Lake Forest High School '28
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.12 | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as crew 16–19 (46%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 | 3 | — | 16–19 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (35 matches) the record is 16–19 against 20.9 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−4.9). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 5 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | LF Team Race Spray | crew | 0.68 | -2.32 | 0–3 | 1.7 | ≤−3.00 | 3.5 | >99% |
| 2026-04-25 | 2026 MISSA Baker Championship | crew | 1.91 | 1.13 | 13–15 | 16.2 | −0.78 | 1.4 | 95% |
| 2026-04-11 | MISSA SW Baker Pre-Qualifier | crew | 0.21 | 0.06 | 3–1 | 3.1 | −0.15 | 0.0 | 79% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 Team page Season | |||||
| MISSA SW Baker Pre-Qualifier | Crew | TR | 5 | 80% | — |
| LF Team Race Spray | Crew | TR | 3 | 0% | — |
| Lake Forest May Madness | Crew | A | 3 | 3.7 | -0.09 |
| 2026 MISSA Baker Championship | Crew | TR | 28 | 46% | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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