8 5 11 2 3 5 10 1 1 3 59 Joshua Martin '17
Kadin Via '17
Mercy High School Mercy High School Varsity 2 3 6 5 7 8 6 7 3 3 10 60 Bridget Lawless '17
Alex Fasino Bush '15
Gunston Gunston Varsity 6 7 9 7 6 5 9 2 7 9 2 69 Kaeo Clarke '15 [1-11]
Katie Larrimore '16 [1-6]
Chad Angelini '17 [7-10]
Birdie Clarke '16 [11]
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 4 5 11 2 8 6 7 5 9 6 7 70 Brendan Little '18
Alara Sahin '18
Toms River South Toms River South Indians 11 10 8 1 5 9 8 6 4 8 6 76 Katie Oksen '15
Lauren Zelenak '17
Severna Park Severna Park Falcons 7 9 7 9 DNF 10 10 8 6 10 5 93 Stanley Galloway '18
Lindsey Flagler '16
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 8 11 10 10 9 11 11 11 11 11 9 112 Kieran Sweeney '15
Juliana Rustum '16
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 TOT Sailors
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 9 1 1 5 3 1 8 2 3 6 3 42 Joe Morrison '16
Anne Burns '16
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 2 10 2 4 2 3 1 4 2 4 9 43 Zoe Harding '18
Sally Johnson '18
Mercy High School Mercy High School Varsity 4 8 3 3 1 2 7 5 9 8 1 51 Gavin First Name Last Name Graduation Year Delete Row Delete Row Delete Row Delete Row Delete Row Delete Row Bloom '17
Sophie Aureli '18
Edmund Burke School Edmund Burke School Varsity 1 2 DSQ DNS 11 5 6 7 1 1 2 60 Tye Rubin '17 [1-4, 7-11]
Marley Hillman '17 [5-6]
River Carson '17 [1-4, 7-11]
Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Bruins 7 3 5 2 7 7 2 9 6 11 7 66 Adian Molesky '16 [1-4]
Lucas Tucker '17 [5-6, 11]
Jasper Frazee '17 [7-10]
John Morrison '17 [1-4, 9-10]
Allison Gingerich '17 [5-8, 11]
St. Mary's High School (MD) St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints 8 7 4 8 4 11 11 1 7 2 4 67 Michael Bisson '18 [1-11]
Kate Rice '16 [1-4, 7-11]
Caroline Feeley '16 [5-6]
Severna Park Severna Park Falcons 6 6 9 1 8 8 10 8 4 3 8 71 Kate Riley '18 [1-4, 7-10]
Benjamin Podlich '18 [5-6, 11]
Andrew Vernon '15 [1-4, 7-10]
Gunston Gunston Varsity 5 9 6 7 6 10 4 6 5 9 5 72 Luke Miller '16 [1-6, 9-10]
George Bowie '17 [7-8, 11]
Claire Schmittinger '16 [1-2, 5-11]
George Bowie '17 [3-4]
Toms River South Toms River South Indians 3 DNS 8 6 5 6 5 10 8 7 10 80 Joey Cashman '18
Willow Wahlers '17
The Stony Brook School The Stony Brook School Bears 11 5 7 9 9 4 3 11 11 10 6 86 Julia Ray '17 [1-2, 5-8, 11]
Nicholas Buscemi '18 [3-4, 9-10]
Kimberly Cataudella '16 [1-2, 5-8, 11]
Michael Bilfinger '17 [3-4, 9-10]
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 10 4 DNF DNS 10 9 9 3 10 5 11 95 Kk Newsham '15
Nicole Owens '15
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.080+0.08
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2015 (4 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A11A
Broadneck High SchoolBroadneck High School Bruins113355779911
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses2244668810101
Edmund Burke SchoolEdmund Burke School Varsity3355779911112
Mercy High SchoolMercy High School Varsity4466881010113
Norfolk Collegiate SchoolNorfolk Collegiate School Oaks5577991111224
Severna ParkSeverna Park Falcons6688101011335
St. Mary's High School (MD)St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints7799111122446
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers8810101133557
GunstonGunston Varsity9911112244668
The Stony Brook SchoolThe Stony Brook School Bears1010113355779
Toms River SouthToms River South Indians11112244668810

