Severn School '28
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.85 (fleet 3.08) | 57 of 231 | −0.06 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 22–8 (73%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 | 1 | 10–4 | — |
| Fall 2025 | 1 | 3–3 | — |
| Spring 2025 | 1 | 9–1 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (30 matches) the record is 22–8 against 23.4 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.4). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-11 | MDISA Team Race | skipper | 2.13 | 1.08 | 10–4 | 11.1 | −1.05 | 0.7 | 93% |
| 2025-10-05 | MDISA Team Race Qualifier | skipper | 2.01 | 1.89 | 3–3 | 3.1 | −0.11 | 0.0 | 73% |
| 2025-03-22 | MDISA SSA Team Race | skipper | 2.03 | 1.78 | 9–1 | 9.2 | −0.25 | 0.0 | 80% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 Team page Season | |||||
| MDISA TAYC Fleet Tier 1 | Skipper | A | 5 | 3.0 | 3.10 |
| MDISA Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 71% | — |
| 2026 ISSA Phebe Corckran King Memorial Trophy | Skipper | A | 13 | 7.0 | 3.10 |
| MASSA 2026 Invitational Fleet Regatta | Skipper | A | 12 | 2.4 | 3.18 |
| Fall 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| MDISA Team Race Qualifier | Skipper | TR | 6 | 50% | — |
| MDISA SSA Fleet Race | Skipper | B | 3 | 1.0 | — |
| Spring 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| MDISA SSA Team Race | Skipper | TR | 9 | 100% | — |
| MDISA DC Sail T1 Fleet Race | Skipper | A | 4 | 3.8 | 2.33 |
| 2025 T1 Fleet Championship | Skipper | B | 5 | 2.4 | 3.15 |
| Fall 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| MDISA SCC Tier 1 Fleet Race | Skipper | B | 6 | 2.3 | 2.38 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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