Rye Country Day School '25
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.01 (fleet 0.03) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 2–10 (17%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2025 | 1 | 0–4 | — |
| Spring 2023 | 1 | 2–6 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (12 matches) the record is 2–10 against 2.0 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+0.0). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-12 | NYISA-SE Team Race League Qualifiers | skipper | 0.30 | -2.70 | 0–4 | 0.5 | ≤−3.00 | 0.7 | >99% |
| 2023-04-22 | NYISA-SE Team Race Championship | skipper | 0.06 | 0.70 | 2–6 | 1.5 | +0.63 | 0.2 | 47% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| NYISA-SE Team Race League Qualifiers | Skipper | TR | 6 | 0% | — |
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| NYISA-SE Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 8 | 25% | — |
| NYISA-SE SUNY Maritime Invitational | Skipper | B | 2 | 6.0 | 1.17 |
| NYISA-SE Spring League Champs 2023 | Skipper | B | 2 | 2.5 | 2.25 |
| MASSA Silver Fleet Championship spring 2023 | Skipper | B | 5 | 10.4 | -0.62 |
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| NYISA-SE League Fleet Race Championship | Skipper | B | 6 | 5.5 | -0.82 |
| NYISA-SE 2022 SUNY Invitational | Crew | A | 4 | 7.2 | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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