St. John the Baptist '24
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.69 (fleet 1.14) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.02 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 0–11 (0%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2023 | 1 | 0–3 | — |
| Spring 2023 | 1 | 0–8 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (11 matches) the record is 0–11 against 1.7 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.7). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 3 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-10-01 | NYISA-SE Fall Team Race Championship 2023 | skipper | 0.56 | -2.44 | 0–3 | 0.2 | ≤−3.00 | 0.3 | >99% |
| 2023-04-22 | NYISA-SE Team Race Championship | skipper | 0.50 | -2.50 | 0–8 | 1.5 | ≤−3.00 | 2.4 | >99% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| NYISA-SE Fall Team Race Championship 2023 | Skipper | TR | 3 | 0% | — |
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| NYISA-SE Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 8 | 0% | — |
| NYISA-SE Spring League Champs 2023 | Skipper | A | 6 | 4.5 | -1.50 |
| Fall 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| NYISA-SE In League 9/17/22 | Skipper | A | 6 | 4.2 | 0.55 |
| MASSA Fall Gold Fleet Champs [ACC Qualifier] | Skipper | A | 4 | 12.5 | -0.16 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICSA | Nicole Ostapowicz |  SUNY Maritime College |
'28 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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