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VISA NSA Fleet Race Regatta

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 1 8 14 22
2 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 2 20 10 30
3 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 3 24 20 44
4 Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1 26 37 63
5 Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 2 44 22 66
6 York High School York High School Varsity 33 36 69
7 Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints 40 40 80
8 Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Islanders 53 52 105
9 Maury High School Maury High School Commodores 2 57 62 119
10 Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Warriors 1 72 52 124
11 Phoebus High School Phoebus High School Phantoms 41 84 125
12 Maury High School Maury High School Commodores 1 70 57 127
13 Grafton High School Grafton High School Varsity 58 76 134
14 Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Warriors 2 85 70 155
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 1 2 1 1 2 1 1 8 Austin Freda '17
Sally Johnson '18
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 2 1 4 4 1 7 3 20 Nathan Smith '20
Thomas Walker '17
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 3 4 2 3 5 5 5 24 John Vail '20
Anna Flynn '20
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1 3 8 2 6 3 4 26 Ellie Maus '18
Matt Wright '19
York High School York High School Varsity 8 3 10 4 6 2 33 Zane Morris '18
Kylee Hockaday '17
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints 5 6 11 10 2 6 40 Harrison Parker '18
Maddy Reynolds '21
Phoebus High School Phoebus High School Phantoms 7 5 8 9 4 8 41 Blake Harrington '18
William Thornton '17
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 2 6 9 5 8 9 7 44 Hunter Kahler '17 [1-6]
Ray Domena '19 [1-2, 5-6]
Chris Robertson '19 [3-4]
Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Islanders 11 10 6 3 12 11 53 Jack Mckenna '20
Devon Bailey '18
Maury High School Maury High School Commodores 2 10 7 9 7 11 13 57 Byron Armstrong '18
Kayla Washington '17
Grafton High School Grafton High School Varsity 9 11 7 13 8 10 58 Brian Fox '19 [1-6]
Noah Navarrete '18 [1-2]
Kai Vylet '19 [3-6]
Maury High School Maury High School Commodores 1 12 12 13 11 10 12 70 Tyler Cason '18
Samuel Harris '18
Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Warriors 1 13 13 12 12 13 9 72 Sam Brady '19
Laura Rhodes '20
Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Warriors 2 14 DNF 14 14 14 14 85 Tyson Denton '21
Ryan Nguyen '20
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 2 1 1 1 1 5 1 10 Marianna Guzman '19
Eric Demaro '18
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 1 3 2 2 2 1 4 14 Brendan Little '18
Jefferson Elkin '20
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 3 2 3 6 3 3 3 20 Zoe Harding '18
Larkin Rae '18
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 2 7 4 3 4 2 2 22 Sarah Smith '18
Chris Robertson '19
York High School York High School Varsity 4 5 7 7 8 5 36 Daniel Hodges '18
Charlie Gibson '20
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1 5 8 5 9 4 6 37 Parker Purrington '19
Ray Domena '19
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints 6 6 4 8 6 10 40 Kyle Pfrang '22
Gustav Berner '17
Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Warriors 1 8 9 10 5 9 11 52 Cole Handly '19 [1-6]
Grace Holloway '17 [1-2]
Mallory Soter '20 [3-6]
Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Islanders 11 11 8 6 7 9 52 Catherine Gilmore '17
Ashlyn Wise '21
Maury High School Maury High School Commodores 1 9 7 9 11 13 8 57 Connor Mccrillis '20 [1-2]
Jalen Rogers '19 [3-6]
Andrew Redfearn '19 [1-2]
Emily Palmer '18 [3-6]
Maury High School Maury High School Commodores 2 12 12 11 10 10 7 62 Carter Harris '18 [1-6]
Kate Weaver '18 [1-2]
Sophia Bibbo '20 [3-6]
Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Warriors 2 10 10 12 12 14 12 70 Bryce Hoen '18
Oliva Whitehouse '17
Grafton High School Grafton High School Varsity 13 13 13 13 11 13 76 Haydon Gould '19
Jacqueline Lankford '18
Phoebus High School Phoebus High School Phantoms 14 14 DNF DNS 12 14 84 Nick Winkle '20 [1-4]
Morgan Handly '21 [5-6]
Morgan Handly '21 [1-4]
Grace Holloway '17 [5-6]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.250+0.25
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2015 (9 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 1113355
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 2224466
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 3335577
Grafton High SchoolGrafton High School Varsity446688
Kecoughtan High SchoolKecoughtan High School Warriors 1557799
Kecoughtan High SchoolKecoughtan High School Warriors 266881010
Maury High SchoolMaury High School Commodores 177991111
Maury High SchoolMaury High School Commodores 28810101212
Nansemond-Suffolk AcademyNansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints9911111313
Norfolk Collegiate SchoolNorfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1101012121414
Norfolk Collegiate SchoolNorfolk Collegiate School Oaks 21111131311
Phoebus High SchoolPhoebus High School Phantoms1212141422
Poquoson High SchoolPoquoson High School Islanders13131133
York High SchoolYork High School Varsity14142244

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 1224466
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 2335577
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 3446688
Grafton High SchoolGrafton High School Varsity557799
Kecoughtan High SchoolKecoughtan High School Warriors 166881010
Kecoughtan High SchoolKecoughtan High School Warriors 277991111
Maury High SchoolMaury High School Commodores 18810101212
Maury High SchoolMaury High School Commodores 29911111313
Nansemond-Suffolk AcademyNansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints101012121414
Norfolk Collegiate SchoolNorfolk Collegiate School Oaks 11111131311
Norfolk Collegiate SchoolNorfolk Collegiate School Oaks 21212141422
Phoebus High SchoolPhoebus High School Phantoms13131133
Poquoson High SchoolPoquoson High School Islanders14142244
York High SchoolYork High School Varsity113355
School / Team SkipperCrew
Christchurch School Christchurch School Austin Freda '17 Sally Johnson '18
Seahorses 1 Brendan Little '18 Jefferson Elkin '20
Christchurch School Christchurch School Nathan Smith '20 Thomas Walker '17
Seahorses 2 Marianna Guzman '19 Eric Demaro '18
Christchurch School Christchurch School John Vail '20 Anna Flynn '20
Seahorses 3 Zoe Harding '18 Larkin Rae '18
Grafton High School Grafton High School Brian Fox '19 [1-6] Noah Navarrete '18 [1-2]
Kai Vylet '19 [3-6]
Varsity Haydon Gould '19 Jacqueline Lankford '18
Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Sam Brady '19 Laura Rhodes '20
Warriors 1 Cole Handly '19 [1-6] Grace Holloway '17 [1-2]
Mallory Soter '20 [3-6]
Kecoughtan High School Kecoughtan High School Tyson Denton '21 Ryan Nguyen '20
Warriors 2 Bryce Hoen '18 Oliva Whitehouse '17
Maury High School Maury High School Tyler Cason '18 Samuel Harris '18
Commodores 1 Connor Mccrillis '20 [1-2]
Jalen Rogers '19 [3-6]		 Andrew Redfearn '19 [1-2]
Emily Palmer '18 [3-6]
Maury High School Maury High School Byron Armstrong '18 Kayla Washington '17
Commodores 2 Carter Harris '18 [1-6] Kate Weaver '18 [1-2]
Sophia Bibbo '20 [3-6]
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Harrison Parker '18 Maddy Reynolds '21
Saints Kyle Pfrang '22 Gustav Berner '17
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Ellie Maus '18 Matt Wright '19
Oaks 1 Parker Purrington '19 Ray Domena '19
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Hunter Kahler '17 [1-6] Ray Domena '19 [1-2, 5-6]
Chris Robertson '19 [3-4]
Oaks 2 Sarah Smith '18 Chris Robertson '19
Phoebus High School Phoebus High School Blake Harrington '18 William Thornton '17
Phantoms Nick Winkle '20 [1-4]
Morgan Handly '21 [5-6]		 Morgan Handly '21 [1-4]
Grace Holloway '17 [5-6]
Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Jack Mckenna '20 Devon Bailey '18
Islanders Catherine Gilmore '17 Ashlyn Wise '21
York High School York High School Zane Morris '18 Kylee Hockaday '17
Varsity Daniel Hodges '18 Charlie Gibson '20

Conditions — 03/25/2017 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 53%  ·  Pressure 1023.0 hPa

Temperature

69°F
↑ 74°F   ↓ 56°F
Feels like 65°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
8.9 kn
avg  ·  max 10.3 kn
Gusts to 24.5 kn
From SW (233°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover96% Sunshine10.8 hrs Humidity53% Pressure1023.0 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 12 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Christchurch School: a typical day (−0.02)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment +0.00 (an ordinary fleet) · combined forecast −0.01
Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.31 ± 0.12)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Christchurch School by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (25 labelled days at Christchurch School).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →