MDISA DC Sail Spring '23 T2

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Key School Key School Zags 6 21 27
2 School Without Walls School Without Walls Varsity 24 8 32
3 Southern High School Southern High School Bulldogs 28 10 38
4 Annapolis High School Annapolis High School Panthers 20 22 42
5 Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Bruins 27 33 60
6 Patuxent Patuxent Panthers 28 36 64
7 Severna Park Severna Park Falcons 35 30 65
8 South River High School South River High School Seahawks 27 38 65
9 Indian Creek School Indian Creek School Eagles 47 31 78
10 Walt Whitman High School Walt Whitman High School Vikings 33 46 79
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
Key School Key School Zags 1 1 1 2 1 6 Antoine Ismael '25
Ben Coster '31
Annapolis High School Annapolis High School Panthers 7 6 2 3 2 20 James Ronayne '24
Gemma Love '25
School Without Walls School Without Walls Varsity 3 5 5 5 6 24 Emmett Nash '28 [1-2, 5]
Eli Cummins '27 [3-4]
Chi Chi Chao '27 [1-2]
Malory Kroeger '24 [3-4]
Lila Gottenberg '25 [5]
Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Bruins 2 7 3 7 8 27 Erin Lawlor '26 [1-2, 5]
Robbie Wilmer '24 [3-4]
Felicia Gomoljak '26 [1-2, 5]
Wyatt Hinsch '25 [3-4]
South River High School South River High School Seahawks 9 3 6 6 3 27 Fiona O'Rourke '28 [1-5]
Keely Flynn '25 [1-4]
Naomi Schrader '24 [5]
Southern High School Southern High School Bulldogs 4 4 8 8 4 28 Maggie Dowling '27 [1-5]
Carter Steiert '27 [1-4]
Naomi Schrader '24 [5]
Patuxent Patuxent Panthers 6 2 9 4 7 28 Thomas Birchfield '27
Ricardo Shayer '25
Walt Whitman High School Walt Whitman High School Vikings 10 10 7 1 5 33 Marco Gessner Pilotto '25
Sara Corbett '25
Severna Park Severna Park Falcons 5 8 4 9 9 35 Ella Bowen '23
Alexandria Still '27
Indian Creek School Indian Creek School Eagles 8 9 10 10 10 47 Barrett Mouritzen '23
Ryan Mills '27
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
School Without Walls School Without Walls Varsity 1 1 2 2 2 8 Amory Smith '26 [1-5]
Georgia Neaderland '26 [1-4]
Henry Yang '27 [5]
Southern High School Southern High School Bulldogs 3 2 1 1 3 10 Michael Grube '24 [1-5]
Finn Dwyer '26 [1-2, 5]
Harry Mcmahon '25 [3-4]
Key School Key School Zags 6 5 3 3 4 21 Mary Hayes Cobbum '27
Elizabeth Roesch '27
Annapolis High School Annapolis High School Panthers 2 3 8 8 1 22 Henry Meyer '25
Robert Bauer '26
Severna Park Severna Park Falcons 5 4 9 7 5 30 Pierce Brenner '25 [1-3]
Spencer Aubel '26 [4-5]
Henry Carlson '25 [1-3]
Bret Boeskin '23 [4-5]
Indian Creek School Indian Creek School Eagles 4 6 5 6 10 31 Arabelle Gemmell '25
Owen Crum '27
Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Bruins 7 10 4 4 8 33 Abigail Burritt '25
Andrea Runk '24
Patuxent Patuxent Panthers 9 9 6 5 7 36 Joseph Dibonaventuro '26
Nolan Wingate '28
South River High School South River High School Seahawks 8 8 7 9 6 38 Lily Moss '25 [1-5]
Rory Campbell '28 [1-2, 5]
Lincoln Ditchkofsky-Hartge '26 [3-4]
Walt Whitman High School Walt Whitman High School Vikings 10 7 10 10 9 46 Deniz Ayhan '24
Grace Shields '25
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.130+0.13
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2023 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A
Annapolis High SchoolAnnapolis High School Panthers11335
Broadneck High SchoolBroadneck High School Bruins22446
Indian Creek SchoolIndian Creek School Eagles33557
Key SchoolKey School Zags44668
PatuxentPatuxent Panthers55779
Severna ParkSeverna Park Falcons77991
South River High SchoolSouth River High School Seahawks8810102
Southern High SchoolSouthern High School Bulldogs99113
Walt Whitman High SchoolWalt Whitman High School Vikings1010224
School Without WallsSchool Without Walls Varsity668810

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B
Annapolis High SchoolAnnapolis High School Panthers22446
Broadneck High SchoolBroadneck High School Bruins33557
Indian Creek SchoolIndian Creek School Eagles44668
Key SchoolKey School Zags55779
PatuxentPatuxent Panthers668810
Severna ParkSeverna Park Falcons8810102
South River High SchoolSouth River High School Seahawks99113
Southern High SchoolSouthern High School Bulldogs1010224
Walt Whitman High SchoolWalt Whitman High School Vikings11335
School Without WallsSchool Without Walls Varsity77991

Conditions — 04/15/2023 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle
Humidity 74%  ·  Pressure 1011.0 hPa

Temperature

70°F
↑ 77°F   ↓ 64°F
Feels like 72°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
3.5 kn
avg  ·  max 8.1 kn
Gusts to 18.9 kn
From SW (222°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover97% Sunshine7.4 hrs Humidity74% Pressure1011.0 hPa Rain0.14 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 6 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Walt Whitman: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.10)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.14 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.04
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.21 ± 0.21)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.10 means a rating gap counts about 9% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Walt Whitman by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 1 labelled days at Walt Whitman, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →