Broadneck High School '19
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.16 (fleet 0.25) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as crew 31–21 (60%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2017 | 1 | — | 5–3 |
| Spring 2017 | 4 | — | 21–17 |
| Fall 2016 | 1 | — | 5–1 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 6 graded regattas (52 matches) the record is 31–21 against 26.9 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+4.1). 2 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 8 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-10-08 | MDISA Fall Team Race Championship | crew | 2.76 | 3.57 | 5–3 | 4.1 | +0.80 | 0.4 | 36% |
| 2017-05-27 | National Invitational Tournament (Founders Trophy) | crew | 2.09 | 2.31 | 5–8 | 4.5 | +0.22 | 0.1 | 49% |
| 2017-04-22 | MASSA Spring Team Race Championship | crew | 2.63 | 1.83 | 6–9 | 7.7 | −0.80 | 0.8 | 91% |
| 2017-04-01 | MDISA Maryland State Team Racing Championship | crew | 2.68 | 5.68 | 3–0 | 2.0 | ≥+3.00 | 1.6 | 28% |
| 2017-03-12 | SSA Team Race Regatta | crew | 2.65 | 5.65 | 7–0 | 5.3 | ≥+3.00 | 2.7 | 12% |
| 2016-10-08 | MDISA Fall Team Race Championship | crew | 2.51 | 4.85 | 5–1 | 3.3 | +2.34 | 2.0 | 13% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| SSA Team Race Regatta | Crew | TR | 7 | 100% | — |
| Phebe Corckran King Memorial Regatta | Crew | A | 2 | 3.0 | — |
| National Invitational Tournament (Founders Trophy) | Crew | TR | 13 | 38% | — |
| MDISA Spring Fleet Race Championship | Crew | A | 10 | 3.6 | — |
| MDISA Maryland State Team Racing Championship | Crew | TR | 7 | 71% | — |
| MASSA Spring Team Race Championship | Crew | TR | 15 | 40% | — |
| AYC Varsity Fleet Race | Crew | A | 8 | 2.8 | — |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| SCC Fleet Race | Crew | A | 8 | 2.5 | — |
| MDISA FALL CHAMPIONSHIP VARSITY | Crew | B | 6 | 4.8 | — |
| MDISA Fall Team Race Championship | Crew | TR | 7 | 71% | — |
| MASSA Fall Fleet Gold Championship | Crew | A | 10 | 5.6 | — |
| Atlantic Coast Championship | Crew | A | 2 | 7.5 | — |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICSA | Noelle Owen |  College of Charleston |
'24 |
| ISSA | Noelle Owen |  Archbishop Spalding |
'19 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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