NYISA-SE Warm up Regatta

# SchoolTeam TOT
1 The Stony Brook School The Stony Brook School Bears 1 58
2 Mamaroneck High School Mamaroneck High School Tigers 1 84
3 Mamaroneck High School Mamaroneck High School Tigers 2 109
4 The Stony Brook School The Stony Brook School Bears 3 140
5 Mamaroneck High School Mamaroneck High School Tigers 3 142
6 The Stony Brook School The Stony Brook School Bears 2 172
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 TOT Sailors
The Stony Brook School The Stony Brook School Bears 1 A 8 3 3 1 2 3 1 3 1 25 Emily Gaillard '25
Jp Panebianco '27
The Stony Brook School The Stony Brook School Bears 1 B 3 1 OCS 3 1 1 8 1 2 33 Arancha Rivero-Ansed '27
Joshua Henson '25
The Stony Brook School The Stony Brook School Bears 3 A 5 4 2 6 3 2 4 5 3 34 Kevin Kelly '27
Michael Nett '29
Mamaroneck High School Mamaroneck High School Tigers 1 B 2 6 1 5 7 6 3 6 4 40 Jonathan Wittick '25
Reese Mendelsohn '28
Mamaroneck High School Mamaroneck High School Tigers 1 A 1 7 4 7 5 9 2 2 7 44 Michelle Kaneti '25
Olivia Gray '27
Mamaroneck High School Mamaroneck High School Tigers 2 B 4 5 7 2 4 5 6 8 5 46 Luke Roman '29 [1-9]
Anndaly Mcmanus '25 [1-7]
Morgan Vanderwoude '26 [8-9]
Mamaroneck High School Mamaroneck High School Tigers 3 A 10 2 5 4 8 8 7 7 6 57 Mason Colgan '27
Lily Dorian '26
Mamaroneck High School Mamaroneck High School Tigers 2 A 7 9 6 8 6 4 5 9 9 63 Svante Toftgaard '26 [1-7]
Anndaly Mcmanus '25 [8-9]
Logan Solsby '26 [1-7]
The Stony Brook School The Stony Brook School Bears 2 A 6 8 8 9 9 10 9 4 8 71 Nora Beaver '27
Gisele Brandao '27
Mamaroneck High School Mamaroneck High School Tigers 3 B 9 10 9 10 10 7 10 10 10 85 Andreas Botero '26
Gabriel Guillet '26
The Stony Brook School The Stony Brook School Bears 2 B 11 11 OCS 11 11 11 11 11 11 101 Carlos Gonzalez '28
Mia Jones '26
The Stony Brook School The Stony Brook School Bears 3 B 12 12 10 12 12 12 12 12 12 106 No Show
No Show
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.100+0.10
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2024 (4 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A
Mamaroneck High SchoolMamaroneck High School Tigers 111111111
Mamaroneck High SchoolMamaroneck High School Tigers 244444444
Mamaroneck High SchoolMamaroneck High School Tigers 388888888
The Stony Brook SchoolThe Stony Brook School Bears 133333333
The Stony Brook SchoolThe Stony Brook School Bears 21010101010101010
The Stony Brook SchoolThe Stony Brook School Bears 31111111111111111

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B
Mamaroneck High SchoolMamaroneck High School Tigers 122222222
Mamaroneck High SchoolMamaroneck High School Tigers 255555555
Mamaroneck High SchoolMamaroneck High School Tigers 399999999
The Stony Brook SchoolThe Stony Brook School Bears 166666666
The Stony Brook SchoolThe Stony Brook School Bears 21212121212121212
The Stony Brook SchoolThe Stony Brook School Bears 31313131313131313

Conditions — 09/07/2024 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle
Humidity 81%  ·  Pressure 1010.0 hPa

Temperature

69°F
↑ 73°F   ↓ 63°F
Feels like 70°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
8.6 kn
avg  ·  max 10.1 kn
Gusts to 25.1 kn
From S (169°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover99% Sunshine6.2 hrs Humidity81% Pressure1010.0 hPa Rain0.44 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 11 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Mamaroneck: a favourites’ day (+0.03)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.08 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.11
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.15 ± 0.26)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 2% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Mamaroneck by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at Mamaroneck: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →