Rye High School '27
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.58 (fleet 2.56) | 92 of 231 | −0.00 ± 0.17 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 22–19 (54%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 | 1 | 5–4 | — |
| Spring 2025 | 2 | 11–13 | — |
| Spring 2024 | 1 | 6–2 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 4 graded regattas (41 matches) the record is 22–19 against 21.1 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+0.9). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | NYISA-SE Team Race Qualifier | skipper | 1.74 | 2.05 | 5–4 | 4.6 | +0.31 | 0.1 | 53% |
| 2025-04-26 | MASSA Baker Qualifier | skipper | 2.03 | 1.40 | 6–12 | 7.3 | −0.63 | 0.4 | 86% |
| 2025-04-12 | NYISA-SE Team Race League Qualifiers | skipper | 1.70 | 2.93 | 5–1 | 4.1 | +1.23 | 0.6 | 36% |
| 2024-04-14 | NYISA-SE Team Race Championship Spring 2024 | skipper | 1.80 | 2.60 | 6–2 | 5.2 | +0.81 | 0.3 | 41% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 Team page Season | |||||
| NYISA-SE Team Race Qualifier | Skipper | TR | 9 | 56% | — |
| NYISA-SE Ladder Rung Fleet Qualifier | Skipper | A | 8 | 2.2 | 2.91 |
| Fall 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| MASSA Fall Girls Invitational Champs Green Div | Skipper | A | 4 | 3.8 | 3.09 |
| MASSA Fall Girls Invitational Champ Gold Div. | Skipper | A | 5 | 6.2 | 1.54 |
| Spring 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| NYISA-SE Girls Fleet Championship Spring 2025 | Skipper | A | 6 | 1.8 | 2.64 |
| NYISA-SE Fleet Championship Spring 2025 | Skipper | A | 7 | 2.3 | 2.28 |
| NYISA-SE Team Race League Qualifiers | Skipper | TR | 6 | 83% | — |
| MASSA Fleet Championship and Mallory Qualifier | Skipper | A | 10 | 10.5 | 1.29 |
| MASSA Baker Qualifier | Skipper | TR | 18 | 33% | — |
| Fall 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| MASSA Girls Fall Invitational | Skipper | A | 10 | 7.1 | 1.81 |
| Spring 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| NYISA-SE Team Race Championship Spring 2024 | Skipper | TR | 8 | 75% | — |
| NYISA-SE All Girls League Championship 24' | Skipper | A | 5 | 1.8 | 1.86 |
| MASSA Girls Championship | Skipper | A | 9 | 3.6 | 2.69 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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