VISA Fall Fleet Race Championship

HostNYCC
Date11/05/2016
TypeLeague Championship
BoatCFJ
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Norfolk Collegiate School	Oaks 1	7	8	15
2	Christchurch School	Seahorses 1	11	5	16
3	Norfolk Collegiate School	Oaks 2	30	20	50
4	Nansemond-Suffolk Academy	Saints 1	21	39	60
5	Hampton Roads Academy	Navigators 1	16	58	74
6	Poquoson High School	Islanders 1	43	31	74
7	Norfolk Collegiate School	Oaks 3	47	29	76
8	York High School	Varsity	50	28	78
9	Norfolk Academy	Bulldogs 1	45	36	81
10	Christchurch School	Seahorses 2	42	41	83
11	Norfolk Academy	Bulldogs 2	41	43	84
12	Maury High School	Commodores 1	55	48	103
13	Kecoughtan High School	Warriors 1	71	36	107
14	Maury High School	Commodores 2	71	43	114
15	Grafton High School	Varsity	48	71	119
16	Phoebus High School	Phantoms	60	60	120
17	Hampton Roads Academy	Navigators 2	55	75	130
18	Nansemond-Suffolk Academy	Saints 2	65	70	135
19	Walsingham Academy	Trojans 1	61	81	142
20	Catholic High School	Crusaders 1	65	91	156
21	Catholic High School	Crusaders 2	77	87	164
22	Hampton High School	Crabbers	90	76	166
23	Kecoughtan High School	Warriors 2	83	84	167
24	St. Christopher's School	Saints	79	93	172
25	Poquoson High School	Islanders 2	104	70	174
26	Walsingham Academy	Trojans 2	92	86	178
27	St. Catherine's School	Saints	99	105	204

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	TOT	Sailors
Norfolk Collegiate School	Oaks 1	1	3	1	2	7	Daniel Vail '17 Chapman Holt '20
Christchurch School	Seahorses 1	2	1	2	6	11	Austin Freda '17 Sally Johnson '18
Hampton Roads Academy	Navigators 1	3	2	3	8	16	Henry Eley '18 Brandon Kim '19
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy	Saints 1	7	5	4	5	21	Kaila Pfrang '17 Emily Argust '20
Norfolk Collegiate School	Oaks 2	4	8	7	11	30	Hunter Kahler '17 Jenks Britt '20
Norfolk Academy	Bulldogs 2	13	6	19	3	41	Jack Kilduff '18 Carter Furr '17
Christchurch School	Seahorses 2	5	4	5	DSQ	42	Marianna Guzman '19 Carson Rozell '19
Poquoson High School	Islanders 1	11	17	11	4	43	Wilson Hatchett '17 Jordan Hillis '17
Norfolk Academy	Bulldogs 1	17	10	8	10	45	Jack Whitmore '19 Carter Furr '17
Norfolk Collegiate School	Oaks 3	6	7	6	OCS	47	Sarah Smith '18 Jon Krueger '20
Grafton High School	Varsity	12	20	9	7	48	Haydon Gould '19 Madeleine Etheridge '19
York High School	Varsity	16	9	10	15	50	Zane Morris '18 Kylee Hockaday '17
Hampton Roads Academy	Navigators 2	8	14	15	18	55	Henry Waddill '18 Nathan Hoege '19
Maury High School	Commodores 1	10	DNS	16	1	55	Byron Armstrong '18 [1-2] Connor Mccrillis '20 [3-4] Kayla Washington '17 [1-2] Caleb Mccrillis '21 [3-4]
Phoebus High School	Phantoms	9	11	12	OCS	60	Blake Harrington '18 Regan Yacobi '19
Walsingham Academy	Trojans 1	15	18	14	14	61	Morgan Kelly '17 Colin Wilson '18
Catholic High School	Crusaders 1	18	15	23	9	65	Jake Kiggans '19 [1-4] Charles Schoening '19 [1-2] Maggie Mcdonald '19 [3-4]
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy	Saints 2	19	13	17	16	65	Hailey Gilman '17 Maddy Reynolds '21
Maury High School	Commodores 2	14	19	25	13	71	Robert Chase '22 [1-4] Will Moore '20 [1-2] Jackson Walsh '20 [3-4]
Kecoughtan High School	Warriors 1	20	12	18	21	71	Sam Brady '19 Grace Joyner '19
Catholic High School	Crusaders 2	21	23	21	12	77	Nick Segerblom '17 [1-4] Maggie Mcdonald '19 [1-2] Sebastian Martinez '17 [3-4]
St. Christopher's School	Saints	24	16	20	19	79	Harrison Clary '18 Reynolds Short '20
Kecoughtan High School	Warriors 2	25	OCS	13	17	83	Bryce Hoen '18 Oliva Whitehouse '17
Hampton High School	Crabbers	23	22	22	23	90	Avery Mcnight '20 [1-4] Mallory Soter '20 [1-2] Grace Holloway '17 [3-4]
Walsingham Academy	Trojans 2	22	21	27	22	92	Stanton Camp '18 Katherine Anna Hamner '22
St. Catherine's School	Saints	27	OCS	24	20	99	Audrey Ladd '19 Emmy Jankowski '19
Poquoson High School	Islanders 2	26	OCS	26	24	104	Emmaline Dicarlo '20 [1-4] Nicholas Rote '17 [1-2] Joshua Green '18 [3-4]

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	TOT	Sailors
Christchurch School	Seahorses 1	2	1	1	1	5	Nathan Smith '20 Eric Demaro '18
Norfolk Collegiate School	Oaks 1	1	2	2	3	8	Ellie Maus '18 Matt Wright '19
Norfolk Collegiate School	Oaks 2	5	7	6	2	20	Parker Purrington '19 Clare Harbin '19
York High School	Varsity	8	10	4	6	28	Daniel Hodges '18 Charlie Gibson '20
Norfolk Collegiate School	Oaks 3	4	8	5	12	29	Alex Holt '17 Nick Selig '17
Poquoson High School	Islanders 1	10	13	3	5	31	Jack Mckenna '20 Devon Bailey '18
Norfolk Academy	Bulldogs 1	3	15	10	8	36	Lawson Montgomery '18 Mihir Damle '19
Kecoughtan High School	Warriors 1	9	9	11	7	36	Cole Handly '19 Emily Butler '19
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy	Saints 1	6	3	12	18	39	Harrison Parker '18 T. J. Argust '18
Christchurch School	Seahorses 2	14	6	8	13	41	Galt Oliver '18 Anna Flynn '20
Norfolk Academy	Bulldogs 2	11	16	7	9	43	Michael Hostutler '20 Gordon Kitchener '17
Maury High School	Commodores 2	20	4	15	4	43	Paul Trudell '22 [1-2] Tyler Cason '18 [3-4] Jalen Rogers '19 [1-2] Clare Ruedisueli '17 [3-4]
Maury High School	Commodores 1	7	12	14	15	48	Charlie Britt '20 Sophia Bibbo '20
Hampton Roads Academy	Navigators 1	13	5	24	16	58	Alex Kitay '19 Abby Hellman '18
Phoebus High School	Phantoms	15	14	9	22	60	Gavin Smith '21 Ricky Cordner '19
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy	Saints 2	12	11	23	24	70	Bobby Levin '18 Hunter Sznoluch '19
Poquoson High School	Islanders 2	19	24	17	10	70	Charlotte Patterson '20 Audrey Merritt '20
Grafton High School	Varsity	16	22	22	11	71	Haydon Gould '19 Jacqueline Lankford '18
Hampton Roads Academy	Navigators 2	26	19	16	14	75	Connor Duggan '19 [1-2] Jared Cronin '17 [3-4] Caden Sutton '21 [1-2] Diaana Mohsin '19 [3-4]
Hampton High School	Crabbers	18	17	13	OCS	76	Ryan Wright '17 Kaela Ehrlich '18
Walsingham Academy	Trojans 1	22	20	18	21	81	Burke Lawlor '17 Max Wilcox '18
Kecoughtan High School	Warriors 2	21	18	OCS	17	84	Tyson Denton '21 [1-4] Laura Rhodes '20 [1-2] Ryan Nguyen '20 [3-4]
Walsingham Academy	Trojans 2	17	25	19	25	86	Carson Cooper '18 David Pellei '18
Catholic High School	Crusaders 2	25	23	20	19	87	Erynn Sorensen '17 [1-4] Sebastian Martinez '17 [1-2] Charles Schoening '19 [3-4]
Catholic High School	Crusaders 1	23	27	21	20	91	Ignatius Liberto '17 [1-4] Matt Beauchamp '17 [1-2] Nathan Houser '17 [3-4]
St. Christopher's School	Saints	24	21	25	23	93	Jack Whitmore '18 Alex Davis '18
St. Catherine's School	Saints	27	26	26	26	105	Kaavya Shetty '18 Camryn Morris '18

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.080+0.08

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2015 (3 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A
Catholic High School Crusaders 1	1	1	3	3
Catholic High School Crusaders 2	17	17	101	101
Christchurch School Seahorses 1	2	2	4	4
Christchurch School Seahorses 2	18	18	102	102
Grafton High School Varsity	3	3	5	5
Hampton High School Crabbers	4	4	6	6
Hampton Roads Academy Navigators 1	5	5	7	7
Hampton Roads Academy Navigators 2	101	101	103	103
Kecoughtan High School Warriors 1	6	6	8	8
Kecoughtan High School Warriors 2	102	102	104	104
Maury High School Commodores 1	7	7	9	9
Maury High School Commodores 2	103	103	105	105
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints 1	8	8	10	10
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints 2	104	104	106	106
Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 1	9	9	11	11
Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 2	105	105	107	107
Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1	10	10	12	12
Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 2	106	106	108	108
Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 3	107	107	109	109
Phoebus High School Phantoms	11	11	13	13
Poquoson High School Islanders 1	12	12	14	14
Poquoson High School Islanders 2	108	108	1	1
St. Catherine's School Saints	13	13	15	15
St. Christopher's School Saints	14	14	16	16
Walsingham Academy Trojans 1	15	15	17	17
Walsingham Academy Trojans 2	109	109	2	2
York High School Varsity	16	16	18	18

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B
Catholic High School Crusaders 1	2	2	4	4
Catholic High School Crusaders 2	18	18	102	102
Christchurch School Seahorses 1	3	3	5	5
Christchurch School Seahorses 2	101	101	103	103
Grafton High School Varsity	4	4	6	6
Hampton High School Crabbers	5	5	7	7
Hampton Roads Academy Navigators 1	6	6	8	8
Hampton Roads Academy Navigators 2	102	102	104	104
Kecoughtan High School Warriors 1	7	7	9	9
Kecoughtan High School Warriors 2	103	103	105	105
Maury High School Commodores 1	8	8	10	10
Maury High School Commodores 2	104	104	106	106
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints 1	9	9	11	11
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints 2	105	105	107	107
Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 1	10	10	12	12
Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 2	106	106	108	108
Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1	11	11	13	13
Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 2	107	107	109	109
Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 3	108	108	1	1
Phoebus High School Phantoms	12	12	14	14
Poquoson High School Islanders 1	13	13	15	15
Poquoson High School Islanders 2	109	109	2	2
St. Catherine's School Saints	14	14	16	16
St. Christopher's School Saints	15	15	17	17
Walsingham Academy Trojans 1	16	16	18	18
Walsingham Academy Trojans 2	1	1	3	3
York High School Varsity	17	17	101	101

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Catholic High School	Jake Kiggans '19 [1-4]	Charles Schoening '19 [1-2] Maggie Mcdonald '19 [3-4]
Crusaders 1	Ignatius Liberto '17 [1-4]	Matt Beauchamp '17 [1-2] Nathan Houser '17 [3-4]
Catholic High School	Nick Segerblom '17 [1-4]	Maggie Mcdonald '19 [1-2] Sebastian Martinez '17 [3-4]
Crusaders 2	Erynn Sorensen '17 [1-4]	Sebastian Martinez '17 [1-2] Charles Schoening '19 [3-4]
Christchurch School	Austin Freda '17	Sally Johnson '18
Seahorses 1	Nathan Smith '20	Eric Demaro '18
Christchurch School	Marianna Guzman '19	Carson Rozell '19
Seahorses 2	Galt Oliver '18	Anna Flynn '20
Grafton High School	Haydon Gould '19	Madeleine Etheridge '19
Varsity	Haydon Gould '19	Jacqueline Lankford '18
Hampton High School	Avery Mcnight '20 [1-4]	Mallory Soter '20 [1-2] Grace Holloway '17 [3-4]
Crabbers	Ryan Wright '17	Kaela Ehrlich '18
Hampton Roads Academy	Henry Eley '18	Brandon Kim '19
Navigators 1	Alex Kitay '19	Abby Hellman '18
Hampton Roads Academy	Henry Waddill '18	Nathan Hoege '19
Navigators 2	Connor Duggan '19 [1-2] Jared Cronin '17 [3-4]	Caden Sutton '21 [1-2] Diaana Mohsin '19 [3-4]
Kecoughtan High School	Sam Brady '19	Grace Joyner '19
Warriors 1	Cole Handly '19	Emily Butler '19
Kecoughtan High School	Bryce Hoen '18	Oliva Whitehouse '17
Warriors 2	Tyson Denton '21 [1-4]	Laura Rhodes '20 [1-2] Ryan Nguyen '20 [3-4]
Maury High School	Byron Armstrong '18 [1-2] Connor Mccrillis '20 [3-4]	Kayla Washington '17 [1-2] Caleb Mccrillis '21 [3-4]
Commodores 1	Charlie Britt '20	Sophia Bibbo '20
Maury High School	Robert Chase '22 [1-4]	Will Moore '20 [1-2] Jackson Walsh '20 [3-4]
Commodores 2	Paul Trudell '22 [1-2] Tyler Cason '18 [3-4]	Jalen Rogers '19 [1-2] Clare Ruedisueli '17 [3-4]
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy	Kaila Pfrang '17	Emily Argust '20
Saints 1	Harrison Parker '18	T. J. Argust '18
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy	Hailey Gilman '17	Maddy Reynolds '21
Saints 2	Bobby Levin '18	Hunter Sznoluch '19
Norfolk Academy	Jack Whitmore '19	Carter Furr '17
Bulldogs 1	Lawson Montgomery '18	Mihir Damle '19
Norfolk Academy	Jack Kilduff '18	Carter Furr '17
Bulldogs 2	Michael Hostutler '20	Gordon Kitchener '17
Norfolk Collegiate School	Daniel Vail '17	Chapman Holt '20
Oaks 1	Ellie Maus '18	Matt Wright '19
Norfolk Collegiate School	Hunter Kahler '17	Jenks Britt '20
Oaks 2	Parker Purrington '19	Clare Harbin '19
Norfolk Collegiate School	Sarah Smith '18	Jon Krueger '20
Oaks 3	Alex Holt '17	Nick Selig '17
Phoebus High School	Blake Harrington '18	Regan Yacobi '19
Phantoms	Gavin Smith '21	Ricky Cordner '19
Poquoson High School	Wilson Hatchett '17	Jordan Hillis '17
Islanders 1	Jack Mckenna '20	Devon Bailey '18
Poquoson High School	Emmaline Dicarlo '20 [1-4]	Nicholas Rote '17 [1-2] Joshua Green '18 [3-4]
Islanders 2	Charlotte Patterson '20	Audrey Merritt '20
St. Catherine's School	Audrey Ladd '19	Emmy Jankowski '19
Saints	Kaavya Shetty '18	Camryn Morris '18
St. Christopher's School	Harrison Clary '18	Reynolds Short '20
Saints	Jack Whitmore '18	Alex Davis '18
Walsingham Academy	Morgan Kelly '17	Colin Wilson '18
Trojans 1	Burke Lawlor '17	Max Wilcox '18
Walsingham Academy	Stanton Camp '18	Katherine Anna Hamner '22
Trojans 2	Carson Cooper '18	David Pellei '18
York High School	Zane Morris '18	Kylee Hockaday '17
Varsity	Daniel Hodges '18	Charlie Gibson '20

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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VISA Fall Fleet Race Championship

Division A

Division B

From the notes