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B11B
Broadneck High SchoolBroadneck High School Bruins2244668810101
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses3355779911112
Edmund Burke SchoolEdmund Burke School Varsity4466881010113
Mercy High SchoolMercy High School Varsity5577991111224
Norfolk Collegiate SchoolNorfolk Collegiate School Oaks6688101011335
Severna ParkSeverna Park Falcons7799111122446
St. Mary's High School (MD)St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints8810101133557
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers9911112244668
GunstonGunston Varsity1010113355779
The Stony Brook SchoolThe Stony Brook School Bears11112244668810
Toms River SouthToms River South Indians113355779911
School / Team SkipperCrew
Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Philip Davis '16 Brigid Mckay '17
Bruins Adian Molesky '16 [1-4]
Lucas Tucker '17 [5-6, 11]
Jasper Frazee '17 [7-10]		 John Morrison '17 [1-4, 9-10]
Allison Gingerich '17 [5-8, 11]
Christchurch School Christchurch School Brendan Little '18 Alara Sahin '18
Seahorses Zoe Harding '18 Sally Johnson '18
Edmund Burke School Edmund Burke School Casey Cabot '17 [1-11] Genevieve Dickinson '17 [1-2]
Talia Frank '17 [3-11]
Varsity Tye Rubin '17 [1-4, 7-11]
Marley Hillman '17 [5-6]		 River Carson '17 [1-4, 7-11]
Gunston Gunston Kaeo Clarke '15 [1-11] Katie Larrimore '16 [1-6]
Chad Angelini '17 [7-10]
Birdie Clarke '16 [11]
Varsity Luke Miller '16 [1-6, 9-10]
George Bowie '17 [7-8, 11]		 Claire Schmittinger '16 [1-2, 5-11]
George Bowie '17 [3-4]
Mercy High School Mercy High School Bridget Lawless '17 Alex Fasino Bush '15
Varsity Gavin First Name Last Name Graduation Year Delete Row Delete Row Delete Row Delete Row Delete Row Delete Row Bloom '17 Sophie Aureli '18
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Ellie Maus '18 Daniel Vail '17
Oaks Joe Morrison '16 Anne Burns '16
Severna Park Severna Park Stanley Galloway '18 Lindsey Flagler '16
Falcons Kate Riley '18 [1-4, 7-10]
Benjamin Podlich '18 [5-6, 11]		 Andrew Vernon '15 [1-4, 7-10]
St. Mary's High School (MD) St. Mary's High School (MD) Morgan Sailer '15 Victoria Pynemercier '15
Saints Michael Bisson '18 [1-11] Kate Rice '16 [1-4, 7-11]
Caroline Feeley '16 [5-6]
Summit High School Summit High School Kieran Sweeney '15 Juliana Rustum '16
Hilltoppers Kk Newsham '15 Nicole Owens '15
The Stony Brook School The Stony Brook School Joshua Martin '17 Kadin Via '17
Bears Julia Ray '17 [1-2, 5-8, 11]
Nicholas Buscemi '18 [3-4, 9-10]		 Kimberly Cataudella '16 [1-2, 5-8, 11]
Michael Bilfinger '17 [3-4, 9-10]
Toms River South Toms River South Katie Oksen '15 Lauren Zelenak '17
Indians Joey Cashman '18 Willow Wahlers '17

Conditions — 04/11/2015 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 48%  ·  Pressure 1018.3 hPa

Temperature

57°F
↑ 60°F   ↓ 53°F
Feels like 50°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
10.0 kn
avg  ·  max 10.9 kn
Gusts to 24.1 kn
From NW (304°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover17% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity48% Pressure1018.3 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NW 12 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Washington College: a favourites’ day (+0.03)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.06 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.09
Actual: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.34 ± 0.14)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 3% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Washington College by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (17 labelled days at Washington College).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →