| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Rye High School | Garnets | 5–1 |
| 2 |  |
The Stony Brook School | Bears | 4–2 |
| 3 |  |
Mamaroneck High School | Tigers | 3–3 |
| 4 |  |
Rye Country Day School | Wildcats | 0–6 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 11,963 team race matches sailed before 2025-04-12, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 10 of 12 matches (83%) with a log-loss of 0.393 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.35 ± 0.64: a typical event, more orderly than 65% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rye High School Garnets | 2 | 4.85 school +0.28 | Kai Mcculloch / Mark Lieshaj 1.31 Hugo Sacristan / Haley Kloepfer 1.45 Melanie Lahrkamp / Jenna Kloepfer 1.70 | 68% | 5–1 (83%) | +0.9 |
| 2 | The Stony Brook School Bears | 1 | 4.97 school −0.27 | Arancha Rivero-Ansed / Gisele Brandao 1.75 Emily Gaillard / Jp Panebianco 1.58 Carlos Gonzalez / Joshua Henson 1.81 | 71% | 4–2 (67%) | −0.3 |
| 3 | Mamaroneck High School Tigers | 3 | 3.89 school +0.16 | Ellie Millar / Max Lazarus Jonathan Wittick / Olivia Gray 1.37 2–2 Hadley Hall / Graham Welsh 1–3 Hadley Hall / Logan Solsby 2–0 Mason Colgan / Logan Solsby 0.88 1–1 | 48% | 3–3 (50%) | +0.1 |
| 4 | Rye Country Day School Wildcats | 4 | 2.16 school −0.20 | Zack Wirth / Henry Hart 0.92 Charlotte Crowley / Kyle Sisitsky 0–4 Hayden Hart / Sara Komaroff 0.30 0–4 Connor Rusch / Sara Komaroff 1.05 0–2 Charlotte Crowley / Frank Zingg 0–2 | 13% | 0–6 (0%) | −0.8 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rye High School | 4.85 | 6.08 | 5–1 | 4.1 | +1.23 | 0.6 | 36% |
| 3 | Mamaroneck High School | 3.89 | 4.03 | 3–3 | 2.9 | +0.14 | 0.0 | 63% |
| 2 | The Stony Brook School | 4.97 | 4.67 | 4–2 | 4.3 | −0.30 | 0.0 | 78% |
| 4 | Rye Country Day School | 2.16 | -0.84 | 0–6 | 0.8 | ≤−3.00 | 1.1 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kai Mcculloch | Rye High School | 1.31 | 2.55 | 5–1 | 4.1 | +1.23 | 0.6 | 36% |
| Hugo Sacristan | Rye High School | 1.45 | 2.68 | 5–1 | 4.1 | +1.23 | 0.6 | 36% |
| Melanie Lahrkamp | Rye High School | 1.70 | 2.93 | 5–1 | 4.1 | +1.23 | 0.6 | 36% |
| Ellie Millar | Mamaroneck High School | 1.30 | 1.45 | 3–3 | 2.9 | +0.14 | 0.0 | 63% |
| Hadley Hall | Mamaroneck High School | 1.07 | 1.22 | 3–3 | 2.9 | +0.14 | 0.0 | 63% |
| Arancha Rivero-Ansed | The Stony Brook School | 1.75 | 1.45 | 4–2 | 4.3 | −0.30 | 0.0 | 78% |
| Carlos Gonzalez | The Stony Brook School | 1.81 | 1.51 | 4–2 | 4.3 | −0.30 | 0.0 | 78% |
| Charlotte Crowley | Rye Country Day School | 0.74 | -2.26 | 0–6 | 0.8 | ≤−3.00 | 1.1 | >99% |
| Zack Wirth | Rye Country Day School | 0.92 | -2.08 | 0–6 | 0.8 | ≤−3.00 | 1.1 | >99% |
| Hayden Hart | Rye Country Day School | 0.30 | -2.70 | 0–4 | 0.5 | ≤−3.00 | 0.7 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Tigers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Wildcats | 3-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Bears | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Garnets | 2-4-5 |
| 3 | |
Bears | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Tigers | 3-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Garnets | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Wildcats | 2-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Garnets | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Tigers | 2-3-6 |
| 6 | |
Bears | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Wildcats | 3-4-5 |
| 7 | |
Tigers | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Bears | 2-3-6 |
| 8 | |
Garnets | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Wildcats | 3-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Garnets | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Tigers | 3-4-5 |
| 10 | |
Bears | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Wildcats | 3-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Tigers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Wildcats | 3-4-6 |
| 12 | |
Garnets | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bears | 3-4-5 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Rye High School | Garnets | Hugo Sacristan '26 Kai Mcculloch '27 Melanie Lahrkamp '27 |
Haley Kloepfer '25 Mark Lieshaj '26 Jenna Kloepfer '28 |
|
The Stony Brook School | Bears | Arancha Rivero-Ansed '27 Carlos Gonzalez '28 Emily Gaillard '25 |
Gisele Brandao '27 Joshua Henson '25 Jp Panebianco '27 |
|
Mamaroneck High School | Tigers | Ellie Millar '28 Hadley Hall '28 Jonathan Wittick '25 Mason Colgan '27 |
Max Lazarus '25 Logan Solsby '26 Graham Welsh '25 Olivia Gray '27 |
|
Rye Country Day School | Wildcats | Charlotte Crowley '28 Connor Rusch '25 Hayden Hart '25 Zack Wirth '27 |
Kyle Sisitsky '25 Frank Zingg '26 Sara Komaroff '27 Henry Hart '28 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
