| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Christchurch School | Seahorses | 7–1 |
| 2 |  |
Severn School | Admirals | 6–2 |
| 3 |  |
Hampton Roads Academy | Navigators | 5–3 |
| 4 |  |
Archbishop Spalding | Cavaliers | 4–4 |
| 5 |  |
Norfolk Academy | Bulldogs | 3–2 |
| 6 |  |
The Stony Brook School | Bears | 3–2 |
| 6 |  |
Christian Brothers Academy | Colts | 3–2 |
| 8 |  |
Norfolk Collegiate School | Oaks | 2–3 |
| 9 |  |
Key School | Zags | 1–4 |
| 9 |  |
Broadneck High School | Bruins | 1–4 |
| 9 |  |
Leonardtown High School | Raiders | 1–4 |
| 12 |  |
Maury High School | Commodores | 0–5 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 10,458 team race matches sailed before 2023-10-14, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 27 of 32 matches (84%) with a log-loss of 0.416 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.46 ± 0.42: an orderly event, more orderly than 74% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Christchurch School | 7.62 | 9.08 | 5–1 | 3.9 | +1.45 | 0.8 | 30% |
| 4 | Archbishop Spalding | 5.46 | 6.91 | 4–2 | 2.6 | +1.45 | 1.1 | 21% |
| 6 | Christian Brothers Academy | 6.37 | 7.28 | 3–2 | 2.3 | +0.91 | 0.3 | 42% |
| 3 | Hampton Roads Academy | 6.99 | 7.38 | 5–1 | 4.7 | +0.38 | 0.1 | 63% |
| 6 | The Stony Brook School | 6.17 | 5.96 | 3–2 | 3.2 | −0.21 | 0.0 | 76% |
| 9 | Leonardtown High School | 4.97 | 4.59 | 1–4 | 1.2 | −0.38 | 0.0 | 80% |
| 5 | Norfolk Academy | 7.40 | 6.95 | 3–2 | 3.3 | −0.45 | 0.1 | 82% |
| 2 | Severn School | 8.10 | 7.56 | 4–2 | 4.5 | −0.54 | 0.1 | 83% |
| 8 | Norfolk Collegiate School | 5.49 | 4.92 | 2–3 | 2.5 | −0.57 | 0.1 | 83% |
| 9 | Broadneck High School | 4.45 | 3.77 | 1–4 | 1.4 | −0.68 | 0.2 | 84% |
| 9 | Key School | 4.37 | 3.57 | 1–4 | 1.6 | −0.79 | 0.2 | 85% |
| 12 | Maury High School | 4.32 | 1.32 | 0–5 | 0.8 | ≤−3.00 | 1.1 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Viera | Christchurch School | 2.41 | 3.86 | 5–1 | 3.9 | +1.45 | 0.8 | 30% |
| Wylder Smith | Christchurch School | 2.35 | 3.81 | 5–1 | 3.9 | +1.45 | 0.8 | 30% |
| Charles Geraghty | Archbishop Spalding | 0.33 | 1.77 | 4–2 | 2.6 | +1.45 | 1.1 | 21% |
| Parker Herman | Archbishop Spalding | 2.40 | 3.85 | 4–2 | 2.6 | +1.45 | 1.1 | 21% |
| Cole Buczkowski | Christian Brothers Academy | 1.87 | 2.78 | 3–2 | 2.3 | +0.91 | 0.3 | 42% |
| Hunter Wheary | Norfolk Academy | 1.83 | 1.85 | 2–1 | 2.0 | +0.02 | 0.0 | 76% |
| Mauro Gonzales | The Stony Brook School | 2.26 | 2.05 | 3–2 | 3.2 | −0.21 | 0.0 | 76% |
| Mairead Reitzel | The Stony Brook School | 1.48 | 1.27 | 3–2 | 3.2 | −0.21 | 0.0 | 76% |
| James Rizek | Key School | 1.16 | 0.78 | 1–4 | 1.2 | −0.38 | 0.0 | 80% |
| Will Clay | Leonardtown High School | 1.54 | 1.16 | 1–4 | 1.2 | −0.38 | 0.0 | 80% |
| Annie Sitzmann | Severn School | 2.80 | 2.26 | 4–2 | 4.5 | −0.54 | 0.1 | 83% |
| Ava Cornell | Severn School | 2.76 | 2.22 | 4–2 | 4.5 | −0.54 | 0.1 | 83% |
| Alex Baker | Severn School | 2.73 | 2.19 | 4–2 | 4.5 | −0.54 | 0.1 | 83% |
| Cal King | Norfolk Collegiate School | 1.57 | 1.00 | 2–3 | 2.5 | −0.57 | 0.1 | 83% |
| Aden Keithley | Broadneck High School | 0.84 | 0.17 | 1–4 | 1.4 | −0.68 | 0.2 | 84% |
| Chris White | Broadneck High School | 1.73 | 1.06 | 1–4 | 1.4 | −0.68 | 0.2 | 84% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Admirals | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 3-4-5 |
| 2 | |
Navigators | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Cavaliers | 2-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Colts | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Raiders | 3-4-5 |
| 4 | |
Bears | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Bruins | 2-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Seahorses | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Commodores | 3-4-6 |
| 6 | |
Oaks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Zags | 4-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Admirals | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Raiders | 4-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Navigators | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bears | 3-4-6 |
| 9 | |
Bulldogs | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Colts | 2-3-6 |
