Atlantic Coast Championship

HostRochester Yacht Club
Date11/12/2016
TypeNational Invitational
BoatC420
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Christchurch School	Seahorses	46	48	94
2	Falmouth High School (ME)	Yachtsmen	49	103	152
3	Antilles School	Hurricanes	105	52	157
4	Ranney School	Panthers	122	55	177
5	Norfolk Collegiate School	Oaks	103	90	193
6	Southern Regional High School	Rams	85	109	194
7	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	Varsity	105	90	195
8	Broadneck High School	Bruins	76	123	199
9	Severn School	Admirals	125	88	213
10	Christian Brothers Academy	Colts	147	78	225
11	Orono High School	Scarlet	49	177	226
12	Duxbury High School	Varsity	109	126	235
13	New Trier HS	Trevian	116	145	261
14	Sharon High School	Varsity	157	109	266
15	North Kingstown High School	Skippers	148	120	268
16	Belmont Hill School	Varsity	126	143	269
17	Wayzata High School	Navy	115	155	270
18	Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL	Wolfpack	158	117	275
19	Pine Lake Prep	Varsity	144	162	306
20	Pine Crest School	Varsity	212	221	433

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	TOT	Sailors
Christchurch School	Seahorses	2	1	1	8	1	1	11	11	3	4	3	46	Boyd Bragg '19 [1-11] Eric Demaro '18 [1-9] Alara Sahin '18 [10-11]
Falmouth High School (ME)	Yachtsmen	3	8	4	6	8	3	2	3	1	9	2	49	Caleb Robinson '18 [1-11] Grace Mooridian '17 [1-6, 9-11] Catherine Morrissette '20 [7-8]
Orono High School	Scarlet	7	2	7	4	4	2	1	5	7	1	9	49	Samuel Bartel '18 [1-11] Erik Sundberg '17 [1-4, 7-10] Erich Pinske '18 [5-6, 11]
Broadneck High School	Bruins	9	6	2	7	3	16	3	10	10	3	7	76	Phillip Schofield '17 [1-11] Noelle Owen '19 [1-2] Nicole Ryan '18 [3-11]
Southern Regional High School	Rams	6	5	9	RDG	12	13	10	1	8	8	5	85	Emily Haig '17 Paul Reiff '17
Norfolk Collegiate School	Oaks	15	7	11	2	15	15	7	19	5	6	1	103	Daniel Vail '17 [1-11] Sarah Smith '18 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10] Chapman Holt '20 [3-4, 7-8] Parker Purrington '19 [11]
Antilles School	Hurricanes	8	13	16	3	11	8	14	2	9	15	6	105	Sam Morrell '17 [1-11] Caroline Teare '17 [1-8] Michael Derrickson '18 [9-11]
Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	Varsity	13	11	6	15	13	4	8	7	4	14	10	105	James Wagner '17 Hanna Mularczyk '17
Duxbury High School	Varsity	11	4	17	11	6	10	13	14	6	13	4	109	Piers Klein '18 [1-11] William Seigener '18 [1-4] Paige Hoffman '17 [5-6, 9-10] Griffin Lorimer '18 [7-8, 11]
Wayzata High School	Navy	16	9	10	13	5	12	12	12	12	2	12	115	Jackson Connell '17 Brianna Misk '17
New Trier HS	Trevian	10	3	18	9	9	9	9	9	16	10	14	116	Spencer Keenan '17 Matthew Trunsky '17
Ranney School	Panthers	1	17	8	10	2	17	15	17	11	16	8	122	Luke Arnone '19 [1-11] Cameron Giblin '19 [1-2] Matthew Hamelsky '19 [3-11]
Severn School	Admirals	5	19	3	1	19	7	5	20	15	12	19	125	Sam Bruce '20 [1-10] Aidan Morgan '17 [11] Sophie Taczak '17 [1-10] Abby Tindall '19 [11]
Belmont Hill School	Varsity	12	14	14	16	10	6	17	15	2	7	13	126	Jack Murphy '18 Ryan Goldstein '18
Pine Lake Prep	Varsity	4	18	5	18	18	11	16	8	17	18	11	144	Garrett Mergenthaler '19 Jason Perryman '17
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts	14	16	20	17	16	14	4	13	13	5	15	147	Joe Laforgia '17 [1-11] John Cocozza '20 [1-2, 5-6] Justin Modin '19 [3-4, 7-11]
North Kingstown High School	Skippers	18	12	12	14	7	18	19	6	14	11	17	148	Marina Barzaghi '17 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10] Mikey O'Flaherty '17 [3-4, 7-8, 11] Adeline Sutton '17 [1-2, 5-6] Ryan Soucy '18 [3-4] Caroline Bourgeois '18 [7-8] Will Andrews '17 [9-11]
Sharon High School	Varsity	19	15	15	5	17	5	6	18	20	19	18	157	Jack Eberhardt '17 [1-8] Gautam Goel '17 [9-10] Aaron Fairchild '17 [11] Lynn Fu '18 [1-8] Alissa Chen '18 [9-10] Merrick Tian '18 [11]
Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL	Wolfpack	17	10	13	12	14	19	18	4	18	17	16	158	Logan O'Connor '17 [1-2, 5-6, 11] Ray Groble '17 [3-4, 7-10] Eleanor Westerbeck '19 [1-2] Cristina Dombrowski '19 [3-11]
Pine Crest School	Varsity	20	20	19	19	20	20	20	16	19	20	BYE	212	Ethan Grove '17 Leah Schulman '18

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	TOT	Sailors
Christchurch School	Seahorses	2	2	2	1	3	3	4	10	8	3	10	48	Benton Amthor '19 [1-8] Austin Freda '17 [9-11] Alara Sahin '18 [1-8] Eric Demaro '18 [9-11]
Antilles School	Hurricanes	11	8	5	2	5	1	7	1	1	8	3	52	Christopher Sharpless '19 [1-2, 4, 6, 9-10] Teddy Nicolosi '19 [3, 5, 7-8, 11] Andy Williams '20 [1-2, 6-7, 11] Ryan Hunter '17 [3-5, 8-10]
Ranney School	Panthers	1	3	1	19	2	2	2	4	2	7	12	55	Cameron Giblin '19 [1-11] Blake Epstein '19 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10] Catherine Vucetic '19 [3-4, 7-8, 11]
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts	9	9	13	6	15	16	1	3	3	2	1	78	Chris Magno '17 [1-2, 5-6] Michael Ehnot '18 [3-4, 7-11] Ryan Mullins '19 [1-2, 5-6]
Severn School	Admirals	4	19	11	4	6	14	3	6	5	10	6	88	Jordan Bruce '20 [1-10] Peter Jensen '18 [11] Blair Reilly '18 [1-10] Sam Reilly '19 [11]
Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	Varsity	7	10	9	15	1	19	6	5	9	4	5	90	Gloria Kevliciute '17 [1-11] Caroline Bernet '17 [1-9] Peter Odom '17 [10-11]
Norfolk Collegiate School	Oaks	8	5	7	12	9	6	14	9	11	5	4	90	Ellie Maus '18 [1-11] Matt Wright '19 [1-7] Hunter Kahler '17 [8-11]
Falmouth High School (ME)	Yachtsmen	5	11	4	16	7	8	10	8	12	11	11	103	Peter Morrissette '18 [1-11] Sierra Farhman '18 [1-2, 7-8] Owen White '18 [3-4, 9-11] Johnny Wahlig '20 [5-6]
Southern Regional High School	Rams	6	12	6	18	16	17	5	2	6	13	8	109	Tom Green '19 [1-4, 7-11] Dana Haig '18 [5-6] Emily Micciche '17 [1-4, 8-11] Tom Green '19 [5-6] Dana Haig '18 [7]
Sharon High School	Varsity	14	4	10	3	11	13	11	11	18	1	13	109	Meghan Haviland '17 Colin Snow '18
Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL	Wolfpack	12	6	18	5	19	5	9	14	14	6	9	117	Aisling Sullivan '18 [1-11] Nate Casale '17 [1-4, 9-11] Eleanor Westerbeck '19 [5-8]
North Kingstown High School	Skippers	3	1	12	11	18	18	8	7	7	18	17	120	Aidan Naughton '18 [1-2, 7-8] Aili Moffett '19 [3-4, 9-10] Alex Dicenso '19 [5-6, 11] Jaia Colongese '18 [1-2, 7-8] Will Andrews '17 [3-4] Rowan Westall '19 [5-6, 9-11]
Broadneck High School	Bruins	10	15	8	7	8	7	13	12	10	19	14	123	Katherine Bennett '18 John Morrison '17
Duxbury High School	Varsity	19	13	3	10	4	11	18	16	13	17	2	126	Nathan Ikeda '17 [1-7, 11] Philip Morse '17 [8-10] Caroline Williams '19 [1-4, 8] Elizabeth Linsdell '20 [5-7, 9-10] Griffin Lorimer '18 [11]
Belmont Hill School	Varsity	13	7	14	9	13	15	17	19	4	16	16	143	Francis Selldorff '19 [1-7, 9-11] Jake Whitney '17 [8] Jake Whitney '17 [1-6, 9-11] Ned Whelan '19 [7-8]
New Trier HS	Trevian	16	17	17	13	10	4	12	13	15	9	19	145	Lolly Vasilion '18 [1-11] Michael Rivkin '17 [1-9] Quinn Keenan '19 [10-11]
Wayzata High School	Navy	15	16	16	14	14	10	15	17	19	12	7	155	Emma Aubuchon '19 [1-2, 5-8, 11] Wiley Hunt '19 [3-4, 9-10] Anna Brew '17 [1-2, 5-8, 11]
Pine Lake Prep	Varsity	18	18	15	8	12	12	16	15	16	14	18	162	Sammy Choufanni '17 [1-11] Luke Volk '17 [1-6, 9-11] Robbie Mones '20 [7-8]
Orono High School	Scarlet	17	14	19	17	17	9	19	18	17	15	15	177	Rachel Bartel '20 [1-2, 8-11] Henry Jaffray '18 [3-7] Helen Mcdonnell '17 [1-8] Henry Jaffray '18 [9-10] Erik Sundberg '17 [11]
Pine Crest School	Varsity	20	20	20	20	20	20	20	20	20	20	DNF	221	Noah Fischer '19 Michael Gabe '18

