| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
The Stony Brook School | Bears | 7–2 |
| 2 |  |
Rye High School | Garnets One | 5–4 |
| 3 |  |
Rye Country Day School | Wildcats | 3–6 |
| 4 |  |
Mamaroneck High School | Tigers | 3–6 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 13,250 team race matches sailed before 2026-04-12, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 12 of 18 matches (67%) with a log-loss of 0.629 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went poorly for the forecast. Orderliness −0.79 ± 0.51: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 10% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Stony Brook School Bears | 1 | 6.16 school −0.10 | Arancha Rivero-Ansed / Eric Panebianco 2.32 Carlos Gonzalez / Jp Panebianco 2.28 Ian Ainger / Nora Beaver 1.61 | 85% | 7–2 (78%) | −0.7 |
| 2 | Rye High School Garnets One | 2 | 4.46 school +0.28 | Kai Mcculloch / Jenna Kloepfer 1.40 Clemmie Kavanaugh / Maddie Waddington Melanie Lahrkamp / Will Prime 1.80 | 52% | 5–4 (56%) | +0.3 |
| 3 | Rye Country Day School Wildcats | 4 | 2.80 school −0.23 | Charlotte Crowley / David Arencibia 0.98 Henry Hart / Bianca Arencibia Zack Wirth / Sara Komaroff 0.95 | 18% | 3–6 (33%) | +1.4 |
| 4 | Mamaroneck High School Tigers | 3 | 4.12 school +0.19, home +0.10 | Ellie Millar / Jackson Conlan 1.27 Hadley Hall / Henry Kuriloff 1.23 Mason Colgan / Olivia Gray 1.16 | 45% | 3–6 (33%) | −1.0 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Rye Country Day School | 2.80 | 3.91 | 3–6 | 1.6 | +1.11 | 0.9 | 21% |
| 2 | Rye High School | 4.46 | 4.71 | 5–4 | 4.7 | +0.25 | 0.0 | 55% |
| 1 | The Stony Brook School | 6.16 | 5.51 | 7–2 | 7.7 | −0.66 | 0.3 | 87% |
| 4 | Mamaroneck High School | 4.12 | 3.34 | 3–6 | 4.0 | −0.78 | 0.4 | 88% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlotte Crowley | Rye Country Day School | 0.98 | 2.09 | 3–6 | 1.6 | +1.11 | 0.9 | 21% |
| Henry Hart | Rye Country Day School | 0.89 | 2.00 | 3–6 | 1.6 | +1.11 | 0.9 | 21% |
| Zack Wirth | Rye Country Day School | 0.95 | 2.06 | 3–6 | 1.6 | +1.11 | 0.9 | 21% |
| Kai Mcculloch | Rye High School | 1.40 | 1.65 | 5–4 | 4.7 | +0.25 | 0.0 | 55% |
| Clemmie Kavanaugh | Rye High School | 0.81 | 1.06 | 5–4 | 4.7 | +0.25 | 0.0 | 55% |
| Melanie Lahrkamp | Rye High School | 1.80 | 2.05 | 5–4 | 4.7 | +0.25 | 0.0 | 55% |
| Arancha Rivero-Ansed | The Stony Brook School | 2.32 | 1.67 | 7–2 | 7.7 | −0.66 | 0.3 | 87% |
| Carlos Gonzalez | The Stony Brook School | 2.28 | 1.63 | 7–2 | 7.7 | −0.66 | 0.3 | 87% |
| Ellie Millar | Mamaroneck High School | 1.27 | 0.49 | 3–6 | 4.0 | −0.78 | 0.4 | 88% |
| Hadley Hall | Mamaroneck High School | 1.23 | 0.45 | 3–6 | 4.0 | −0.78 | 0.4 | 88% |
| Mason Colgan | Mamaroneck High School | 1.16 | 0.38 | 3–6 | 4.0 | −0.78 | 0.4 | 88% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Bears | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Garnets One | 4-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Wildcats | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Tigers | 3-4-6 |
| 3 | |
Garnets One | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Wildcats | 3-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Bears | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Tigers | 3-4-6 |
| 5 | |
Bears | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Wildcats | 1-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Tigers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Garnets One | 3-4-6 |
| 7 | |
Garnets One | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bears | 3-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Wildcats | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Tigers | 2-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Bears | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Tigers | 4-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Garnets One | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Wildcats | 1-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Tigers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Garnets One | 3-4-5 |
| 12 | |
Bears | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Wildcats | 3-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Bears | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Garnets One | 3-4-5 |
| 14 | |
Tigers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Wildcats | 3-4-5 |
| 15 | |
Bears | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Tigers | 4-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Garnets One | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Wildcats | 4-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Garnets One | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Tigers | 4-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Wildcats | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Bears | 2-4-5 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
The Stony Brook School | Bears | Arancha Rivero-Ansed '27 Carlos Gonzalez '28 Ian Ainger '28 |
Eric Panebianco '29 Jp Panebianco '27 Nora Beaver '27 |
|
Rye High School | Garnets One | Clemmie Kavanaugh '29 Kai Mcculloch '27 Melanie Lahrkamp '27 |
Maddie Waddington '28 Jenna Kloepfer '28 Will Prime '28 |
|
Rye Country Day School | Wildcats | Charlotte Crowley '28 Henry Hart '28 Zack Wirth '27 |
David Arencibia '26 Bianca Arencibia '28 Sara Komaroff '27 |
|
Mamaroneck High School | Tigers | Ellie Millar '28 Hadley Hall '28 Mason Colgan '27 |
Jackson Conlan '29 Henry Kuriloff '28 Olivia Gray '27 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
