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MDISA KENT ISLAND T2

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Severn School Severn School Admirals 4 3 7
2 Walt Whitman High School Walt Whitman High School Vikings 7 7 14
3 Sts. Peter & Paul Sts. Peter & Paul Sabres 10 8 18
4 Kent Island High School Kent Island High School Buccaneers 14 14 28
5 Gunston Gunston Herons 20 17 37
6 Washington Liberty High School Washington Liberty High School Washington Liberty 14 27 41
7 St. Mary's Ryken St. Mary's Ryken Knights 27 27 54
8 Washington Latin Washington Latin Lions 27 27 54
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 TOT Sailors
Severn School Severn School Admirals 1 1 2 4 Caroline (Cc) Carey '28
Eliza Brenia '28
Walt Whitman High School Walt Whitman High School Vikings 3 3 1 7 Amelia Wire '27
Shane Churilla '25
Sts. Peter & Paul Sts. Peter & Paul Sabres 5 2 3 10 Victor Kleppinger '25
Gabby Beckett '28
Washington Liberty High School Washington Liberty High School Washington Liberty 4 5 5 14 Dylan Jacobson '28
Alexandria Hou '29
Kent Island High School Kent Island High School Buccaneers 6 4 4 14 Henry Macmillan '26
Grayson Colvin '27
Gunston Gunston Herons 2 DNS DNS 20 Lizzy Chiochetti '27
Ella Von Voss '28
St. Mary's Ryken St. Mary's Ryken Knights DNS DNS DNS 27 Bryeden Rapp '27
Tejas Suri '28
Washington Latin Washington Latin Lions DNF DNS DNS 27 Mercer Rensberger '28
Karina Schmoyer '29
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 TOT Sailors
Severn School Severn School Admirals 1 1 1 3 Will Tweed '28
Jack Lever-Farino '25
Walt Whitman High School Walt Whitman High School Vikings 3 2 2 7 James Stahl '27
Owen Garland '27
Sts. Peter & Paul Sts. Peter & Paul Sabres 2 3 3 8 Gene Williams '29
Ian Cox '29
Kent Island High School Kent Island High School Buccaneers 4 5 5 14 Andrew Lavoie '27
Ben Billets '27
Gunston Gunston Herons DSQ 4 4 17 Denis Hein '26
Tiago Paul '27
Washington Liberty High School Washington Liberty High School Washington Liberty DNS DNS DNS 27 Madeline Cook '27
Sophia Lenzner '27
St. Mary's Ryken St. Mary's Ryken Knights DNS DNS DNS 27 Alex Dusterwald '27
Georgia Mudd '26
Washington Latin Washington Latin Lions DNS DNS DNS 27 Eliana Arteaga '29
Kailash Hsu '30
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.120+0.12
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2017 (25 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A
Kent Island High SchoolKent Island High School Buccaneers224
Sts. Peter & PaulSts. Peter & Paul Sabres557
Severn SchoolSevern School Admirals335
St. Mary's RykenSt. Mary's Ryken Knights446
GunstonGunston Herons113
Walt Whitman High SchoolWalt Whitman High School Vikings668
Washington LatinWashington Latin Lions771
Washington Liberty High SchoolWashington Liberty High School Washington Liberty882

Division B

Team1B2B3B
Kent Island High SchoolKent Island High School Buccaneers335
Sts. Peter & PaulSts. Peter & Paul Sabres668
Severn SchoolSevern School Admirals446
St. Mary's RykenSt. Mary's Ryken Knights557
GunstonGunston Herons224
Walt Whitman High SchoolWalt Whitman High School Vikings771
Washington LatinWashington Latin Lions882
Washington Liberty High SchoolWashington Liberty High School Washington Liberty113

Conditions — 04/27/2025 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 37%  ·  Pressure 1019.6 hPa

Temperature

61°F
↑ 68°F   ↓ 51°F
Feels like 51°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
16.9 kn
avg  ·  max 20.7 kn
Gusts to 41.2 kn
From NW (314°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover3% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity37% Pressure1019.6 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NW 20 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Kent Island: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.55)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.10 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.65
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.32 ± 0.38)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.55 means a rating gap counts about 48% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Kent Island by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 6 labelled days at Kent Island, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →