MDISA SSPP T2 Fleet

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Severn School Severn School Admirals 6 10 16
2 Gunston Gunston Herons 16 13 29
3 Archbishop Spalding Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers 23 15 38
4 Sts. Peter & Paul Sts. Peter & Paul Sabres 28 29 57
5 South River High School South River High School Seahawks 37 47 84
6 Kent Island High School Kent Island High School Buccaneers 38 55 MRP 93 MRP
7 The Tome School The Tome School Titans 48 46 94
8 St. Mary's High School (MD) St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints 50 MRP 56 MRP 106 MRP
9 Indian Creek School Indian Creek School Eagles 64 MRP 61 MRP 125 MRP
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Severn School Severn School Admirals 1 1 1 1 1 1 6 Caroline (Cc) Carey '28
Isabella Ford '28
Gunston Gunston Herons 2 2 2 2 4 4 16 Lizzy Chiochetti '27 [1-6]
Izzy Labrador '28 [1-4]
Nina Johnston '25 [5-6]
Archbishop Spalding Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers 3 4 8 3 3 2 23 Adam Kurpiewski '27 [1-2]
Matthew Synoracki '28 [3-6]
Sloane Fagiolo '27 [1-2, 5-6]
Liam Peterson '28 [3-4]
Sts. Peter & Paul Sts. Peter & Paul Sabres 4 6 4 6 5 3 28 Justin Callahan '29
Ian Cox '29
South River High School South River High School Seahawks 8 3 3 7 7 9 37 Harrison Jones '26
Finn Fraser '28
Kent Island High School Kent Island High School Buccaneers 5 9 7 5 6 6 38 Cole Ramsey '28 [1-6]
Alejandro Piquero '27 [1-2]
Samuel Wells '27 [3-6]
The Tome School The Tome School Titans 7 7 9 9 8 8 48 John Arty '29
Hunter Miller '26
St. Mary's High School (MD) St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints 6 8 5 4 2 5 50 MRP Sophia Sollock '30 [1-6]
Mia Richardson '29 [1-2]
Charlotte Lian '29 [3-6]
Indian Creek School Indian Creek School Eagles 9 5 6 8 9 7 64 MRP Jack Mills '30
Blake Gezelle '27
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Severn School Severn School Admirals 1 1 2 3 2 1 10 Will Tweed '28 [1-6]
Hudson Grow '28 [1-2, 5-6]
Eliza Brenia '28 [3-4]
Gunston Gunston Herons 3 2 1 1 3 3 13 Joseph Mcgeady '27
Ella Von Voss '28
Archbishop Spalding Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers 4 3 3 2 1 2 15 Alex Julian '28 [1-6]
Dylan Cinque '27 [1-4]
Vika Ferus '27 [5-6]
Sts. Peter & Paul Sts. Peter & Paul Sabres 6 7 4 4 4 4 29 Nate Schwaniger '29
Gabby Beckett '28
The Tome School The Tome School Titans 8 9 7 7 7 8 46 Charles Partridge '28 [1-6]
Gideon Garber '28 [1-2]
John Mcmonigle '28 [3-6]
South River High School South River High School Seahawks DNF 8 8 6 8 7 47 Tomas ... '26
Rory Campbell '27
Kent Island High School Kent Island High School Buccaneers 5 4 9 5 6 6 55 MRP Andrew Lavoie '27 [1-2, 5-6]
Ben Billets '27 [3-4]
Ben Billets '27 [1-2]
Teagan Leigh '28 [3-6]
St. Mary's High School (MD) St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints 7 5 6 8 5 5 56 MRP Connor Swift '29
Seth Spiegel '30
Indian Creek School Indian Creek School Eagles 2 6 5 9 9 DNF 61 MRP Stuart Wermer '28
Gabrielle Mckenna '28
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.060+0.06
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2016 (22 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
Archbishop SpaldingArchbishop Spalding Cavaliers113355
Indian Creek SchoolIndian Creek School Eagles335577
Kent Island High SchoolKent Island High School Buccaneers446688
Sts. Peter & PaulSts. Peter & Paul Sabres881133
Severn SchoolSevern School Admirals557799
South River High SchoolSouth River High School Seahawks668811
St. Mary's High School (MD)St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints779922
GunstonGunston Herons224466
The Tome SchoolThe Tome School Titans992244

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B
Archbishop SpaldingArchbishop Spalding Cavaliers224466
Indian Creek SchoolIndian Creek School Eagles446688
Kent Island High SchoolKent Island High School Buccaneers557799
Sts. Peter & PaulSts. Peter & Paul Sabres992244
Severn SchoolSevern School Admirals668811
South River High SchoolSouth River High School Seahawks779922
St. Mary's High School (MD)St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints881133
GunstonGunston Herons335577
The Tome SchoolThe Tome School Titans113355

Conditions — 03/30/2025 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 62%  ·  Pressure 1016.9 hPa

Temperature

71°F
↑ 76°F   ↓ 63°F
Feels like 68°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
11.2 kn
avg  ·  max 13.9 kn
Gusts to 27.6 kn
From S (186°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover74% Sunshine7.0 hrs Humidity62% Pressure1016.9 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 14 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Saints Peter & Paul: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.27)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.14 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.41
Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.57 ± 0.20)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.27 means a rating gap counts about 24% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Saints Peter & Paul by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 3 labelled days at Saints Peter & Paul, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →