Mamaroneck High School '25
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.48 (fleet 0.82) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.03 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 2–14 (12%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2024 | 2 | 1–12 | — |
| Fall 2023 | 1 | 1–2 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (15 matches) the record is 1–14 against 3.6 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−2.6). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 4 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-12 | MASSA Team Race Championship | skipper | 0.76 | -2.24 | 0–12 | 2.0 | ≤−3.00 | 2.9 | >99% |
| 2023-10-01 | NYISA-SE Fall Team Race Championship 2023 | skipper | 0.65 | -1.13 | 1–2 | 1.6 | −1.78 | 0.6 | 97% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| NYISA-SE Warm up Regatta | Skipper | A, B | 9 | 5.7 | — |
| NYISA-SE Fall Team Race Championship 2024 | Skipper | TR | 5 | 100% | — |
| MASSA Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 12 | 0% | — |
| Fall 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| NYISA-SE Warm Up Regatta | Skipper | B | 5 | 2.2 | 1.20 |
| NYISA-SE Fall Team Race Championship 2023 | Skipper | TR | 3 | 33% | — |
| MASSA Fall Silver Fleet Championship | Skipper | B | 8 | 7.0 | 0.90 |
| Fall 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| NYISA-SE In League 9/17/22 | Skipper | B | 6 | 3.7 | 1.00 |
| MASSA Fall Gold Fleet Champs [ACC Qualifier] | Skipper | B | 6 | 10.8 | 0.57 |
| Lawrence A. White Invitational | Skipper | B | 8 | 12.9 | -0.45 |
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| MASSA Fleet Racing Championships | Skipper | A | 5 | 16.8 | -2.15 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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