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MDISA BCSC Tier 2 Regatta

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Key School Key School Zags 7 20 27
2 Annapolis High School Annapolis High School Panthers 6 22 28
3 School Without Walls School Without Walls Varsity 25 13 38
4 Rockbridge Academy Rockbridge Academy Scots 16 24 40
5 Patuxent Patuxent Panthers 31 15 46
6 Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Raiders 34 15 49
7 Southern High School Southern High School Bulldogs 23 30 53
8 Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Hornets 22 36 58
9 Walt Whitman High School Walt Whitman High School Vikings 43 22 65
10 St. Mary's High School (MD) St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints 32 40 72
11 Calvert Hall College High School Calvert Hall College High School Cardinals 36 38 74
12 South River High School South River High School Seahawks 38 37 75
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Annapolis High School Annapolis High School Panthers 1 2 2 1 6 James Ronayne '24
Gemma Love '25
Key School Key School Zags 2 1 1 3 7 Antoine Ismael '25
Gaetan Ismael '23
Rockbridge Academy Rockbridge Academy Scots 3 3 5 5 16 Michael Grube '24 [1-4]
Finn Dwyer '26 [1-2]
Jack Crutchley '26 [3-4]
Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Hornets 5 5 10 2 22 Maria Mercier '25
Ellis Thompson '23
Southern High School Southern High School Bulldogs 6 6 7 4 23 Maggie Dowling '27
Keely Flynn '25
School Without Walls School Without Walls Varsity 7 4 4 10 25 Emmett Nash '28 [1-2, 4]
Eli Cummins '27 [3]
Chi Chi Chao '27 [1-2, 4]
Patuxent Patuxent Panthers 8 9 3 11 31 Nolan Wingate '28 [1-2]
Clara Wilson '25 [3-4]
Thomas Birchfield '27 [1-2]
Joseph Dibonaventuro '26 [3-4]
St. Mary's High School (MD) St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints 9 10 6 7 32 James Chapman '27
Barrett Mouritzen '23
Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Raiders 4 7 11 12 34 Timothy Berman '23
Glynis Rossi '23
Calvert Hall College High School Calvert Hall College High School Cardinals 10 11 9 6 36 Henry Wolff '24 [1-2]
Jake Crandall '23 [3-4]
Thomas Pedersen '24 [1-2]
Alexander "Jack" Salim '24 [3]
Marcus Kozlowski '26 [4]
South River High School South River High School Seahawks DSQ 8 8 9 38 Fiona O'Rourke '28
Carter Steiert '27
Walt Whitman High School Walt Whitman High School Vikings 11 12 12 8 43 Marco Gessner Pilotto '25 [1-4]
Sara Corbett '25 [1-2, 4]
Sebastian Yurcisin '25 [3]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
School Without Walls School Without Walls Varsity 6 1 4 2 13 Amory Smith '26
Georgia Neaderland '26
Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Raiders 3 6 3 3 15 Everett Moulds '26
Jared Werner '25
Patuxent Patuxent Panthers 4 9 1 1 15 Grace Wilson '23 [1-2]
Thomas Birchfield '27 [3-4]
Freyja Raines '27 [1-2]
Nolan Wingate '28 [3-4]
Key School Key School Zags 2 8 6 4 20 Mary Hayes Cobbum '27 [1-2]
Ana Fishback '27 [3-4]
Ben Coster '31 [1-2]
Annapolis High School Annapolis High School Panthers 1 2 9 10 22 Connor Lamm-Knipscher '23
Robert Bauer '26
Walt Whitman High School Walt Whitman High School Vikings 9 5 2 6 22 Shane Churilla '25 [1-4]
Grace Shields '25 [1-2]
Ricardo Shayer '25 [3-4]
Rockbridge Academy Rockbridge Academy Scots 5 3 7 9 24 Hayden Medick '26 [1-4]
Zen Corby '26 [1-3]
Lincoln Ditchkofsky-Hartge '26 [4]
Southern High School Southern High School Bulldogs 8 4 11 7 30 Lily Moss '25 [1-4]
Annika Fisher '25 [1-3]
Melissa Fletcher '24 [4]
Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Hornets 11 10 10 5 36 Allie Clark '26
Owen Smith '26
South River High School South River High School Seahawks 10 11 8 8 37 Clara Neeland '26
Everett Barker '25
Calvert Hall College High School Calvert Hall College High School Cardinals 7 7 12 12 38 Theodore Jones '24 [1-2]
James Cozzens '24 [3-4]
Will Nelson '26 [1-2]
Grant Pawley '23 [3-4]
St. Mary's High School (MD) St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints 12 12 5 11 40 Jakub D'Andrade '26
Abigail Jones '26
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.060+0.06
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2017 (12 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A
Annapolis High SchoolAnnapolis High School Panthers3355
Calvert Hall College High SchoolCalvert Hall College High School Cardinals4466
Great Mills High SchoolGreat Mills High School Hornets6688
Key SchoolKey School Zags7799
Leonardtown High SchoolLeonardtown High School Raiders881010
PatuxentPatuxent Panthers10101212
Rockbridge AcademyRockbridge Academy Scots11111313
South River High SchoolSouth River High School Seahawks13131515
Southern High SchoolSouthern High School Bulldogs14141616
St. Mary's High School (MD)St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints15151717
Walt Whitman High SchoolWalt Whitman High School Vikings171744
School Without WallsSchool Without Walls Varsity12121414

