St. John the Baptist '24
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.08 (fleet 0.13) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 1–7 (12%) as crew 0–8 (0%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2024 | 1 | 1–7 | — |
| Spring 2023 | 1 | — | 0–8 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (16 matches) the record is 1–15 against 2.2 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.2). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 3 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-14 | NYISA-SE Team Race Championship Spring 2024 | skipper | 0.10 | 0.66 | 1–7 | 0.7 | +0.56 | 0.1 | 53% |
| 2023-04-22 | NYISA-SE Team Race Championship | crew | -0.07 | -3.07 | 0–8 | 1.5 | ≤−3.00 | 2.4 | >99% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| NYISA-SE Team Race Championship Spring 2024 | Skipper | TR | 8 | 12% | — |
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| NYISA-SE Team Race Championship | Crew | TR | 8 | 0% | — |
| NYISA-SE ALL GIRLS CHAMPIONSHIP | Skipper | A | 3 | 6.3 | 0.16 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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