Rye Country Day School '28
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.92 (fleet 1.44) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.03 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 3–12 (20%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 | 1 | 3–6 | — |
| Spring 2025 | 1 | 0–6 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (15 matches) the record is 3–12 against 2.3 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+0.7). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 2 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | NYISA-SE Team Race Qualifier | skipper | 0.97 | 2.13 | 3–6 | 1.6 | +1.16 | 1.0 | 19% |
| 2025-04-12 | NYISA-SE Team Race League Qualifiers | skipper | 0.74 | -2.26 | 0–6 | 0.8 | ≤−3.00 | 1.1 | >99% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 Team page Season | |||||
| NYISA-SE WaterFront Center Spring Open 1 | Skipper | A | 5 | 3.6 | 1.98 |
| NYISA-SE Team Race Qualifier | Skipper | TR | 9 | 33% | — |
| NYISA-SE Larchmont Intersectional Regatta | Skipper | A | 6 | 9.0 | 1.54 |
| NYISA-SE Ladder Rung Fleet Qualifier | Skipper | B | 8 | 2.8 | 2.23 |
| MASSA 2026 Fleet Championship & Mallory Qualifier | Skipper | B | 2 | 15.0 | 0.18 |
| Fall 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| MASSA 2025 Keelboat Championship Keelboat | Crew | A | 4 | 3.2 | — |
| Spring 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| NYISA-SE Fleet Championship Spring 2025 | Crew | B | 4 | 2.5 | +0.32 |
| NYISA-SE Team Race League Qualifiers | Skipper | TR | 6 | 0% | — |
| MASSA Spring Invitational | Skipper | A | 6 | 9.2 | 0.11 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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