| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Christchurch School | Seahorses 2 | 10–1 |
| 2 |  |
Norfolk Collegiate School | Oaks | 5–6 |
| 3 | |
Christchurch School | Seahorses 1 | 10–1 |
| 4 |  |
York High School | Varsity | 4–7 |
| 5 |  |
Maury High School | Commodores 1 | 5–6 |
| 6 |  |
Kecoughtan High School | Warriors | 5–6 |
| 7 |  |
Grafton High School | Varsity | 4–5 |
| 8 | |
Maury High School | Commodores 2 | 2–9 |
| 9 |  |
Norfolk Academy | Bulldogs | 4–2 |
| 10 |  |
Phoebus High School | Phantoms | 0–6 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 2,762 team race matches sailed before 2017-04-01, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 20 of 23 matches (87%) with a log-loss of 0.318 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.36 ± 0.49: a typical event, more orderly than 66% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Christchurch School Seahorses 1 | 8.38 | 11.38 | 12–0 | 9.9 | ≥+3.00 | 3.2 | 8% |
| 6 | Kecoughtan High School Warriors | 1.28 | 1.80 | 2–5 | 1.6 | +0.52 | 0.1 | 51% |
| 5 | Maury High School Commodores 1 | 1.70 | 1.48 | 2–5 | 2.2 | −0.22 | 0.0 | 74% |
| 4 | York High School Varsity | 3.48 | 2.65 | 3–5 | 3.6 | −0.83 | 0.3 | 89% |
| 2 | Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks | 6.79 | 5.18 | 4–8 | 5.8 | −1.60 | 1.6 | 97% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Freda | Christchurch School | 2.48 | 5.48 | 12–0 | 9.9 | ≥+3.00 | 3.2 | 8% |
| Cole Handly | Kecoughtan High School | 1.10 | 1.62 | 2–5 | 1.6 | +0.52 | 0.1 | 51% |
| Sam Brady | Kecoughtan High School | 0.81 | 1.33 | 2–5 | 1.6 | +0.52 | 0.1 | 51% |
| Byron Armstrong | Maury High School | 0.67 | 0.45 | 2–5 | 2.2 | −0.22 | 0.0 | 74% |
| Tyler Cason | Maury High School | 0.47 | 0.25 | 2–5 | 2.2 | −0.22 | 0.0 | 74% |
| Zane Morris | York High School | 1.53 | 0.70 | 3–5 | 3.6 | −0.83 | 0.3 | 89% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Commodores 1 | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Varsity | 2-3-6 |
| 2 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Warriors | 4-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Oaks | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Commodores 1 | 3-4-6 |
| 4 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Oaks | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Warriors | 2-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Commodores 1 | 4-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Varsity | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Warriors | 1-4-6 |
| 8 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Oaks | 2-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Warriors | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Commodores 1 | 2-4-5 |
| 10 | |
Oaks | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Commodores 2 | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 2-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Seahorses 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 4-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Commodores 2 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Phantoms | 3-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Varsity | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 3-4-5 |
| 15 | |
Seahorses 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Phantoms | 4-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Bulldogs | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Commodores 2 | 1-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Seahorses 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Bulldogs | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Phantoms | 1-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Seahorses 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Commodores 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 20 | |
Varsity | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Phantoms | 1-4-6 |
| 50 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Oaks | 4-5-6 |
| 34 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Oaks | 3-4-6 |
| 35 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-6 DNS | def. | |
Oaks | 3-4-5 DNS |
| 36 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Oaks | 4-5-6 |
| 37 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Oaks | 2-4-5 |
| 51 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Oaks | 4-5-6 |
| 21 | |
Varsity | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Commodores 1 | 3-5-6 |
| 22 | |
Seahorses 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Warriors | 4-5-6 |
| 23 | |
Commodores 1 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Commodores 2 | 3-4-5 |
| 24 | |
Varsity | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Warriors | 3-5-6 |
| 25 | |
Seahorses 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Commodores 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 26 | |
Warriors | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Commodores 1 | 2-4-6 |
| 27 | |
Seahorses 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 28 | |
Warriors | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Commodores 2 | 2-4-6 |
| 29 | |
Seahorses 2 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Commodores 1 | 3-5-6 |
| 30 | |
Varsity | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Commodores 2 | 3-4-6 |
| 31 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 32 | |
Varsity | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Phantoms | 1-5-6 |
| 33 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Phantoms | 4-5-6 |
| 38 | |
Commodores 1 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Warriors | 3-4-5 |
| 39 | |
Varsity | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Commodores 2 | 2-3-6 |
| 40 | |
Oaks | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Seahorses 2 | 2-5-6 |
| 41 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 42 | |
Warriors | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Commodores 2 | 3-4-6 |
| 43 | |
Commodores 1 | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Varsity | 2-3-6 |
| 44 | |
Oaks | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-5 |
| 45 | |
Seahorses 2 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Seahorses 1 | 3-4-5 |
| 46 | |
Commodores 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Commodores 2 | 3-4-6 |
| 47 | |
Warriors | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 48 | |
Seahorses 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 49 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Oaks | 4-5-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Norfolk Collegiate School | Oaks | Daniel Vail '17 Ellie Maus '18 Hunter Kahler '17 Parker Purrington '19 Sarah Smith '18 |
Ray Domena '19 Matt Wright '19 Hunter Kahler '17 Chris Robertson '19 Daniel Vail '17 |
|
Christchurch School | Seahorses 1 | Austin Freda '17 Benton Amthor '19 Boyd Bragg '19 |
Eric Demaro '18 Sally Johnson '18 Thomas Walker '17 |
|
York High School | Varsity | Daniel Hodges '18 Kylee Hockaday '17 Zane Morris '18 |
Charlie Gibson '20 Ben Clarke '16 |
|
Maury High School | Commodores 1 | Byron Armstrong '18 Charlie Britt '20 Tyler Cason '18 |
Emily Palmer '18 Sophia Bibbo '20 Samuel Harris '18 |
|
Kecoughtan High School | Warriors | Bryce Hoen '18 Cole Handly '19 Sam Brady '19 |
Oliva Whitehouse '17 Grace Holloway '17 Ryan Nguyen '20 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 5% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
