Lake Forest High School '27
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 10.45 percentile among ISSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.114 rating points from 22 races with rated skippers. Few races, so the estimate stays near the middle.
How crew ratings work →Includes linked high school and college seasons.
| Season | Team | Rating | Range | League percentile |
Team percentile |
On team | Races | Team page |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 | Lake Forest College | 0.82 | 60.10 | 12.50 | 4 of 4 | 13 | Team page |
Each discipline has its own scale, built from the sailor's main rating and their results in that discipline. The numbers are not comparable with the main rating or with each other.
How these ratings work →| Discipline | Rating | Rank | Races | Last raced |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Singlehanded | 0.99 | 179 of 337 | 12 | Fall 2024 |
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.76 (fleet 1.31) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.05 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 3–6 (33%) as crew 10–9 (53%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 | 2 | 3–6 | 10–9 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (26 matches) the record is 11–15 against 14.0 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−3.0). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 3 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | 2026 MISSA Baker Championship | skipper | 0.34 | -1.51 | 2–6 | 4.6 | −1.85 | 2.6 | 99% |
| 2026-04-25 | 2026 MISSA Baker Championship | crew | 0.34 | 0.19 | 9–9 | 9.4 | −0.15 | 0.0 | 68% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 Team page Season | |||||
| MISSA SW Mallory Pre-Qualifier | Crew | A, B | 6 | 4.3 | -0.41 |
| MISSA SW Baker Pre-Qualifier | Skipper | TR | 5 | 80% | — |
| MISSA Mallory Qualifier 2026 | Crew | A | 9 | 8.0 | -0.85 |
| 2026 MISSA Baker Championship | Crew | TR | 28 | 46% | — |
| Fall 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| MISSA Girls Championship | Skipper | A | 8 | 5.6 | 0.87 |
| MISSA Cressy (ILCA 6 Girls) Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 12 | 6.8 | 0.80 |
| Kick Off Classic | Skipper | A | 6 | 7.5 | 0.95 |
| 2024 ISSA-PCISA National All Girls Invitational | Skipper | A | 9 | 20.4 | -0.15 |
| Spring 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| CYC 2024 MISSA Icebreaker | Skipper | B | 5 | 3.0 | 2.21 |
| April 13 Tier 3 Regatta | Skipper | A | 9 | 3.1 | 1.94 |
| Fall 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| Tier 3 | Skipper | A | 2 | 5.5 | 0.92 |
| Sheridan Shore Tier 3, 1-day | Skipper | A | 5 | 5.2 | 0.23 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Avery Keane |  Pewaukee High School |
'27 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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