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2025 MISSA Keelboat Championship Blue

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 New Trier HS New Trier HS Trevian 5 5
2 Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Wolfpack 13 13
3 Spring Lake High School Spring Lake High School Red 13 13
4 Latin School of Chicago Latin School of Chicago Romans 14 14
5 Grosse Pointe South High School Grosse Pointe South High School Blue Devils 18 18
6 Walter Payton College Preparatory High School Walter Payton College Preparatory High School Grizzlies 21 21
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT
New Trier HS New Trier HS Trevian 2 1 1 1 5
Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Wolfpack 1 6 3 3 13
Spring Lake High School Spring Lake High School Red 4 2 5 2 13
Latin School of Chicago Latin School of Chicago Romans 3 5 2 4 14
Grosse Pointe South High School Grosse Pointe South High School Blue Devils 5 4 4 5 18
Walter Payton College Preparatory High School Walter Payton College Preparatory High School Grizzlies 6 3 6 6 21

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the keelboat rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.41 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 0.47); 0.28 × the mean fleet rating of the rated crew aboard; the skipper's own keelboat offset; the school's program effect. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 78 ISSA sailors with a keelboat rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The keelboat offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

Division A  6 boats · 4 races

FinSkipperSchool Races Rating
before		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.
1Nathan Finkelstein '26New Trier HS4/41.573.69+2.1194th → 99th3.47%1.2 / 2.7
2Finn Connolly '26Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL4/40.420.87+0.4533rd → 68th0.332%3.2 / 3.9
2Max Eggert '26Spring Lake High School4/41.031.08+0.0574th → 77th0.056%3.2 / 3.3
4Robert Danciu '27Latin School of Chicago4/40.381.07+0.6931st → 77th0.836%3.5 / 4.0
5Peter Horst '26Grosse Pointe South High School4/41.220.24−0.9888th → 19th2.294%4.5 / 3.0
6Jaden Reznick '26Walter Payton College Preparatory High School4/40.13-0.93−1.0612th → 1st1.086%5.2 / 4.2

Conditions — 11/01/2025 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Partly cloudy
Humidity 67%  ·  Pressure 1018.5 hPa

Temperature

47°F
↑ 49°F   ↓ 42°F
Feels like 42°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.2 kn
avg  ·  max 5.3 kn
Gusts to 14.2 kn
From W (264°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover73% Sunshine8.8 hrs Humidity67% Pressure1018.5 hPa

What this breeze does at DePaul College Prep/Latin of Chicago/New Trier HS/St. Ignatius (IL)/Walter Payton Colleg — from fleet racing

Breeze: W about 7 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at DePaul College Prep/Latin of Chicago/New Trier HS/St. Ignatius (IL)/Walter Payton Colleg in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.02)
Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at DePaul College Prep/Latin of Chicago/New Trier HS/St. Ignatius (IL)/Walter Payton Colleg by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 1 labelled days at DePaul College Prep/Latin of Chicago/New Trier HS/St. Ignatius (IL)/Walter Payton Colleg, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →