VISA Poquoson Fleet Race Regatta

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 3 14 7 21
2 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 2 8 16 24
3 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 1 14 13 27
4 Catholic High School Catholic High School Crusaders 1 25 35 60
5 Catholic High School Catholic High School Crusaders 2 39 25 64
6 St. Christopher's School St. Christopher's School Saints 31 40 71
7 Hampton Roads Academy Hampton Roads Academy Navigators 43 40 83
8 Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Islanders 43 42 85
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 2 2 1 2 1 1 1 8 Benton Amthor '19
Sierra Lanier '18
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 3 1 3 1 3 3 3 14 Brendan Little '18
Alara Sahin '18
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 1 3 2 3 2 2 2 14 Austin Freda '17
Carson Rozell '19
Catholic High School Catholic High School Crusaders 1 4 4 4 5 4 4 25 Jake Kiggans '19 [1-6]
Maggie Mcdonald '19 [1-2]
Gustavo Morales '20 [3-4]
Charles Schoening '19 [5-6]
St. Christopher's School St. Christopher's School Saints 5 5 5 4 6 6 31 Harrison Clary '18 [1-6]
Camryn Morris '18 [1-4]
Jack Whitmore '18 [5-6]
Catholic High School Catholic High School Crusaders 2 6 6 8 7 7 5 39 Erynn Sorensen '17 [1-6]
Charles Schoening '19 [1-2]
Nathan Houser '17 [3-4]
Matt Lassalle '18 [5-6]
Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Islanders 7 7 6 8 8 7 43 Nicholas Rote '17
Gabriel Bugbee '18
Hampton Roads Academy Hampton Roads Academy Navigators 8 DNF 7 6 5 8 43 Connor Duggan '19
Hanna Mohsin '19
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 7 John Vail '20
Thomas Walker '17
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 1 1 3 2 3 2 2 13 Zoe Harding '18
Avery Davis '19
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 2 3 2 3 2 3 3 16 Marianna Guzman '19
Anna Flynn '20
Catholic High School Catholic High School Crusaders 2 4 4 4 4 4 5 25 Ignatius Liberto '17
Sebastian Martinez '17
Catholic High School Catholic High School Crusaders 1 5 6 5 5 5 DNS 35 Nick Segerblom '17 [1-6]
Matt Lassalle '18 [1-2]
Maggie Mcdonald '19 [3-4]
Nathan Houser '17 [5-6]
Hampton Roads Academy Hampton Roads Academy Navigators 7 5 7 8 6 7 40 Brandon Kim '19
Diaana Mohsin '19
St. Christopher's School St. Christopher's School Saints 8 8 6 6 8 4 40 Audrey Ladd '19 [1-4]
Reynolds Short '20 [5-6]
Emmy Jankowski '19 [1-4]
Kaavya Shetty '18 [5-6]
Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Islanders 6 7 DNF 7 7 6 42 Emmaline Dicarlo '20
Joshua Green '18
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.210+0.21
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2015 (9 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
Catholic High SchoolCatholic High School Crusaders 1113355
Catholic High SchoolCatholic High School Crusaders 2224466
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 1335577
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 2446688
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 3557711
Hampton Roads AcademyHampton Roads Academy Navigators668822
Poquoson High SchoolPoquoson High School Islanders771133
St. Christopher's SchoolSt. Christopher's School Saints882244

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B
Catholic High SchoolCatholic High School Crusaders 1224466
Catholic High SchoolCatholic High School Crusaders 2335577
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 1446688
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 2557711
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 3668822
Hampton Roads AcademyHampton Roads Academy Navigators771133
Poquoson High SchoolPoquoson High School Islanders882244
St. Christopher's SchoolSt. Christopher's School Saints113355
School / Team SkipperCrew
Catholic High School Catholic High School Jake Kiggans '19 [1-6] Maggie Mcdonald '19 [1-2]
Gustavo Morales '20 [3-4]
Charles Schoening '19 [5-6]
Crusaders 1 Nick Segerblom '17 [1-6] Matt Lassalle '18 [1-2]
Maggie Mcdonald '19 [3-4]
Nathan Houser '17 [5-6]
Catholic High School Catholic High School Erynn Sorensen '17 [1-6] Charles Schoening '19 [1-2]
Nathan Houser '17 [3-4]
Matt Lassalle '18 [5-6]
Crusaders 2 Ignatius Liberto '17 Sebastian Martinez '17
Christchurch School Christchurch School Austin Freda '17 Carson Rozell '19
Seahorses 1 Zoe Harding '18 Avery Davis '19
Christchurch School Christchurch School Benton Amthor '19 Sierra Lanier '18
Seahorses 2 Marianna Guzman '19 Anna Flynn '20
Christchurch School Christchurch School Brendan Little '18 Alara Sahin '18
Seahorses 3 John Vail '20 Thomas Walker '17
Hampton Roads Academy Hampton Roads Academy Connor Duggan '19 Hanna Mohsin '19
Navigators Brandon Kim '19 Diaana Mohsin '19
Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Nicholas Rote '17 Gabriel Bugbee '18
Islanders Emmaline Dicarlo '20 Joshua Green '18
St. Christopher's School St. Christopher's School Harrison Clary '18 [1-6] Camryn Morris '18 [1-4]
Jack Whitmore '18 [5-6]
Saints Audrey Ladd '19 [1-4]
Reynolds Short '20 [5-6]
Emmy Jankowski '19 [1-4]
Kaavya Shetty '18 [5-6]

Conditions — 09/17/2016 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Mainly clear
Humidity 74%  ·  Pressure 1021.8 hPa

Temperature

76°F
↑ 78°F   ↓ 71°F
Feels like 79°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.7 kn
avg  ·  max 10.2 kn
Gusts to 18.3 kn
From ESE (117°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover22% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity74% Pressure1021.8 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SE 8 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Christchurch School: a typical day (+0.02)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment +0.15 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.17
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.32 ± 0.21)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Christchurch School by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (25 labelled days at Christchurch School).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →