| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Christchurch School | Seahorses 1 | 9–1 |
| 2 | |
Christchurch School | Seahorses 2 | 7–3 |
| 3 |  |
Norfolk Academy | Bulldogs | 7–3 |
| 4 |  |
Hampton Roads Academy | Navigators | 5–5 |
| 5 |  |
Norfolk Collegiate School | Oaks | 2–5 |
| 6 | |
Christchurch School | Seahorses 3 | 2–5 |
| 7 |  |
Maury High School | Commodores | 1–6 |
| 8 |  |
Kecoughtan High School | Warriors | 1–6 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 11,837 team race matches sailed before 2025-04-05, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 9 of 9 matches (100%) with a log-loss of 0.229 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Christchurch School Seahorses 1 | 1 | 8.90 school +0.25 | Bo Angus / Simone Moss 3.18 Elliott Lipp / Suzie Nguyen 2.49 Wylder Smith / Malia Deane 2.96 | 88% | 5–0 (100%) | +0.6 |
| 3 | Norfolk Academy Bulldogs | 2 | 6.79 school +0.18 | James Allgeier / Sabrina Casagrande 3.23 Jack Poynter / Amanda Wong 1.63 Eliana Mopper / Anna Iacobucci 1.74 | 46% | 3–2 (60%) | +0.7 |
| 4 | Hampton Roads Academy Navigators | 3 | 6.40 school −0.38 | Leila Pfrang / Will Chapman 2.42 Charlie Moore / Nicholas Bielewicz 1.32 Parker Moore / Daphne Ambrosino 3.02 | 40% | 1–4 (20%) | −1.0 |
| 5 | Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks | 4 | 4.35 school −0.06 | Chase Duhon-Kovach / Finian Bohan 1.28 Alex Salzberg / Corrine Todd 1.32 0–2 Alex Salzberg / Jesse Hanenburg 1.28 0–1 Brandt Adams / Corrine Todd 2.09 0–1 Brandt Adams / Jesse Hanenburg 2.07 0–1 Jesse Hanenburg / Maddie Murphy 1.34 0–1 | 10% | 0–3 (0%) | −0.3 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Christchurch School Seahorses 1 | 8.90 | 11.90 | 5–0 | 4.4 | ≥+3.00 | 0.8 | 52% |
| 3 | Norfolk Academy Bulldogs | 6.79 | 7.77 | 3–2 | 2.3 | +0.99 | 0.4 | 42% |
| 4 | Hampton Roads Academy Navigators | 6.40 | 4.57 | 1–4 | 2.0 | −1.83 | 0.9 | 97% |
| 5 | Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks | 4.35 | 1.35 | 0–3 | 0.3 | ≤−3.00 | 0.4 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wylder Smith | Christchurch School | 2.96 | 5.96 | 5–0 | 4.4 | ≥+3.00 | 0.8 | 52% |
| Charlie Moore | Hampton Roads Academy | 1.32 | -0.50 | 1–4 | 2.0 | −1.83 | 0.9 | 97% |
| Alex Salzberg | Norfolk Collegiate School | 1.32 | -1.68 | 0–3 | 0.3 | ≤−3.00 | 0.4 | >99% |
| Chase Duhon-Kovach | Norfolk Collegiate School | 1.28 | -1.72 | 0–3 | 0.3 | ≤−3.00 | 0.4 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Rd | # | Winner | Loser | P(winner) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Norfolk Academy Bulldogs | Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks | 85% | ||
| 2 | Christchurch School Seahorses 1 | Hampton Roads Academy Navigators | 88% | ||
| 5 | Norfolk Academy Bulldogs | Hampton Roads Academy Navigators | 58% | ||
| 6 | Christchurch School Seahorses 1 | Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks | 97% | ||
| 9 | Hampton Roads Academy Navigators | Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks | 88% | ||
| 10 | Christchurch School Seahorses 1 | Norfolk Academy Bulldogs | 84% | ||
| 29 | Norfolk Academy Bulldogs | Hampton Roads Academy Navigators | 57% | ||
| 32 | Christchurch School Seahorses 1 | Hampton Roads Academy Navigators | 87% | ||
| 34 | Christchurch School Seahorses 1 | Norfolk Academy Bulldogs | 84% |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Oaks | 3-4-5 |
| 2 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Navigators | 3-4-6 |
| 3 | |
Commodores | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Warriors | 2-4-6 |
| 4 | |
Seahorses 2 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Seahorses 3 | 3-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Navigators | 4-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Oaks | 3-4-6 |
| 7 | |
Seahorses 3 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Commodores | 3-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Seahorses 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Warriors | 4-5-6 DNS |
| 9 | |
Navigators | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Oaks | 3-4-6 |
| 10 | |
Seahorses 1 | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 1-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Seahorses 3 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Warriors | 3-5-6 DNS |
| 12 | |
Seahorses 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Commodores | 4-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Oaks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Seahorses 3 | 4-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Seahorses 2 | 3-4-5 |
| 15 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Warriors | 4-5-6 DNS |
| 16 | |
Navigators | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Commodores | 4-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Seahorses 3 | 3-4-5 |
| 18 | |
Seahorses 1 | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Seahorses 2 | 1-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Navigators | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Warriors | 4-5-6 DNS |
| 20 | |
Oaks | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Commodores | 3-5-6 |
| 21 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Seahorses 3 | 3-4-6 |
| 22 | |
Navigators | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Seahorses 2 | 3-4-5 |
| 23 | |
Warriors | 1-4-6 | def. | |
Oaks | 2-3-5 DSQ |
| 24 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Commodores | 3-4-6 |
| 25 | |
Navigators | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Seahorses 3 | 2-5-6 |
| 26 | |
Seahorses 2 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Oaks | 3-4-5 |
| 27 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Warriors | 3-5-6 |
| 28 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Commodores | 4-5-6 |
| 29 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Navigators | 3-4-6 |
| 30 | |
Seahorses 2 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Seahorses 1 | 3-4-5 |
| 31 | |
Seahorses 2 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 3-5-6 |
| 32 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Navigators | 3-4-6 |
| 33 | |
Seahorses 2 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Navigators | 3-5-6 |
| 34 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 4-5-6 DSQ,DSQ,DSQ |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Christchurch School | Seahorses 1 | Bo Angus '25 Elliott Lipp '26 Wylder Smith '27 |
Simone Moss '25 Suzie Nguyen '25 Malia Deane '25 |
|
Norfolk Academy | Bulldogs | Eliana Mopper '26 Jack Poynter '25 James Allgeier '27 |
Anna Iacobucci '25 Amanda Wong '25 Sabrina Casagrande '25 |
|
Hampton Roads Academy | Navigators | Charlie Moore '27 Leila Pfrang '25 Parker Moore '25 |
Nicholas Bielewicz '26 Will Chapman '28 Daphne Ambrosino '27 |
|
Norfolk Collegiate School | Oaks | Alex Salzberg '25 Brandt Adams '30 Chase Duhon-Kovach '29 Jesse Hanenburg '30 |
Jesse Hanenburg '30 Corrine Todd '28 Finian Bohan '27 Maddie Murphy '25 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