| 10 | |
Cavaliers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bruins | 3-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Admirals | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Commodores | 3-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Navigators | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Oaks | 2-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Seahorses | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Raiders | 3-4-6 |
| 14 | |
Bears | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Zags | 3-4-6 |
| 15 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Commodores | 3-4-5 |
| 16 | |
Cavaliers | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Oaks | 1-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Colts | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Admirals | 3-4-5 |
| 18 | |
Navigators | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bruins | 4-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Seahorses | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 3-4-6 |
| 20 | |
Cavaliers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Zags | 3-4-6 |
| 21 | |
Raiders | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Commodores | 1-5-6 |
| 22 | |
Bears | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Oaks | 3-4-6 |
| 23 | |
Seahorses | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Colts | 3-5-6 |
| 24 | |
Bruins | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Zags | 2-3-6 |
| 25 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Raiders | 3-4-5 |
| 26 | |
Cavaliers | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Bears | 2-5-6 |
| 27 | |
Admirals | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Seahorses | 3-4-6 |
| 28 | |
Zags | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Navigators | 3-4-5 |
| 29 | |
Colts | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Commodores | 4-5-6 |
| 30 | |
Oaks | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bruins | 3-4-5 |
| 31 | |
Admirals | def. | |
Bears | ||
| 32 | |
Bulldogs | def. | |
Cavaliers | ||
| 33 | |
Raiders | def. | |
Navigators | ||
| 34 | |
Seahorses | def. | |
Zags | ||
| 35 | |
Colts | def. | |
Bruins | ||
| 36 | |
Commodores | def. | |
Oaks | ||
| 37 | |
Bulldogs | def. | |
Bears | ||
| 38 | |
Admirals | def. | |
Navigators | ||
| 39 | |
Seahorses | def. | |
Cavaliers | ||
| 40 | |
Raiders | def. | |
Oaks | ||
| 41 | |
Commodores | def. | |
Bruins | ||
| 42 | |
Colts | def. | |
Zags | ||
| 43 | |
Admirals | def. | |
Cavaliers | ||
| 44 | |
Seahorses | def. | |
Navigators | ||
| 45 | |
Bulldogs | def. | |
Oaks | ||
| 46 | |
Bruins | def. | |
Raiders | ||
| 47 | |
Colts | def. | |
Bears | ||
| 48 | |
Commodores | def. | |
Zags | ||
| 49 | |
Seahorses | def. | |
Oaks | ||
| 50 | |
Bruins | def. | |
Admirals | ||
| 51 | |
Raiders | def. | |
Cavaliers | ||
| 52 | |
Navigators | def. | |
Bulldogs | ||
| 53 | |
Bears | def. | |
Commodores | ||
| 54 | |
Colts | def. | |
Oaks | ||
| 55 | |
Zags | def. | |
Admirals | ||
| 56 | |
Bruins | def. | |
Seahorses | ||
| 57 | |
Navigators | def. | |
Commodores | ||
| 58 | |
Cavaliers | def. | |
Colts | ||
| 59 | |
Bears | def. | |
Raiders | ||
| 60 | |
Zags | def. | |
Bulldogs | ||
| 61 | |
Oaks | def. | |
Admirals | ||
| 62 | |
Cavaliers | def. | |
Commodores | ||
| 63 | |
Navigators | def. | |
Colts | ||
| 64 | |
Seahorses | def. | |
Bears | ||
| 65 | |
Bruins | def. | |
Bulldogs | ||
| 66 | |
Zags | def. | |
Raiders | ||
| 67 | |
Seahorses | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Admirals | 1-4-6 |
| 68 | |
Navigators | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Cavaliers | 1-5-6 |
| 69 | |
Admirals | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cavaliers | 4-5-6 |
| 70 | |
Seahorses | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Navigators | 3-4-5 |
| 71 | |
Seahorses | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cavaliers | 4-5-6 |
| 72 | |
Admirals | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Navigators | 4-5-6 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 3% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
