Christchurch School '17
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.03 (fleet 3.29) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 44–10 (81%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2017 | 3 | 27–4 | — |
| Fall 2016 | 1 | 9–2 | — |
| Spring 2015 | 1 | 8–4 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 4 graded regattas (42 matches) the record is 36–6 against 33.8 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+2.2). 2 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 7 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-05-27 | ISSA Team Race Championship (Baker Trophy) | skipper | 2.66 | 0.25 | 2–3 | 3.7 | −2.41 | 2.3 | 99% |
| 2017-04-22 | MASSA Spring Team Race Championship | skipper | 2.50 | 4.25 | 13–1 | 11.1 | +1.75 | 1.6 | 16% |
| 2017-04-01 | VISA NCS Team Race Regatta | skipper | 2.48 | 5.48 | 12–0 | 9.9 | ≥+3.00 | 3.2 | 8% |
| 2016-10-29 | MASSA Fall Team Race Championship | skipper | 2.25 | 2.05 | 9–2 | 9.2 | −0.20 | 0.0 | 75% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| VISA NSA Fleet Race Regatta | Skipper | A | 6 | 1.3 | 5.21 |
| VISA NCS Team Race Regatta | Skipper | TR | 11 | 91% | — |
| VISA Fleet Race Championship | Skipper | A | 4 | 3.5 | 1.72 |
| VISA Maury Fleet Race Regatta | Skipper | A | 4 | 2.0 | 3.04 |
| MASSA Spring Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 15 | 93% | — |
| MASSA Mallory Qualifier | Skipper | B | 6 | 5.2 | 2.02 |
| ISSA Team Race Championship (Baker Trophy) | Skipper | TR | 5 | 40% | — |
| ISSA Fleet Racing Championship (Mallory Trophy) | Skipper | B | 2 | 12.5 | -0.00 |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| VISA Poquoson Fleet Race Regatta | Skipper | A | 6 | 2.3 | 1.82 |
| VISA Fall Fleet Race Championship | Skipper | A | 4 | 2.8 | 3.22 |
| VISA NA Fleet Race Regatta | Skipper | A | 5 | 4.4 | 2.29 |
| MASSA Fall Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 12 | 83% | — |
| MASSA Fall Fleet Gold Championship | Skipper | A | 2 | 13.5 | -0.46 |
| Atlantic Coast Championship | Skipper | B | 3 | 7.0 | 1.43 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Austin Freda |  Norfolk Academy |
'16 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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