VISA Fleet Race Championship

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1 11 16 27
2 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 1 18 9 27
3 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 2 11 16 27
4 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 3 16 14 30
5 Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints 33 23 56
6 Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 2 30 30 60
7 York High School York High School Varsity 34 39 73
8 Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Warriors 1 47 49 96
9 Grafton High School Grafton High School Varsity 50 47 97
10 Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Islanders 40 59 99
11 Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Warriors 2 52 53 105
12 Maury High School Maury High School Commodores 1 60 45 105
13 Maury High School Maury High School Commodores 2 51 56 107
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1 1 1 1 6 2 11 Daniel Vail '17
Chris Robertson '19
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 2 3 4 2 1 1 11 Nathan Smith '20
Jefferson Elkin '20
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 3 5 2 3 2 4 16 Brendan Little '18
Anna Flynn '20
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 1 2 RDG 4 5 3 18 Austin Freda '17
Benton Amthor '19
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 2 4 7 5 7 7 30 Parker Purrington '19
Ray Domena '19
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints 6 5 7 10 5 33 Kaila Pfrang '17
Elise Coberly '17
York High School York High School Varsity 8 8 8 4 6 34 Zane Morris '18
Kylee Hockaday '17
Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Islanders 9 3 10 8 10 40 Jack Mckenna '20
Emmaline Dicarlo '20
Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Warriors 1 13 9 6 11 8 47 Cole Handly '19
Tyson Denton '21
Grafton High School Grafton High School Varsity 10 12 12 3 13 50 Zack George '19 [1-5]
Noah Navarrete '18 [1-2]
Zack George '19 [3-5]
Maury High School Maury High School Commodores 2 12 10 9 9 11 51 Andrew Redfearn '19
Sophia Bibbo '20
Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Warriors 2 7 11 13 12 9 52 Henry Waddill '18 [1-4]
Sam Brady '19 [5]
Morgan Handly '21 [1-4]
Laura Rhodes '20 [5]
Maury High School Maury High School Commodores 1 11 13 11 13 12 60 Tyler Cason '18 [1-2, 5]
Byron Armstrong '18 [3-4]
Samuel Harris '18 [1-2, 5]
Kayla Washington '17 [3-4]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 1 1 1 2 4 1 9 Boyd Bragg '19
Carson Rozell '19
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 3 2 2 3 5 2 14 John Vail '20
Samuel Christie '17
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 2 3 5 4 1 3 16 Marianna Guzman '19
Thomas Walker '17
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1 5 3 1 2 5 16 Ellie Maus '18 [1-5]
Hunter Kahler '17 [1-2]
Matt Wright '19 [3-5]
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints 4 4 8 3 4 23 Harrison Parker '18
Gustav Berner '17
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 2 7 6 5 6 6 30 Parker Purrington '19 [1-2]
Hunter Kahler '17 [3-4]
Sarah Smith '18 [5]
Matt Wright '19 [1-2]
Sarah Smith '18 [3-4]
Hunter Kahler '17 [5]
York High School York High School Varsity 10 9 6 7 7 39 Daniel Hodges '18
Charlie Gibson '20
Maury High School Maury High School Commodores 1 6 8 7 10 DNS 45 Carter Harris '18
Kate Weaver '18
Grafton High School Grafton High School Varsity 8 10 12 8 9 47 Haydon Gould '19
Jacqueline Lankford '18
Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Warriors 1 9 12 9 9 10 49 Sam Brady '19 [1-5]
Will Olson '17 [1-2]
Laura Rhodes '20 [3-5]
Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Warriors 2 12 7 10 12 12 53 Bryce Hoen '18
Parker Bunting '18
Maury High School Maury High School Commodores 2 11 11 13 13 8 56 Jalen Rogers '19 [1-5]
Emily Palmer '18 [1-2]
Jackson Walsh '20 [3-5]
Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Islanders 13 13 11 11 11 59 Nicholas Rote '17
Kalia Haupt '19
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.250+0.25
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2015 (9 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 111335
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 222446
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 333557
Grafton High SchoolGrafton High School Varsity44668
Kecoughtan High SchoolKecoughtan High School Warriors 155779
Kecoughtan High SchoolKecoughtan High School Warriors 2668810
Maury High SchoolMaury High School Commodores 1779911
Maury High SchoolMaury High School Commodores 288101012
Nansemond-Suffolk AcademyNansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints99111113
Norfolk Collegiate SchoolNorfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1101012121
Norfolk Collegiate SchoolNorfolk Collegiate School Oaks 2111113132
Poquoson High SchoolPoquoson High School Islanders1212113
York High SchoolYork High School Varsity1313224

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 122446
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 233557
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 344668
Grafton High SchoolGrafton High School Varsity55779
Kecoughtan High SchoolKecoughtan High School Warriors 1668810
Kecoughtan High SchoolKecoughtan High School Warriors 2779911
Maury High SchoolMaury High School Commodores 188101012
Maury High SchoolMaury High School Commodores 299111113
Nansemond-Suffolk AcademyNansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints101012121
Norfolk Collegiate SchoolNorfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1111113132
Norfolk Collegiate SchoolNorfolk Collegiate School Oaks 21212113
Poquoson High SchoolPoquoson High School Islanders1313224
York High SchoolYork High School Varsity11335
School / Team SkipperCrew
Christchurch School Christchurch School Austin Freda '17 Benton Amthor '19
Seahorses 1 Boyd Bragg '19 Carson Rozell '19
Christchurch School Christchurch School Nathan Smith '20 Jefferson Elkin '20
Seahorses 2 Marianna Guzman '19 Thomas Walker '17
Christchurch School Christchurch School Brendan Little '18 Anna Flynn '20
Seahorses 3 John Vail '20 Samuel Christie '17
Grafton High School Grafton High School Zack George '19 [1-5] Noah Navarrete '18 [1-2]
Zack George '19 [3-5]
Varsity Haydon Gould '19 Jacqueline Lankford '18
Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Cole Handly '19 Tyson Denton '21
Warriors 1 Sam Brady '19 [1-5] Will Olson '17 [1-2]
Laura Rhodes '20 [3-5]
Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Henry Waddill '18 [1-4]
Sam Brady '19 [5]
Morgan Handly '21 [1-4]
Laura Rhodes '20 [5]
Warriors 2 Bryce Hoen '18 Parker Bunting '18
Maury High School Maury High School Tyler Cason '18 [1-2, 5]
Byron Armstrong '18 [3-4]
Samuel Harris '18 [1-2, 5]
Kayla Washington '17 [3-4]
Commodores 1 Carter Harris '18 Kate Weaver '18
Maury High School Maury High School Andrew Redfearn '19 Sophia Bibbo '20
Commodores 2 Jalen Rogers '19 [1-5] Emily Palmer '18 [1-2]
Jackson Walsh '20 [3-5]
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Kaila Pfrang '17 Elise Coberly '17
Saints Harrison Parker '18 Gustav Berner '17
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Daniel Vail '17 Chris Robertson '19
Oaks 1 Ellie Maus '18 [1-5] Hunter Kahler '17 [1-2]
Matt Wright '19 [3-5]
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Parker Purrington '19 Ray Domena '19
Oaks 2 Parker Purrington '19 [1-2]
Hunter Kahler '17 [3-4]
Sarah Smith '18 [5]
Matt Wright '19 [1-2]
Sarah Smith '18 [3-4]
Hunter Kahler '17 [5]
Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Jack Mckenna '20 Emmaline Dicarlo '20
Islanders Nicholas Rote '17 Kalia Haupt '19
York High School York High School Zane Morris '18 Kylee Hockaday '17
Varsity Daniel Hodges '18 Charlie Gibson '20

Conditions — 05/06/2017 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle
Humidity 63%  ·  Pressure 997.8 hPa

Temperature

62°F
↑ 67°F   ↓ 56°F
Feels like 57°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
10.3 kn
avg  ·  max 14.2 kn
Gusts to 32.7 kn
From WSW (245°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover74% Sunshine8.7 hrs Humidity63% Pressure997.8 hPa Rain0.04 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 8 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Christchurch School: a favourites’ day (+0.03)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.01 (an ordinary fleet) · combined forecast +0.04
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.20 ± 0.13)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 3% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Christchurch School by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (25 labelled days at Christchurch School).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →