MASSA Fall Silver Fleet Championship

HostBuffalo Yacht Club
Date10/28/2023
TypeDistrict Championship
BoatCFJ
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Christchurch School	Seahorses 1	34	58	92
2	Great Mills High School	Hornets	80	55	135
3	Christchurch School	Seahorses 2	78	82	160
4	Canisius High School	Crusaders	99	69	168
5	Mamaroneck High School	Tigers	83	101	184
6	Ranney School	Panthers	100	97	197
7	Gunston	Herons	110	88	198
8	Jackson-Reed High School	Tigers	127	87	214
9	St. John the Baptist	Cougars	111	107	218
10	Sts. Peter & Paul	Sabres	81	139	220
11	Southwestern Central High School	Trojans	140	132	272
12	Kent Island High School	Buccaneers	148	134	282
13	St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute	Marauders	126	157	283
14	West Irondequoit	Eagles	144	164	308

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	R12	R13	R14	TOT	Sailors
Christchurch School	Seahorses 1	2	1	2	1	2	1	4	1	9	2	1	1	4	3	34	Elliott Lipp '26 Bennett Moss '26
Christchurch School	Seahorses 2	1	6	1	7	6	2	7	6	4	8	5	9	10	6	78	Adelaide Matzky '25 Chloe Shurr '25
Great Mills High School	Hornets	5	2	6	9	10	4	9	3	5	6	2	3	14	2	80	Claire Sullivan '25 [1-14] Eli Leopold '24 [1-8] Eliza Szymendera '25 [9-14]
Sts. Peter & Paul	Sabres	9	3	4	2	7	14	2	9	1	10	4	2	1	13	81	Hartley Cooper '26 Daniel Schwaninger '26
Mamaroneck High School	Tigers	7	RDG	3	3	5	7	5	4	7	11	14	7	3	1	83	Lanie Ferrarone '24 Max Lazarus '25
Canisius High School	Crusaders	3	13	10	6	13	11	6	7	2	3	3	10	7	5	99	Jack Riley '25 Ian Bren '25
Ranney School	Panthers	6	7	DSQ	5	8	10	1	2	6	4	7	DSQ	6	8	100	Lewis Forrest '25 [1-14] Sophia Behar '25 [1-10] Anthony Abboud '25 [11-14]
Gunston	Herons	11	8	13	8	1	3	8	11	12	5	BKD	5	5	12	110	Tommy Mcgeady '25 [1-14] Alix Allison '25 [1-4] Justin Mccubbin '25 [5-14]
St. John the Baptist	Cougars	8	9	5	11	3	8	11	12	11	1	6	4	11	11	111	Catherine Desmond '26 [1-14] Kathryn Elliott '26 [1-7] Molly Mcmanus '26 [8-14]
St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute	Marauders	4	10	7	13	4	12	14	8	3	7	10	11	13	10	126	Benjamin Mazurkiewicz '25 [1-14] Matthew Hudi '26 [1-8, 10] Lucio Moscati '27 [9, 11-14]
Jackson-Reed High School	Tigers	13	5	8	10	14	6	13	5	10	12	12	13	2	4	127	Luke Petry '27 [1-14] Jonah Molinoff '25 [1-6, 11-12] Leif Carney '25 [7-10, 13-14]
Southwestern Central High School	Trojans	12	4	12	4	12	5	12	13	14	14	8	8	8	14	140	Philipp Meyer '24 Matt Lefler '24
West Irondequoit	Eagles	14	12	9	14	11	9	3	10	8	13	13	12	9	7	144	Violet Richter '27 Susan Bondi '27
Kent Island High School	Buccaneers	10	11	11	12	9	13	10	14	13	9	9	6	12	9	148	James Biles V '27 [1-14] Henry Macmillan '26 [1-8] Teagan Leigh '28 [9-14]

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	R12	R13	R14	TOT	Sailors
Great Mills High School	Hornets	7	2	1	2	3	4	2	4	4	5	7	10	3	1	55	Ryan Brelage '24 [1-14] Alex Prior '24 [1-8, 11-14] Owen Delwiche '25 [9-10]
Christchurch School	Seahorses 1	5	11	7	3	2	1	1	3	1	DSQ	4	2	1	2	58	Laura Smitt '26 Cherry Phan '25
Canisius High School	Crusaders	3	7	12	6	1	7	3	6	9	2	3	1	4	5	69	Matthew Murad '26 Alex Emblidge '29
Christchurch School	Seahorses 2	1	4	5	4	14	14	OCS	2	7	1	1	5	2	7	82	Duncan Hardy '27 [1-4, 7-14] Pierson Teer '27 [5-6] Suzie Nguyen '25 [1-8] Jacob Carey '26 [9-12] Gian Bertozzi Castro '25 [13-14]
Jackson-Reed High School	Tigers	4	12	3	7	12	3	6	1	2	11	5	4	6	11	87	William Lindsley '24 [1-14] Caitlin Costello '24 [1-12] Jonah Molinoff '25 [13-14]
Gunston	Herons	2	3	10	1	4	2	12	9	14	9	2	9	5	6	88	Andrew Shingledecker '27 [1-14] Isabella Ford '27 [1-10] Caroline Thomas '26 [11-14]
Ranney School	Panthers	9	5	6	13	7	11	4	10	3	7	6	3	9	4	97	Jack Pentony '26 Dylan Pagonis '26
Mamaroneck High School	Tigers	10	6	2	5	10	6	10	5	12	6	12	7	7	3	101	Jonathan Wittick '25 [1-2, 11-14] Anndaly Mcmanus '25 [3-10] Graham Welsh '23 [1-2, 7-8, 11-14] Jonathan Wittick '25 [3-6, 9-10]
St. John the Baptist	Cougars	11	1	11	8	9	9	5	8	6	8	8	6	8	9	107	Kevin Ryan '25 [1-14] Bridget Theisen '25 [1-7] Caitlin Stewart '27 [8-14]
Southwestern Central High School	Trojans	6	10	9	11	6	8	8	11	10	10	9	8	13	13	132	Nolan Lefler '25 [1-14] Aiden Dearman '26 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10, 13-14] Annika Hedin '25 [3-4, 7-8, 11-12]
Kent Island High School	Buccaneers	8	9	8	10	5	10	13	7	8	12	14	11	11	8	134	Zachary Wells '25 [1-14] Adalyn Biles '27 [1-10, 13-14] Henry Macmillan '26 [11-12]
Sts. Peter & Paul	Sabres	12	8	4	9	8	5	7	13	13	13	11	14	10	12	139	Louisa Kalinski '25 [1-14] Victor Kleppinger '25 [1-8, 11-13] Riley Schnable '25 [9-10] Daniel Schwaninger '26 [14]
St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute	Marauders	14	14	14	14	11	13	11	12	5	3	10	12	14	10	157	Lucio Moscati '27 [1-8] Josh Elliott '24 [9-14] Mathew Terry '26 [1-8] Daniel Piazza '26 [9-14]
West Irondequoit	Eagles	13	13	13	12	13	12	9	BKD	11	4	13	13	12	14	164	Chase Werner '26 Matt Baker '26

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.100+0.10

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2021 (4 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A	8A	9A	10A	11A	12A	13A	14A
Canisius High School Crusaders	1	1	3	3	5	5	7	7	10	10	12	12	14	14
Christchurch School Seahorses 1	2	2	4	4	6	6	8	8	11	11	13	13	15	15
Christchurch School Seahorses 2	3	3	5	5	7	7	10	10	12	12	14	14	1	1
Great Mills High School Hornets	4	4	6	6	8	8	11	11	13	13	15	15	2	2
Jackson-Reed High School Tigers	6	6	8	8	11	11	13	13	15	15	2	2	4	4
Kent Island High School Buccaneers	7	7	10	10	12	12	14	14	1	1	3	3	5	5
Mamaroneck High School Tigers	8	8	11	11	13	13	15	15	2	2	4	4	6	6
Ranney School Panthers	10	10	12	12	14	14	1	1	3	3	5	5	7	7
Sts. Peter & Paul Sabres	14	14	1	1	3	3	5	5	7	7	10	10	12	12
Southwestern Central High School Trojans	11	11	13	13	15	15	2	2	4	4	6	6	8	8
St. John the Baptist Cougars	12	12	14	14	1	1	3	3	5	5	7	7	10	10
St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute Marauders	13	13	15	15	2	2	4	4	6	6	8	8	11	11
Gunston Herons	5	5	7	7	10	10	12	12	14	14	1	1	3	3
West Irondequoit Eagles	15	15	2	2	4	4	6	6	8	8	11	11	13	13

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B	7B	8B	9B	10B	11B	12B	13B	14B
Canisius High School Crusaders	2	2	4	4	6	6	8	8	11	11	13	13	15	15
Christchurch School Seahorses 1	3	3	5	5	7	7	10	10	12	12	14	14	1	1
Christchurch School Seahorses 2	4	4	6	6	8	8	11	11	13	13	15	15	2	2
Great Mills High School Hornets	5	5	7	7	10	10	12	12	14	14	1	1	3	3
Jackson-Reed High School Tigers	7	7	10	10	12	12	14	14	1	1	3	3	5	5
Kent Island High School Buccaneers	8	8	11	11	13	13	15	15	2	2	4	4	6	6
Mamaroneck High School Tigers	10	10	12	12	14	14	1	1	3	3	5	5	7	7
Ranney School Panthers	11	11	13	13	15	15	2	2	4	4	6	6	8	8
Sts. Peter & Paul Sabres	15	15	2	2	4	4	6	6	8	8	11	11	13	13
Southwestern Central High School Trojans	12	12	14	14	1	1	3	3	5	5	7	7	10	10
St. John the Baptist Cougars	13	13	15	15	2	2	4	4	6	6	8	8	11	11
St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute Marauders	14	14	1	1	3	3	5	5	7	7	10	10	12	12
Gunston Herons	6	6	8	8	11	11	13	13	15	15	2	2	4	4
West Irondequoit Eagles	1	1	3	3	5	5	7	7	10	10	12	12	14	14