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.080+0.08

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2016 (3 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A	8A	9A	10A	11A
Antilles School Hurricanes	1	1	3	3	5	5	7	7	9	9	11
Belmont Hill School Varsity	2	2	4	4	6	6	8	8	10	10	12
Broadneck High School Bruins	3	3	5	5	7	7	9	9	11	11	13
Christchurch School Seahorses	4	4	6	6	8	8	10	10	12	12	14
Christian Brothers Academy Colts	5	5	7	7	9	9	11	11	13	13	15
Duxbury High School Varsity	6	6	8	8	10	10	12	12	14	14	16
Falmouth High School (ME) Yachtsmen	7	7	9	9	11	11	13	13	15	15	17
New Trier HS Trevian	8	8	10	10	12	12	14	14	16	16	18
Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks	9	9	11	11	13	13	15	15	17	17	19
North Kingstown High School Skippers	10	10	12	12	14	14	16	16	18	18	20
Orono High School Scarlet	11	11	13	13	15	15	17	17	19	19	1
Pine Crest School Varsity	12	12	14	14	16	16	18	18	20	20	2
Pine Lake Prep Varsity	13	13	15	15	17	17	19	19	1	1	3
Ranney School Panthers	14	14	16	16	18	18	20	20	2	2	4
Severn School Admirals	15	15	17	17	19	19	1	1	3	3	5
Sharon High School Varsity	16	16	18	18	20	20	2	2	4	4	6
Southern Regional High School Rams	17	17	19	19	1	1	3	3	5	5	7
Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Wolfpack	18	18	20	20	2	2	4	4	6	6	8
Walter Payton College Preparatory High School Varsity	19	19	1	1	3	3	5	5	7	7	9
Wayzata High School Navy	20	20	2	2	4	4	6	6	8	8	10

