VISA Maury Fleet Race Regatta

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 1 9 9 18
2 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 2 8 10 18
3 Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints 20 10 30
4 York High School York High School Varsity 21 19 40
5 Phoebus High School Phoebus High School Phantoms 17 27 44
6 Hampton High School Hampton High School Crabbers 36 27 63
7 Maury High School Maury High School Commodores 45 21 66
8 Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Islanders 2 28 40 68
9 Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Warriors 1 31 38 69
10 Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Islanders 1 34 42 76
11 Grafton High School Grafton High School Varsity 46 36 82
12 Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Warriors 2 44 40 84
13 Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 32 56 88
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 2 2 3 2 1 8 Austin Freda '17
Sally Johnson '18
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 1 1 2 4 2 9 Benton Amthor '19
Thomas Walker '17
Phoebus High School Phoebus High School Phantoms 6 4 3 4 17 Blake Harrington '18
William Thornton '17
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints 4 5 8 3 20 Kaila Pfrang '17 [1-4]
Gustav Berner '17 [1-2]
Elise Coberly '17 [3-4]
York High School York High School Varsity 5 10 1 5 21 Zane Morris '18
Kylee Hockaday '17
Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Islanders 2 9 8 5 6 28 Catherine Gilmore '17
Gabriel Bugbee '18
Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Warriors 1 11 6 7 7 31 Sam Brady '19
Laura Rhodes '20
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 3 1 DSQ DSQ 32 Hunter Kahler '17
Sarah Smith '18
Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Islanders 1 8 12 6 8 34 Jack Mckenna '20
Joshua Green '18
Hampton High School Hampton High School Crabbers 10 7 9 10 36 Avery Mcnight '20
Grace Holloway '17
Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Warriors 2 7 9 DNS DNS 44 Henry Waddill '18
Will Olson '17
Maury High School Maury High School Commodores DNF 11 11 9 45 Jalen Rogers '19 [1-2]
Andrew Redfearn '19 [3-4]
Emily Palmer '18 [1-2]
Grafton High School Grafton High School Varsity 12 13 10 11 46 Haydon Gould '19
Jacqueline Lankford '18
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 1 3 4 1 1 9 Brendan Little '18
Anna Flynn '20
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 2 1 2 2 5 10 Nathan Smith '20 [1-3]
John Vail '20 [4]
John Vail '20 [1-3]
Jefferson Elkin '20 [4]
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints 4 1 3 2 10 Harrison Parker '18
Maddy Reynolds '21
York High School York High School Varsity 6 6 4 3 19 Daniel Hodges '18
Charlie Gibson '20
Maury High School Maury High School Commodores 2 5 7 7 21 Paul Trudell '22
Kayla Washington '17
Phoebus High School Phoebus High School Phantoms 5 8 5 9 27 Tyler Bevington '19
Ricky Cordner '19
Hampton High School Hampton High School Crabbers 9 3 9 6 27 Ryan Wright '17
Kaela Ehrlich '18
Grafton High School Grafton High School Varsity 11 9 8 8 36 Madeline Amthor '22
Elias Rooker '23
Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Warriors 1 7 7 DSQ 10 38 Cole Handly '19
Emily Butler '19
Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Warriors 2 8 DNS DNS 4 40 Henry Waddill '18
Will Olson '17
Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Islanders 2 12 10 6 12 40 Devon Bailey '18
Ashlyn Wise '21
Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Islanders 1 10 11 10 11 42 Emmaline Dicarlo '20
Nicholas Rote '17
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks DSQ DSQ DSQ DSQ 56 Sarah Smith '18
Hunter Kahler '17
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.060+0.06
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2017 (5 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 11133
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 22244
Grafton High SchoolGrafton High School Varsity3355
Hampton High SchoolHampton High School Crabbers4466
Kecoughtan High SchoolKecoughtan High School Warriors 16688
Kecoughtan High SchoolKecoughtan High School Warriors 25577
Maury High SchoolMaury High School Commodores7799
Nansemond-Suffolk AcademyNansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints881010
Norfolk Collegiate SchoolNorfolk Collegiate School Oaks991111
Phoebus High SchoolPhoebus High School Phantoms10101212
Poquoson High SchoolPoquoson High School Islanders 111111313
Poquoson High SchoolPoquoson High School Islanders 2121211
York High SchoolYork High School Varsity131322

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 12244
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 23355
Grafton High SchoolGrafton High School Varsity4466
Hampton High SchoolHampton High School Crabbers5577
Kecoughtan High SchoolKecoughtan High School Warriors 17799
Kecoughtan High SchoolKecoughtan High School Warriors 26688
Maury High SchoolMaury High School Commodores881010
Nansemond-Suffolk AcademyNansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints991111
Norfolk Collegiate SchoolNorfolk Collegiate School Oaks10101212
Phoebus High SchoolPhoebus High School Phantoms11111313
Poquoson High SchoolPoquoson High School Islanders 1121211
Poquoson High SchoolPoquoson High School Islanders 2131322
York High SchoolYork High School Varsity1133

Conditions — 03/11/2017 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 42%  ·  Pressure 1024.9 hPa

Temperature

40°F
↑ 46°F   ↓ 35°F
Feels like 32°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
7.3 kn
avg  ·  max 10.1 kn
Gusts to 21.0 kn
From NNW (332°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover31% Sunshine10.4 hrs Humidity42% Pressure1024.9 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: N 8 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Maury: a favourites’ day (+0.02)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.04 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.06
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.11 ± 0.15)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Maury by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 5 labelled days at Maury, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →