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NYISA-SE LYC Spring Ice Breaker 2024

# SchoolTeam TOT
1 The Stony Brook School The Stony Brook School Bears 52
2 Mamaroneck High School Mamaroneck High School Tigers 1 83
3 Rye High School Rye High School Garnets 1 91
4 Mamaroneck High School Mamaroneck High School Tigers 2 134
5 Rye High School Rye High School Garnets 2 190
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 TOT Sailors
The Stony Brook School The Stony Brook School Bears B 5 2 1 4 1 1 1 4 2 3 24 Mauro Gonzales '24 [1-10]
Mairead Reitzel '24 [1-6]
Joshua Henson '25 [7-10]
The Stony Brook School The Stony Brook School Bears A 1 1 2 5 2 2 6 1 6 2 28 Gavin Hudson '24 [1-10]
Elaine Tian '24 [1-6]
Mairead Reitzel '24 [7-10]
Mamaroneck High School Mamaroneck High School Tigers 1 A 7 6 4 3 6 3 2 5 3 1 40 Gabby Collins '24
Olivia Gray '26
Rye High School Rye High School Garnets 1 B 3 7 3 1 5 6 4 3 1 7 40 Finn Palermo '24
Haley Kloepfer '25
Mamaroneck High School Mamaroneck High School Tigers 1 B 4 5 5 2 4 7 3 2 5 6 43 Lanie Ferrarone '24
Isabella Osuna '23
Rye High School Rye High School Garnets 1 A 2 3 6 6 3 8 5 6 8 4 51 Kai Mcculloch '27
Annabella Milano '25
Mamaroneck High School Mamaroneck High School Tigers 2 A 8 4 7 7 7 4 7 7 7 5 63 Graham Welsh '23
Lily Dorian '26
Mamaroneck High School Mamaroneck High School Tigers 2 B 6 8 8 8 8 5 8 8 4 8 71 Svante Toftgaard '26
Logan Solsby '26
Rye High School Rye High School Garnets 2 A 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 90 Mark Lieshaj '26
Cecelia Hoogstra '25
Rye High School Rye High School Garnets 2 B 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 100 Alice Waddington '25
Abby Roberson '25
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.100+0.10
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2024 (4 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A
Mamaroneck High SchoolMamaroneck High School Tigers 11111111111
Mamaroneck High SchoolMamaroneck High School Tigers 22222222222
Rye High SchoolRye High School Garnets 14444444444
Rye High SchoolRye High School Garnets 26666666666
The Stony Brook SchoolThe Stony Brook School Bears7777777777

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B
Mamaroneck High SchoolMamaroneck High School Tigers 18888888888
Mamaroneck High SchoolMamaroneck High School Tigers 29999999999
Rye High SchoolRye High School Garnets 116161616161616161616
Rye High SchoolRye High School Garnets 20000000000
The Stony Brook SchoolThe Stony Brook School Bears18181818181818181818

Conditions — 03/16/2024 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 59%  ·  Pressure 1009.7 hPa

Temperature

51°F
↑ 56°F   ↓ 40°F
Feels like 45°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.2 kn
avg  ·  max 10.0 kn
Gusts to 23.7 kn
From SW (233°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover53% Sunshine10.7 hrs Humidity59% Pressure1009.7 hPa Rain0.01 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Mamaroneck: a typical day (−0.01)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment +0.04 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.04
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.01 ± 0.17)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Mamaroneck by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at Mamaroneck: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →