Sheridan Shore Tier 3, 1-day

HostBeacon Academy/Evanston Township HS/Glenbrook South/Loyola Academy
Date09/30/2023
TypePromotional
BoatC420
Scoring1 Division

#	School	Team	A	TOT
1	Lake Forest High School	Scouts 2	8	8
2	Beacon Academy	Trailblazers 1	26	26
3	Lake Forest High School	Scouts 1	26	26
4	Beacon Academy	Trailblazers 2	28	28
5	Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL	Wolfpack 2	38	38
6	New Trier HS	Trevian 2	40	40
7	New Trier HS	Trevian 1	43	43
8	Lycee Francais de Chicago	Lycee Francais 1	48 MRP	48 MRP
9	DePaul College Prep	Varsity	48	48
10	Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL	Wolfpack 1	50	50
11	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	Mixed	51	51
12	Lycee Francais de Chicago	Lycee Francais 2	58 MRP	58 MRP
13	Evanston Township HS	Wildkits 1	62	62
14	Loyola Academy	Ramblers 1	65	65
15	Loyola Academy	Ramblers 2	66	66
16	Evanston Township HS	Wildkits 2	66	66

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	TOT	Sailors
Lake Forest High School	Scouts 2	2	1	1	3	1	8	Mia Brandt '28 [1-4] Jack Carter '28 [5] Sean Carroll '27 [1-3, 5] Jack Carter '28 [4]
Beacon Academy	Trailblazers 1	1	2	4	OCS	2	26	No Show Griffin Mcdill '25
Lake Forest High School	Scouts 1	10	9	3	1	3	26	Avery Keane '27 [1-3] Ranya Patel '27 [4-5] Jeffrey Chang '28 [1-3] Avery Keane '27 [4-5]
Beacon Academy	Trailblazers 2	4	4	10	5	5	28	Matthew Ward '27 [1-5] No Show [1-2, 5] Ally Morrill-Mcquisto '26 [3-4]
Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL	Wolfpack 2	8	11	9	4	6	38	Cate Baldwin '28 [1, 3, 5] Frankie Ryba '27 [2, 4] Frankie Ryba '27 [1, 3, 5] Cate Baldwin '28 [2, 4]
New Trier HS	Trevian 2	7	10	6	10	7	40	William Pilant '27 Amalia Lesterhuis '27
New Trier HS	Trevian 1	14	12	7	6	4	43	Lillian Lipford '24 [1-2] Ralph Lipford '27 [3-5] Ava Pankauskas '24 [1-2] Madeline Cirrincione '26 [3-5]
Lycee Francais de Chicago	Lycee Francais 1	3	3	5	7	10	48 MRP	No Show No Show
DePaul College Prep	Varsity	5	7	15	9	12	48	Alexander Faber '28 [1-2] Charlie Herman '24 [3-4] Ronan Binney '27 [5] Zoe Pileggi '25 [1-2] Jack Markuson '27 [3-5]
Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL	Wolfpack 1	15	16	8	2	9	50	Gracie Kiergan '26 [1-2] Molly Kiergan '26 [3-5] Sophia Castrejon '26 [1-2]
Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	Mixed	11	6	11	8	15	51	Jaden Reznick '26 [1-4] Benjamin Castro-Matthews '26 [5] Benjamin Castro-Matthews '26 [1-4] Jaden Reznick '26 [5]
Lycee Francais de Chicago	Lycee Francais 2	6	5	2	OCS	8	58 MRP	No Show No Show
Evanston Township HS	Wildkits 1	9	13	14	13	13	62	Liam Kipnis '27 [1-5] Clare Styslinger '25 [1-2, 5] Arielle Buzil '24 [3-4]
Loyola Academy	Ramblers 1	13	8	16	14	14	65	Johnny Wallach '27 [1-2] Joseph Lattanzio '25 [3-5] Coady Klein '27 [1-2, 5] Johnny Wallach '27 [3-4]
Loyola Academy	Ramblers 2	12	15	12	11	16	66	Anton Johnson '23 Gianna Scandariato '27
Evanston Township HS	Wildkits 2	16	14	13	12	11	66	Ty Nedoss '26 [1-5] Nolan Graham '28 [1-2] No Show [3-5]

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.150+0.15

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2021 (13 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A
Beacon Academy Trailblazers 1	1	1	1	1	1
Beacon Academy Trailblazers 2	2	2	2	2	2
DePaul College Prep Varsity	3	3	3	3	3
Evanston Township HS Wildkits 1	4	4	4	4	4
Evanston Township HS Wildkits 2	5	5	5	5	5
Lake Forest High School Scouts 1	6	6	6	6	6
Lake Forest High School Scouts 2	7	7	7	7	7
Loyola Academy Ramblers 1	8	8	8	8	8
Loyola Academy Ramblers 2	9	9	9	9	9
Lycee Francais de Chicago Lycee Francais 1	10	10	10	10	10
Lycee Francais de Chicago Lycee Francais 2	13	13	13	13	13
New Trier HS Trevian 1	16	16	16	16	16
New Trier HS Trevian 2	17	17	17	17	17
Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Wolfpack 1	18	18	18	18	18
Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Wolfpack 2	19	19	19	19	19
Walter Payton College Preparatory High School Mixed	22	22	22	22	22

School	Team	Skipper	Crew
Beacon Academy	Trailblazers 1	No Show	Griffin Mcdill '25
Beacon Academy	Trailblazers 2	Matthew Ward '27 [1-5]	No Show [1-2, 5] Ally Morrill-Mcquisto '26 [3-4]
DePaul College Prep	Varsity	Alexander Faber '28 [1-2] Charlie Herman '24 [3-4] Ronan Binney '27 [5]	Zoe Pileggi '25 [1-2] Jack Markuson '27 [3-5]
Evanston Township HS	Wildkits 1	Liam Kipnis '27 [1-5]	Clare Styslinger '25 [1-2, 5] Arielle Buzil '24 [3-4]
Evanston Township HS	Wildkits 2	Ty Nedoss '26 [1-5]	Nolan Graham '28 [1-2] No Show [3-5]
Lake Forest High School	Scouts 1	Avery Keane '27 [1-3] Ranya Patel '27 [4-5]	Jeffrey Chang '28 [1-3] Avery Keane '27 [4-5]
Lake Forest High School	Scouts 2	Mia Brandt '28 [1-4] Jack Carter '28 [5]	Sean Carroll '27 [1-3, 5] Jack Carter '28 [4]
Loyola Academy	Ramblers 1	Johnny Wallach '27 [1-2] Joseph Lattanzio '25 [3-5]	Coady Klein '27 [1-2, 5] Johnny Wallach '27 [3-4]
Loyola Academy	Ramblers 2	Anton Johnson '23	Gianna Scandariato '27
Lycee Francais de Chicago	Lycee Francais 1	No Show	No Show
Lycee Francais de Chicago	Lycee Francais 2	No Show	No Show
New Trier HS	Trevian 1	Lillian Lipford '24 [1-2] Ralph Lipford '27 [3-5]	Ava Pankauskas '24 [1-2] Madeline Cirrincione '26 [3-5]
New Trier HS	Trevian 2	William Pilant '27	Amalia Lesterhuis '27
Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL	Wolfpack 1	Gracie Kiergan '26 [1-2] Molly Kiergan '26 [3-5]	Sophia Castrejon '26 [1-2]
Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL	Wolfpack 2	Cate Baldwin '28 [1, 3, 5] Frankie Ryba '27 [2, 4]	Frankie Ryba '27 [1, 3, 5] Cate Baldwin '28 [2, 4]
Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	Mixed	Jaden Reznick '26 [1-4] Benjamin Castro-Matthews '26 [5]	Benjamin Castro-Matthews '26 [1-4] Jaden Reznick '26 [5]

Conditions — 09/30/2023 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 74% · Pressure 1022.8 hPa

Temperature

73°F

↑ 77°F ↓ 62°F

Feels like 75°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

6.3 kn

avg · max 8.1 kn

Gusts to 17.5 kn

From SSE (149°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover0% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity74% Pressure1022.8 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SE 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In this breeze at Beacon Academy/Evanston Township HS/Glenbrook South/Loyola Academy: a typical day (−0.01)

Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.

Fleet adjustment +0.18 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.17

Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.61 ± 0.25)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Beacon Academy/Evanston Township HS/Glenbrook South/Loyola Academy by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 8 labelled days at Beacon Academy/Evanston Township HS/Glenbrook South/Loyola Academy, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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