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B
Annapolis High SchoolAnnapolis High School Panthers4466
Calvert Hall College High SchoolCalvert Hall College High School Cardinals5577
Great Mills High SchoolGreat Mills High School Hornets7799
Key SchoolKey School Zags881010
Leonardtown High SchoolLeonardtown High School Raiders991111
PatuxentPatuxent Panthers11111313
Rockbridge AcademyRockbridge Academy Scots12121414
South River High SchoolSouth River High School Seahawks14141616
Southern High SchoolSouthern High School Bulldogs15151717
St. Mary's High School (MD)St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints161633
Walt Whitman High SchoolWalt Whitman High School Vikings3355
School Without WallsSchool Without Walls Varsity13131515
School / Team SkipperCrew
Annapolis High School Annapolis High School James Ronayne '24 Gemma Love '25
Panthers Connor Lamm-Knipscher '23 Robert Bauer '26
Calvert Hall College High School Calvert Hall College High School Henry Wolff '24 [1-2]
Jake Crandall '23 [3-4]		 Thomas Pedersen '24 [1-2]
Alexander "Jack" Salim '24 [3]
Marcus Kozlowski '26 [4]
Cardinals Theodore Jones '24 [1-2]
James Cozzens '24 [3-4]		 Will Nelson '26 [1-2]
Grant Pawley '23 [3-4]
Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Maria Mercier '25 Ellis Thompson '23
Hornets Allie Clark '26 Owen Smith '26
Key School Key School Antoine Ismael '25 Gaetan Ismael '23
Zags Mary Hayes Cobbum '27 [1-2]
Ana Fishback '27 [3-4]		 Ben Coster '31 [1-2]
Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Timothy Berman '23 Glynis Rossi '23
Raiders Everett Moulds '26 Jared Werner '25
Patuxent Patuxent Nolan Wingate '28 [1-2]
Clara Wilson '25 [3-4]		 Thomas Birchfield '27 [1-2]
Joseph Dibonaventuro '26 [3-4]
Panthers Grace Wilson '23 [1-2]
Thomas Birchfield '27 [3-4]		 Freyja Raines '27 [1-2]
Nolan Wingate '28 [3-4]
Rockbridge Academy Rockbridge Academy Michael Grube '24 [1-4] Finn Dwyer '26 [1-2]
Jack Crutchley '26 [3-4]
Scots Hayden Medick '26 [1-4] Zen Corby '26 [1-3]
Lincoln Ditchkofsky-Hartge '26 [4]
School Without Walls School Without Walls Emmett Nash '28 [1-2, 4]
Eli Cummins '27 [3]		 Chi Chi Chao '27 [1-2, 4]
Varsity Amory Smith '26 Georgia Neaderland '26
South River High School South River High School Fiona O'Rourke '28 Carter Steiert '27
Seahawks Clara Neeland '26 Everett Barker '25
Southern High School Southern High School Maggie Dowling '27 Keely Flynn '25
Bulldogs Lily Moss '25 [1-4] Annika Fisher '25 [1-3]
Melissa Fletcher '24 [4]
St. Mary's High School (MD) St. Mary's High School (MD) James Chapman '27 Barrett Mouritzen '23
Saints Jakub D'Andrade '26 Abigail Jones '26
Walt Whitman High School Walt Whitman High School Marco Gessner Pilotto '25 [1-4] Sara Corbett '25 [1-2, 4]
Sebastian Yurcisin '25 [3]
Vikings Shane Churilla '25 [1-4] Grace Shields '25 [1-2]
Ricardo Shayer '25 [3-4]

Conditions — 05/13/2023 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle
Humidity 88%  ·  Pressure 1018.0 hPa

Temperature

67°F
↑ 68°F   ↓ 66°F
Feels like 70°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
3.7 kn
avg  ·  max 7.0 kn
Gusts to 13.2 kn
From NNW (344°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine0.0 hrs Humidity88% Pressure1018.0 hPa Rain0.34 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NE 4 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Baltimore County Sailing Center: a favourites’ day (+0.09)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.11 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.21
Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.74 ± 0.25)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.09 means a rating gap counts about 8% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Baltimore County Sailing Center by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 11 labelled days at Baltimore County Sailing Center, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →