Barrington High School '28
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.70 (fleet 2.76) | 72 of 231 | +0.00 ± 0.16 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 42–26 (62%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 | 2 | 22–14 | — |
| Spring 2025 | 2 | 20–12 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 4 graded regattas (68 matches) the record is 42–26 against 41.9 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+0.1). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 3 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | National Invitational Tournament (Founders Trophy) | skipper | 1.98 | 2.78 | 13–3 | 11.6 | +0.80 | 0.6 | 29% |
| 2026-05-02 | 2026 NESSA Team Racing Champs (Presidents Trophy) | skipper | 1.81 | 1.93 | 9–11 | 8.7 | +0.12 | 0.0 | 53% |
| 2025-05-17 | National Invitational Tournament | skipper | 1.63 | 0.72 | 8–10 | 11.1 | −0.91 | 1.6 | 96% |
| 2025-05-03 | NESSA Team Racing Tournament (Terk Trophy) | skipper | 1.35 | 2.29 | 12–2 | 10.5 | +0.94 | 0.7 | 27% |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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