Severn School '29
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.98 (fleet 3.29) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.05 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 11–7 (61%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 | 1 | 10–4 | — |
| Fall 2025 | 1 | 1–3 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (18 matches) the record is 11–7 against 12.7 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.7). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-11 | MDISA Team Race | skipper | 2.23 | 1.18 | 10–4 | 11.1 | −1.05 | 0.7 | 93% |
| 2025-10-05 | MDISA Team Race Qualifier | skipper | 2.12 | 0.92 | 1–3 | 1.6 | −1.20 | 0.4 | 92% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 Team page Season | |||||
| MDISA WRSC Spring 2026 Fleet Tier 2 | Skipper | B | 8 | 1.4 | 2.91 |
| MDISA Championship Tier 2 | Skipper | A | 5 | 1.0 | — |
| MDISA Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 71% | — |
| MDISA BCSC Tier 2 May Flowers Regatta | Skipper | B | 3 | 1.0 | — |
| Fall 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| MDISA TAYC T2 Fleet | Skipper | B | 3 | 1.3 | 1.25 |
| MDISA Team Race Qualifier | Skipper | TR | 6 | 50% | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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