| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
New Trier HS | Trevian | 5–0 |
| 2 |  |
Lake Forest High School | Scouts | 4–1 |
| 3 |  |
Jones College Prep | Eagles | 3–2 |
| 4 |  |
Walter Payton College Preparatory High School | Grizzlies | 2–3 |
| 5 |  |
Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL | Wolfpack | 1–4 |
| 6 |  |
Loyola Academy | Ramblers | 0–5 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 13,107 team race matches sailed before 2026-04-11, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 13 of 15 matches (87%) with a log-loss of 0.299 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.61 ± 0.58: an orderly event, more orderly than 86% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New Trier HS | 4.61 | 7.61 | 5–0 | 3.7 | ≥+3.00 | 2.1 | 18% |
| 2 | Lake Forest High School | 4.47 | 5.11 | 4–1 | 3.6 | +0.65 | 0.1 | 57% |
| 4 | Walter Payton College Preparatory High School | 2.41 | 2.63 | 2–3 | 1.9 | +0.21 | 0.0 | 66% |
| 5 | Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL | 1.39 | 1.32 | 1–4 | 1.0 | −0.07 | 0.0 | 73% |
| 3 | Jones College Prep | 4.70 | 3.55 | 3–2 | 3.7 | −1.15 | 0.5 | 93% |
| 6 | Loyola Academy | 1.38 | -1.62 | 0–5 | 1.0 | ≤−3.00 | 1.6 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Scouts | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Wolfpack | 3-4-5 |
| 2 | |
Trevian | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Grizzlies | 3-4-5 |
| 3 | |
Eagles | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Ramblers | 3-4-6 |
| 4 | |
Trevian | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Scouts | 3-4-6 |
| 5 | |
Wolfpack | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Ramblers | 3-4-5 |
| 6 | |
Eagles | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Grizzlies | 3-4-5 |
| 7 | |
Eagles | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Wolfpack | 3-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Scouts | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Grizzlies | 3-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Trevian | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Ramblers | 3-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Scouts | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Eagles | 3-4-6 |
| 11 | |
Trevian | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Wolfpack | 3-4-6 |
| 12 | |
Grizzlies | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Ramblers | 1-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Grizzlies | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Wolfpack | 3-4-5 |
| 14 | |
Scouts | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Ramblers | 4-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Trevian | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Eagles | 3-4-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
New Trier HS | Trevian | Aiala Angueira Salbidegoitia '26 Mason Allen '29 Nathan Finkelstein '26 Ralph Lipford '27 |
Chloe Lemonds '27 Bennett Waters '26 Camila Benes '26 |
|
Lake Forest High School | Scouts | Avery Keane '27 Maddie Rode '26 Mason Keane '28 Woods Moorhead '29 |
Woods Moorhead '29 Vivienne Kelly '27 Tullis Mengelkoch '28 Livi Lagattolla '28 Avery Keane '27 |
|
Jones College Prep | Eagles | Duke Diep '27 Nissa Berman '26 Quinn Frakt '27 |
Patrick Melhado '29 Jack Eskilson '28 Sarah Kaplan '27 |
|
Walter Payton College Preparatory High School | Grizzlies | Henry Chen '26 Jaden Reznick '26 Lake Linebaugh '26 |
Lauren Lam '26 Gyu-Rim Ban '29 Joel Lauve '28 |
|
Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL | Wolfpack | Cate Baldwin '28 Finn Connolly '26 Gracie Kiergan '26 Jack Shuttleworth '29 |
Juliet Townsend '28 Clare Anderson '28 Lauren Tecson '28 |
|
Loyola Academy | Ramblers | Ana Bradley '26 Anton Johnson '29 Bleu Strnad '26 |
Gianna Scandariato '27 Logan Glazier-Ballog '27 Abigail Lee '29 Laura Koszeghy '26 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
