| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
The Stony Brook School | Bears | 3–0 |
| 2 |  |
Rye High School | Garnets | 2–1 |
| 3 |  |
Mamaroneck High School | Tigers | 1–2 |
| 4 |  |
St. John the Baptist | Cougars | 0–3 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 10,391 team race matches sailed before 2023-10-01, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 5 of 6 matches (83%) with a log-loss of 0.233 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Stony Brook School Bears | 1 | 6.23 school −0.29, home +0.21 | Gavin Hudson / Dora Qian 2.60 Mauro Gonzales / Joshua Henson 2.22 Mairead Reitzel / Mia Jones 1.43 | 90% | 3–0 (100%) | +0.3 |
| 2 | Rye High School Garnets | 3 | 3.69 school +0.19 | Finn Palermo / Annabella Milano 1.54 Gunnar Wey / Haley Kloepfer Hugo Sacristan / Mark Lieshaj | 48% | 2–1 (67%) | +0.6 |
| 3 | Mamaroneck High School Tigers | 2 | 4.07 school +0.22 | Gabby Collins / Max Lazarus 1.86 Anndaly Mcmanus / Olivia Gray Lanie Ferrarone / Jonathan Wittick 1.29 | 54% | 1–2 (33%) | −0.6 |
| 4 | St. John the Baptist Cougars | 4 | 1.17 school −0.24 | Catherine Desmond / Bernadette Scott 0.76 Kathryn Elliott / Molly Mcmanus Nicole Ostapowicz / Michael Spadolini 0.56 | 8% | 0–3 (0%) | −0.2 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Stony Brook School | 6.23 | 9.23 | 3–0 | 2.7 | ≥+3.00 | 0.4 | 73% |
| 2 | Rye High School | 3.69 | 5.27 | 2–1 | 1.4 | +1.58 | 0.5 | 44% |
| 3 | Mamaroneck High School | 4.07 | 2.29 | 1–2 | 1.6 | −1.78 | 0.6 | 97% |
| 4 | St. John the Baptist | 1.17 | -1.83 | 0–3 | 0.2 | ≤−3.00 | 0.3 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mauro Gonzales | The Stony Brook School | 2.22 | 5.22 | 3–0 | 2.7 | ≥+3.00 | 0.4 | 73% |
| Mairead Reitzel | The Stony Brook School | 1.43 | 4.43 | 3–0 | 2.7 | ≥+3.00 | 0.4 | 73% |
| Hugo Sacristan | Rye High School | 0.93 | 2.51 | 2–1 | 1.4 | +1.58 | 0.5 | 44% |
| Anndaly Mcmanus | Mamaroneck High School | 0.65 | -1.13 | 1–2 | 1.6 | −1.78 | 0.6 | 97% |
| Catherine Desmond | St. John the Baptist | 0.76 | -2.24 | 0–3 | 0.2 | ≤−3.00 | 0.3 | >99% |
| Kathryn Elliott | St. John the Baptist | 0.03 | -2.97 | 0–3 | 0.2 | ≤−3.00 | 0.3 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Rd | # | Winner | Loser | P(winner) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Rye High School | St. John the Baptist | 88% | |
| 1 | 2 | The Stony Brook School | Mamaroneck High School | 84% | |
| 1 | 3 | The Stony Brook School | Rye High School | 88% | |
| 1 | 4 | Mamaroneck High School | St. John the Baptist | 91% | |
| 1 | 5 | The Stony Brook School | St. John the Baptist | 98% | |
| 1 | 6 | Rye High School | Mamaroneck High School | 43% | upset |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Garnets | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cougars | 4-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Bears | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Tigers | 2-4-6 |
| 3 | |
Bears | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Garnets | 3-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Tigers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Bears | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Cougars | 2-4-6 |
| 6 | |
Garnets | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Tigers | 3-5-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
The Stony Brook School | Bears | Gavin Hudson '24 Mairead Reitzel '24 Mauro Gonzales '24 |
Dora Qian '26 Mia Jones '26 Joshua Henson '25 |
|
Rye High School | Garnets | Finn Palermo '24 Gunnar Wey '24 Hugo Sacristan '26 |
Annabella Milano '25 Haley Kloepfer '25 Mark Lieshaj '26 |
|
Mamaroneck High School | Tigers | Anndaly Mcmanus '25 Gabby Collins '24 Lanie Ferrarone '24 |
Olivia Gray '27 Max Lazarus '25 Jonathan Wittick '25 |
|
St. John the Baptist | Cougars | Catherine Desmond '26 Kathryn Elliott '26 Nicole Ostapowicz '24 |
Bernadette Scott '24 Molly Mcmanus '26 Michael Spadolini '26 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