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B	7B	8B	9B	10B	11B
Antilles School Hurricanes	2	2	4	4	6	6	8	8	10	10	12
Belmont Hill School Varsity	3	3	5	5	7	7	9	9	11	11	13
Broadneck High School Bruins	4	4	6	6	8	8	10	10	12	12	14
Christchurch School Seahorses	5	5	7	7	9	9	11	11	13	13	15
Christian Brothers Academy Colts	6	6	8	8	10	10	12	12	14	14	16
Duxbury High School Varsity	7	7	9	9	11	11	13	13	15	15	17
Falmouth High School (ME) Yachtsmen	8	8	10	10	12	12	14	14	16	16	18
New Trier HS Trevian	9	9	11	11	13	13	15	15	17	17	19
Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks	10	10	12	12	14	14	16	16	18	18	20
North Kingstown High School Skippers	11	11	13	13	15	15	17	17	19	19	1
Orono High School Scarlet	12	12	14	14	16	16	18	18	20	20	2
Pine Crest School Varsity	13	13	15	15	17	17	19	19	1	1	3
Pine Lake Prep Varsity	14	14	16	16	18	18	20	20	2	2	4
Ranney School Panthers	15	15	17	17	19	19	1	1	3	3	5
Severn School Admirals	16	16	18	18	20	20	2	2	4	4	6
Sharon High School Varsity	17	17	19	19	1	1	3	3	5	5	7
Southern Regional High School Rams	18	18	20	20	2	2	4	4	6	6	8
Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Wolfpack	19	19	1	1	3	3	5	5	7	7	9
Walter Payton College Preparatory High School Varsity	20	20	2	2	4	4	6	6	8	8	10
Wayzata High School Navy	1	1	3	3	5	5	7	7	9	9	11

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Antilles School	Sam Morrell '17 [1-11]	Caroline Teare '17 [1-8] Michael Derrickson '18 [9-11]
Hurricanes	Christopher Sharpless '19 [1-2, 4, 6, 9-10] Teddy Nicolosi '19 [3, 5, 7-8, 11]	Andy Williams '20 [1-2, 6-7, 11] Ryan Hunter '17 [3-5, 8-10]
Belmont Hill School	Jack Murphy '18	Ryan Goldstein '18
Varsity	Francis Selldorff '19 [1-7, 9-11] Jake Whitney '17 [8]	Jake Whitney '17 [1-6, 9-11] Ned Whelan '19 [7-8]
Broadneck High School	Phillip Schofield '17 [1-11]	Noelle Owen '19 [1-2] Nicole Ryan '18 [3-11]
Bruins	Katherine Bennett '18	John Morrison '17
Christchurch School	Boyd Bragg '19 [1-11]	Eric Demaro '18 [1-9] Alara Sahin '18 [10-11]
Seahorses	Benton Amthor '19 [1-8] Austin Freda '17 [9-11]	Alara Sahin '18 [1-8] Eric Demaro '18 [9-11]
Christian Brothers Academy	Joe Laforgia '17 [1-11]	John Cocozza '20 [1-2, 5-6] Justin Modin '19 [3-4, 7-11]
Colts	Chris Magno '17 [1-2, 5-6] Michael Ehnot '18 [3-4, 7-11]	Ryan Mullins '19 [1-2, 5-6]
Duxbury High School	Piers Klein '18 [1-11]	William Seigener '18 [1-4] Paige Hoffman '17 [5-6, 9-10] Griffin Lorimer '18 [7-8, 11]
Varsity	Nathan Ikeda '17 [1-7, 11] Philip Morse '17 [8-10]	Caroline Williams '19 [1-4, 8] Elizabeth Linsdell '20 [5-7, 9-10] Griffin Lorimer '18 [11]
Falmouth High School (ME)	Caleb Robinson '18 [1-11]	Grace Mooridian '17 [1-6, 9-11] Catherine Morrissette '20 [7-8]
Yachtsmen	Peter Morrissette '18 [1-11]	Sierra Farhman '18 [1-2, 7-8] Owen White '18 [3-4, 9-11] Johnny Wahlig '20 [5-6]
New Trier HS	Spencer Keenan '17	Matthew Trunsky '17
Trevian	Lolly Vasilion '18 [1-11]	Michael Rivkin '17 [1-9] Quinn Keenan '19 [10-11]
Norfolk Collegiate School	Daniel Vail '17 [1-11]	Sarah Smith '18 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10] Chapman Holt '20 [3-4, 7-8] Parker Purrington '19 [11]
Oaks	Ellie Maus '18 [1-11]	Matt Wright '19 [1-7] Hunter Kahler '17 [8-11]
North Kingstown High School	Marina Barzaghi '17 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10] Mikey O'Flaherty '17 [3-4, 7-8, 11]	Adeline Sutton '17 [1-2, 5-6] Ryan Soucy '18 [3-4] Caroline Bourgeois '18 [7-8] Will Andrews '17 [9-11]
Skippers	Aidan Naughton '18 [1-2, 7-8] Aili Moffett '19 [3-4, 9-10] Alex Dicenso '19 [5-6, 11]	Jaia Colongese '18 [1-2, 7-8] Will Andrews '17 [3-4] Rowan Westall '19 [5-6, 9-11]
Orono High School	Samuel Bartel '18 [1-11]	Erik Sundberg '17 [1-4, 7-10] Erich Pinske '18 [5-6, 11]
Scarlet	Rachel Bartel '20 [1-2, 8-11] Henry Jaffray '18 [3-7]	Helen Mcdonnell '17 [1-8] Henry Jaffray '18 [9-10] Erik Sundberg '17 [11]
Pine Crest School	Ethan Grove '17	Leah Schulman '18
Varsity	Noah Fischer '19	Michael Gabe '18
Pine Lake Prep	Garrett Mergenthaler '19	Jason Perryman '17
Varsity	Sammy Choufanni '17 [1-11]	Luke Volk '17 [1-6, 9-11] Robbie Mones '20 [7-8]
Ranney School	Luke Arnone '19 [1-11]	Cameron Giblin '19 [1-2] Matthew Hamelsky '19 [3-11]
Panthers	Cameron Giblin '19 [1-11]	Blake Epstein '19 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10] Catherine Vucetic '19 [3-4, 7-8, 11]
Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL	Logan O'Connor '17 [1-2, 5-6, 11] Ray Groble '17 [3-4, 7-10]	Eleanor Westerbeck '19 [1-2] Cristina Dombrowski '19 [3-11]
Wolfpack	Aisling Sullivan '18 [1-11]	Nate Casale '17 [1-4, 9-11] Eleanor Westerbeck '19 [5-8]
Severn School	Sam Bruce '20 [1-10] Aidan Morgan '17 [11]	Sophie Taczak '17 [1-10] Abby Tindall '19 [11]
Admirals	Jordan Bruce '20 [1-10] Peter Jensen '18 [11]	Blair Reilly '18 [1-10] Sam Reilly '19 [11]
Sharon High School	Jack Eberhardt '17 [1-8] Gautam Goel '17 [9-10] Aaron Fairchild '17 [11]	Lynn Fu '18 [1-8] Alissa Chen '18 [9-10] Merrick Tian '18 [11]
Varsity	Meghan Haviland '17	Colin Snow '18
Southern Regional High School	Emily Haig '17	Paul Reiff '17
Rams	Tom Green '19 [1-4, 7-11] Dana Haig '18 [5-6]	Emily Micciche '17 [1-4, 8-11] Tom Green '19 [5-6] Dana Haig '18 [7]
Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	James Wagner '17	Hanna Mularczyk '17
Varsity	Gloria Kevliciute '17 [1-11]	Caroline Bernet '17 [1-9] Peter Odom '17 [10-11]
Wayzata High School	Jackson Connell '17	Brianna Misk '17
Navy	Emma Aubuchon '19 [1-2, 5-8, 11] Wiley Hunt '19 [3-4, 9-10]	Anna Brew '17 [1-2, 5-8, 11]

Conditions — 11/12/2016 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 57% · Pressure 1026.5 hPa

Temperature

42°F

↑ 46°F ↓ 35°F

Feels like 32°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

10.3 kn

avg · max 12.9 kn

Gusts to 22.0 kn

From W (265°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover43% Sunshine9.7 hrs Humidity57% Pressure1026.5 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 13 kn · W 14 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In this breeze at Rochester Yacht Club: a favourites’ day (+0.07)

Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.

Fleet adjustment −0.08 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.01

Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.04 ± 0.09)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.07 means a rating gap counts about 6% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Rochester Yacht Club by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 1 labelled days at Rochester Yacht Club, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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