New Trier HS '27
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.33 (fleet 0.51) | 214 of 231 | +0.01 ± 0.16 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 34–20 (63%) as crew 1–2 (33%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 | 4 | 32–19 | 1–2 |
| Spring 2025 | 1 | 2–1 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 6 graded regattas (57 matches) the record is 35–22 against 34.4 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+0.6). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 5 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | National Invitational Tournament (Founders Trophy) | skipper | 0.68 | -0.34 | 8–8 | 10.4 | −1.02 | 1.4 | 96% |
| 2026-05-09 | LF Team Race Spray | skipper | 0.63 | 3.63 | 3–0 | 2.7 | ≥+3.00 | 0.5 | 68% |
| 2026-05-09 | LF Team Race Spray | crew | 0.63 | 1.36 | 1–2 | 0.7 | +0.73 | 0.1 | 57% |
| 2026-04-25 | 2026 MISSA Baker Championship | skipper | 0.66 | 0.75 | 17–11 | 16.6 | +0.10 | 0.0 | 52% |
| 2026-04-11 | MISSA SW Baker Pre-Qualifier | skipper | 0.61 | 3.61 | 4–0 | 2.8 | ≥+3.00 | 2.0 | 20% |
| 2025-05-17 | National Invitational Tournament | skipper | 0.70 | 2.10 | 2–1 | 1.2 | +1.39 | 0.6 | 37% |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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