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Canisius High School	Jack Riley '25	Ian Bren '25
Crusaders	Matthew Murad '26	Alex Emblidge '29
Christchurch School	Elliott Lipp '26	Bennett Moss '26
Seahorses 1	Laura Smitt '26	Cherry Phan '25
Christchurch School	Adelaide Matzky '25	Chloe Shurr '25
Seahorses 2	Duncan Hardy '27 [1-4, 7-14] Pierson Teer '27 [5-6]	Suzie Nguyen '25 [1-8] Jacob Carey '26 [9-12] Gian Bertozzi Castro '25 [13-14]
Great Mills High School	Claire Sullivan '25 [1-14]	Eli Leopold '24 [1-8] Eliza Szymendera '25 [9-14]
Hornets	Ryan Brelage '24 [1-14]	Alex Prior '24 [1-8, 11-14] Owen Delwiche '25 [9-10]
Gunston	Tommy Mcgeady '25 [1-14]	Alix Allison '25 [1-4] Justin Mccubbin '25 [5-14]
Herons	Andrew Shingledecker '27 [1-14]	Isabella Ford '27 [1-10] Caroline Thomas '26 [11-14]
Jackson-Reed High School	Luke Petry '27 [1-14]	Jonah Molinoff '25 [1-6, 11-12] Leif Carney '25 [7-10, 13-14]
Tigers	William Lindsley '24 [1-14]	Caitlin Costello '24 [1-12] Jonah Molinoff '25 [13-14]
Kent Island High School	James Biles V '27 [1-14]	Henry Macmillan '26 [1-8] Teagan Leigh '28 [9-14]
Buccaneers	Zachary Wells '25 [1-14]	Adalyn Biles '27 [1-10, 13-14] Henry Macmillan '26 [11-12]
Mamaroneck High School	Lanie Ferrarone '24	Max Lazarus '25
Tigers	Jonathan Wittick '25 [1-2, 11-14] Anndaly Mcmanus '25 [3-10]	Graham Welsh '23 [1-2, 7-8, 11-14] Jonathan Wittick '25 [3-6, 9-10]
Ranney School	Lewis Forrest '25 [1-14]	Sophia Behar '25 [1-10] Anthony Abboud '25 [11-14]
Panthers	Jack Pentony '26	Dylan Pagonis '26
Southwestern Central High School	Philipp Meyer '24	Matt Lefler '24
Trojans	Nolan Lefler '25 [1-14]	Aiden Dearman '26 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10, 13-14] Annika Hedin '25 [3-4, 7-8, 11-12]
St. John the Baptist	Catherine Desmond '26 [1-14]	Kathryn Elliott '26 [1-7] Molly Mcmanus '26 [8-14]
Cougars	Kevin Ryan '25 [1-14]	Bridget Theisen '25 [1-7] Caitlin Stewart '27 [8-14]
St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute	Benjamin Mazurkiewicz '25 [1-14]	Matthew Hudi '26 [1-8, 10] Lucio Moscati '27 [9, 11-14]
Marauders	Lucio Moscati '27 [1-8] Josh Elliott '24 [9-14]	Mathew Terry '26 [1-8] Daniel Piazza '26 [9-14]
Sts. Peter & Paul	Hartley Cooper '26	Daniel Schwaninger '26
Sabres	Louisa Kalinski '25 [1-14]	Victor Kleppinger '25 [1-8, 11-13] Riley Schnable '25 [9-10] Daniel Schwaninger '26 [14]
West Irondequoit	Violet Richter '27	Susan Bondi '27
Eagles	Chase Werner '26	Matt Baker '26

Conditions — 10/28/2023 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 69% · Pressure 1020.6 hPa

Temperature

56°F

↑ 60°F ↓ 52°F

Feels like 52°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

7.5 kn

avg · max 9.2 kn

Gusts to 20.2 kn

From NW (324°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover67% Sunshine7.7 hrs Humidity69% Pressure1020.6 hPa Rain0.04 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NW 10 kn · E 12 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In this breeze at Buffalo Yacht Club: a typical day (+0.02)

Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.

Fleet adjustment +0.05 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.06

Actual: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.21 ± 0.10)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Buffalo Yacht Club by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at Buffalo Yacht Club: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

Navigate

Menu